It has not been a pretty start to the 2024 NFL season for favorites. Each of the first three weeks has seen some of the biggest favorites getting knocked off. This past week saw the Bucs, Browns, Raiders, 49ers, and Bengals all lose as favorites.

That’s all resulted in some less than stellar picks for me. In last week’s confidence picks, I finished 7-9 overall. My high confidence picks remain a bit of a boondoggle, sitting at 3-6 for the season.

Now that Week 4 is upon us, it’s time for my confidence picks. I predict the winner of every game on the schedule and then attach a confidence level to each pick. The levels are high, medium, and low.

Here’s my full list of picks for Week 4. A game with three asterisks (***) after it indicates a game where I’m picking the betting underdog to get the win. I’ve got three underdogs winning outright this week, but there’s a whole lot of small numbers at the sportsbook this week, so this could get a little nutty.

High confidence (3-6)

Cowboys over Giants
Jets over Broncos
Texans over Jaguars
49ers over Patriots
Chiefs over Chargers

Medium confidence (17-7)

Bengals over Panthers
Vikings over Packers***
Steelers over Colts
Cardinals over Commanders
Lions over Seahawks

Low confidence (7-8)

Falcons over Saints
Rams over Bears***
Eagles over Buccaneers
Raiders over Browns
Ravens over Bills
Titans over Dolphins***