The franchise tag deadline has come and gone. Two players have been tagged: Chiefs guard Trey Smith, due $23.4 million next season, and Bengals wide receiver Tee Higgins, due a whopping $26.2 million in his second year under the tag. There was one player extended just before he was tagged: Cowboys defensive tackle Osa Odighizuwa, who signed a four-year, $80 million extension Tuesday afternoon. And there were a few players who could have, but did not receive the tag. Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold, Buccaneers receiver Chris Godwin and Dolphins safety Jevon Holland will now join unrestricted free agency, which begins with the legal tampering period at noon ET on March 10.

Tag day is far from a hard-and-fast conclusion on all these players. Each can still return to their incumbent teams with big extensions; even those on the tag can still be traded. But the franchise tag deadline does set some dominoes in motion for the free agent period.

Here are my winners and losers from Tuesday’s franchise-tag news, and what each can gain — or lose — from the fallout. Let’s start with both quarterbacks in Minnesota.

coverage:
Grading biggest deals | Best available free agents
Offense free agent tiers | Defense free agent tiers

The upcoming Darnold offseason is going to be a fascinating one. How does the league grade and compensate a player like Darnold, a highly drafted player who blossomed seven years later than expected? His last two games left a sour taste in everyone’s mouth — he was under siege against the Lions in Week 18 and Rams in the wild-card round, and folded accordingly — but his first 16 weeks were really something. There’s a franchise quarterback in Darnold … if another team can replicate what Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell did last season.

That’s the big “if.” While other quarterback reclamations — Baker Mayfield, Geno Smith, Jared Goff — got to stay on the same team, Darnold looks like he’ll have to parlay his lone year of strong production to a job elsewhere, as the Vikings did not franchise tag him. The possibility for a long-term extension in Minnesota remains (read: a multiyear deal that has an escape hatch after one season and a lower 2025 cap hit than the $40.2 million franchise tag would have been), but Darnold is officially on his way to the open market.

The league is always desperate for franchise quarterback play at a discounted rate. Darnold just supplied that, and another franchise will take a big swing that he can do it again. I expect Darnold’s representatives to use the QB-neediness across the league (Raiders, Steelers, Giants, Colts, Titans) to drum up a bidding market that will result in a multiyear contract. That’d be a huge win for a player who needs to cash in now, when his iron is finally hot.

If the market is a little tepid for Darnold, I could see the Vikings keeping his services on an “extension” that’s really just a one-year deal with a few team option years attached — the sort of deal that says, “Hey, if our rookie quarterback isn’t any good, we’ll keep you around as the bridge.” But because Darnold is likely to price the Vikings out, this day is also a win for McCarthy.

Expected to be the Vikings’ starting quarterback as a rookie in 2024, there are a lot of good vibes around McCarthy, who is reportedly recovering well from his August knee injury. With that said, the pressure will be on. If McCarthy shows growing pains after a month, Vikings fans will start grumbling about how quickly Darnold started succeeding for them and how even Joshua Dobbs won a game mere days after he was acquired in 2023. The Vikings spent plenty of money last offseason and will likely push all their chips into the middle by spending again this offseason. So McCarthy does not have a long leash to figure things out.

The leash would get even shorter if Darnold were on the Vikings’ bench. But with the tag day passed, he is less likely to be in Minnesota long-term than he was yesterday, and that creates some breathing room for McCarthy to go through the inevitable rocky development that all young players endure.

As I see it now, Darnold’s going to get paid, and McCarthy’s going to get an unimpeded shot at Minnesota’s starting job. Win-win.

Higgins was franchised-tagged by Cincinnati for the second consecutive year, which is a lose-lose situation. It’s bad for the Bengals, who would have better control over their cap space if they just signed him to a long-term extension. But it’s also bad for Higgins, who is making less money in the short (and potentially in the long) term.

The second franchise tag is 120% of the value of the first franchise tag. Higgins made $20.6 million on the tag last season, so he’ll make $26.2 million in 2025. All of that money is guaranteed, but from a two-year cash flow perspective, he is pocketing $46.8 million. Had he hit the open market in the 2024 offseason as a 25-year-old with a WR1 ceiling, Higgins would have easily cleared the top contract signed that offseason. (Calvin Ridley signed for $48 million in two-year cash flow as a 29-year-old with a worse résumé than Higgins.)

Of course, Higgins can still pocket the two tags and sign a big extension next offseason, when the Bengals can no longer tag him. If the overall salary cap continues to grow faster than expected, he could get an enormous pay day. But that’s if and only if he continues to produce. Higgins played in only 12 games last season because of nagging injuries. (He’s now missed time with a hamstring issue in three consecutive seasons.) It was still a highly productive 2024 — he ranked eighth in EPA per target among receivers with at least 75 targets — but the Bengals offense only afforded him 12.5 yards per reception, the worst single-season number of his career.

play

‘Disrespectful!’ Chad Johnson calls out Bengals for franchise-tagging Tee Higgins

Former Bengals great Chad Johnson calls out the team for applying the franchise tag on WR Tee Higgins.

