Georgia vs. Texas football prediction: What the analytics say

Posted by author October 16, 2024 Football

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The game of the week comes to us from Austin, as No. 1 Texas returns home in a battle against No. 5 Georgia in college football’s Week 8 action. Let’s take a look at the updated predictions for the game by an expert model that picks winners.

Georgia checks in at 5-1 overall and 3-1 in SEC play and hoping to avoid what would be a costly second conference loss, as the College Football Playoff selection committee will keep a close eye on how this game develops for when they seed the 12 best teams later this year.

Texas is one of college football’s 11 undefeated teams and coming off a dominant, 31-point victory against Oklahoma that heralded the return of quarterback Quinn Ewers at the helm of the nation’s 7th-ranked scoring offense.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

So far, the models are giving the home team a considerable margin over the visitors.

Texas is favored to win the game outright in the majority 76.3 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Georgia as the expected winner in the remaining 23.7 percent of sims.

And the model expects a double-digit victory for the Longhorns over the Bulldogs.

Texas is projected to be 10.7 points better than Georgia on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that would be more than enough to cover the spread.

That’s because Texas is a 3.5 point favorite against Georgia, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 56.5 points for the game.

And it set the moneyline odds for Texas at -190 and for Georgia at +160 to win outright.

Bettors are also giving the benefit of the doubt to the home team, according to the latest spread consensus picks.

Texas is getting 54 percent of bets to win the game and cover the spread.

And the remaining 46 percent of wagers project Georgia will either win in an upset, or keep the game within the narrow line.

Texas is first among SEC teams with a 95.7 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 11.8 games, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model predicts Georgia will win 9.1 games and has a 68.5 percent shot at the playoff.

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

First-place votes in parentheses