Well, the end is near. Florida State announced that Leonard Hamilton will be stepping down following the end of the season, meaning we have about six more weeks with Coach Hamilton at the helm before going in a new direction. It was time, but it’s hard not to feel emotional about this, especially for someone like myself, who spent three seasons in the program.
But the basketball still has to bounce, and Florida State has a game against Notre Dame on Tuesday night. Neither of these teams has looked great recently, but they’ll be looking to get a win here.
This game will be at 7 p.m. EST on the ACC Network, live from the Donald L Tucker Center in Tallahassee, Florida.
(Once again, this will be a little shorter, as this has been arguably the busiest weekend of my life, as I also cover the Dallas Mavericks and some… things… have happened over there. Emotions are still raw, leave me be)
READ MORE: BREAKING: Leonard Hamilton to step down from Florida State at season’s end
Notre Dame entered the season with a little hype because of Markus Burton, and it’s year two under Micah Shrewsberry. I never really bought into it and didn’t think they added enough pieces to this team. So far, it looks like I’m right, as Notre Dame just handed Miami its first ACC win of the season on Saturday and now has to go to Tallahassee.
But get ready for another great three-point shooting team, something Florida State has faced a lot of recently. They’re shooting 37.9% from deep for the season, 25th in the nation, but they’re up to 40.9% in conference play, the best in the ACC. FSU has faced the 2nd and 3rd best teams (Virginia Tech and Boston College) in their last two games and didn’t defend the three well. They don’t turn the ball over much, and they’ve been attacking the offensive glass more in ACC play, but they don’t play defense. Teams are shooting 55.8% on 2s against them in ACC play, and they haven’t done a great job of scoring inside the arc. They also send teams to the free-throw line a lot. It’s one of the slower teams in the country, which, combined with their three-point shooting and low turnover rate, makes their offensive metrics look better than they actually are.
There are four players you have to know: Markus Burton, Tae Davis, Braeden Shrewsberry, and Matt Allocco.
Burton is the leader, averaging 20.1 PPG, 3.4 RPG, and 3.2 APG while shooting 45.7% from the floor and 41.8% from three. He missed seven games earlier in the season, a stretch that Notre Dame went just 3-4. I imagine FSU will do everything they can to take him out of the game, but he’s a smaller, shifty guy at 5’11”, something that has given them some issues over the years.
Tae Davis has taken a massive leap in his third season, up to 15.5 PPG and 5.3 RPG. He’s getting to the free-throw line at a high level, but his defensive metrics aren’t great. If Taylor Bol Bowen is back for this game, this will be a fun matchup.
Braeden Shrewsberry, son of the head coach, is a shooter. 62.5% of his shots come from behind the arc and he’s sinking them at a 37.3% rate. He’s a smaller guy at 6’3″, so he also hasn’t been a great defender.
Matt Allocco is also a shooter, getting 52.1% of his shot attempts from deep, and he’s sinking them at a 47.3% rate. He’s also a solid secondary playmaker, with 3.0 APG to just 0.8 turnovers.
Kebba Njie (solid rebounder, especially on the offensive boards, not a great interior defender) is their other starter, and their bench doesn’t do much of anything. They started Julian Roper II in most of the games that Burton missed, and yet he’s still only averaging 1.9 PPG.
The rest of the season got interesting when Florida State announced on Monday afternoon that Leonard Hamilton will step down at the end of the season. Will the team step up, hoping to send Coach Ham out on a high note? Will they shrink under pressure, knowing their future is uncertain? Will they not care? We’ll have to find out.
It’s hard to lose in a more brutal fashion than FSU did on Saturday against Boston College. They led by 15 in the second half, by seven with less than 50 seconds to go, and lost in regulation. It was a complete and utter collapse; there’s no other way to put it. There are things I could say, but we can chalk some of it up to inexperience.
The availability of Taylor Bol Bowen and Jerry Deng will be the biggest thing to watch for Tuesday. Bowen missed the last game with a head injury but still traveled, while Deng started in his place and then hurt his ankle and was in a boot for the second half.
READ MORE: Who could be the next head coach of Florida State Basketball?
Florida State
G: Daquan Davis
G: Chandler Jackson
F: Jamir Watkins
F: Taylor Bol Bowen
F: Malique Ewin
Notre Dame
G: Markus Burton
G: Braeden Shrewsberry
G: Matt Allocco
F: Tae Davis
F: Kebba Njie
3-Point Defense
This concerns me. Florida State has allowed 10+ made threes in each of their last three games, allowing at least 38% or more from deep, and Notre Dame is arguably the best three-point shooting team in the ACC. That’s a matchup nightmare waiting to happen unless FSU plays elite defense.
2-Point Offense
Notre Dame has one of the worst two-point defenses in the conference, and they have a fine line on their 2-point defense: 4-10 when their opponent shoots 50% or better inside the arc, 6-1 when their opponent is under 50%. FSU’s offense hasn’t been great recently, but they do have some talented slashers.
Head of the Snake – Markus Burton
I expect FSU to do everything they can to take Markus Burton out of the game, kind of like they did with Pitt’s Jaland Lowe for the first half. Burton is a talented scorer and playmaker, so FSU may just do whatever it takes to keep him from getting the ball.
Florida State opened as 1.5-point favorites over Notre Dame with an over/under of 142.5, per FanDuel Sportsbook.
I have no idea how this young team will react to the Coach Hamilton news. I’d like to think they’ll come out with extra energy, but no one really knows. I’ll take FSU to win, but I’m not confident in that at all, as Notre Dame’s three-point shooting could give the Seminoles issues.
Florida State 72, Notre Dame 68
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