The league isn’t dumb. Higgins is clearly great, and some team will eventually pay him big money. But he has dealt with injury for much of his career and has to avoid a major one for one more season, which is never a sure thing.

It’s also possible the second tag is just a placeholder for a big extension — the Bengals have been very clear they want to get a big deal done with Higgins. But remember, Ja’Marr Chase still needs an extension after already holding out from training camp last season. Extend Higgins on the tag before the July 15 deadline, and run the risk of upsetting Chase even further. Sign Chase to a big extension when Higgins has been tagged twice, and run the risk of burning the tenuous bridge with Higgins. This situation requires a deft hand.

The tag is never good for players, and the double tag is doubly bad. Expect teams to make strong trade offers for Higgins, as the Bengals become increasingly worried they won’t get an extension done and might risk losing him for nothing but a compensatory pick next offseason.

Forty-eight hours ago, the Cowboys looked like they might franchise tag Odighizuwa. It was a defensible move — he has been their lone bright spot in a poor defensive tackle room, ranking fourth and seventh in pressure rate among the league’s tackles over the past two seasons. But his tag would have cost the Cowboys $25.1 million this season — a huge number.

Instead, Odighizuwa was signed to a four-year, $80 million extension mere hours before the tag deadline. This is good news for Parsons in a few ways. First, he’ll continue playing beside one of the best penetration tackles in football (for as long as he remains a Cowboy). Odighizuwa’s quick disruption also helps Parsons produce. Had Odighizuwa left in free agency, opposing teams could easily dedicate more pass-protection resources to Parsons in each game.

The structure of Odighizuwa’s deal is also important to Parsons. For a long time under team owner Jerry Jones, the Cowboys insisted on five-year extensions that allowed them to retain maximum team control of their star players. Recently, they have been leveraged into four-year deals by Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and now Odighizuwa. Parsons is 26 with one year remaining on his deal but is eligible for a new deal now — if he signs a four-year extension, he’ll hit the market again when he’s 30, and he have a longer remaining window of prime production with which to cash in on another deal.

The size of the Odighizuwa extension is also good news for Parsons. At $20 million per year, he’s the league’s 14th-highest paid tackle. That feels about right for his skill set. It’s rare that an extension is done at a fair price — usually, numbers get inflated. I’m surprised Odighizuwa came in below Daron Payne (Washington) and Javon Hargrave (San Francisco), whom he has outproduced by leaps and bounds. The more money Dallas has over the next four years, the more likely it is to sign Parsons to what he deserves: the biggest non-quarterback contract in NFL history.

Projections by Roster Management System have the Patriots with roughly $129 million in cap space for 2025, which agents, salary cap analysts and other experts in the industry technically define as “a boatload of cash.” The next closest team is the Raiders, who have less than $100 million.

You know who the Patriots would have loved to spend some of that $129 million on? Higgins. They’re in desperate need of a star wide receiver, a clear X on the outside and a dominant force around whom the offense can be built. Stylistically, he was also a good fit with Drake Maye: Higgins wins on deep balls against the sideline, and Maye loves to give his receivers chances.

Now, the Patriots cannot give that money to Higgins because he has been tagged.

You know who else the Patriots would have loved to spend some of that money on? Trey Smith. He has been a tentpole at guard for Kansas City since he was drafted in the sixth round of the 2021 draft. A mauler of a run blocker who still hangs in pass protection, Smith would have paired well stylistically with Mike Onwenu and David Andrews, while settling some of the rampant uncertainty in that group.

Now, the Patriots cannot give that money to Smith because he has been tagged.

The Patriots still have plenty of interesting players to throw money at, potentially including Godwin, Eagles defensive tackle Milton Williams, Jets corner D.J. Reed and Ravens tackle Ronnie Stanley. And hey, massive free agent deals go awry more often than they go well. But the two best free agents in this class were Higgins and Smith; they both fit the Patriots’ needs perfectly, and they’re now both off the table. Sometimes, that’s just how the cookie crumbles.

Without Higgins, the already-thin wide receiver class just got thinner. In fact, it isn’t just a poor year for the free agent pool; the draft class is also unspectacular at the position. This is simply not a good season for teams to need a receiver.

As such, those precious few good options become exactly that: precious. Without question, Godwin is the best receiver available. He just turned 29, making him one of the youngest options in this weirdly old class that includes Stefon Diggs, Keenan Allen, Amari Cooper, Brandin Cooks and DeAndre Hopkins, who are all over 30. Godwin is also highly productive: He has played at least 14 games in four of the past six seasons, and in all four of those seasons, he cleared 1,000 yards.

In 2024, Godwin was on a career pace with 50 catches for 576 yards through seven games. In a 17-game season, it would have been 121 catches and 1,398 yards. Among receivers with at least 50 targets last season, Godwin was ninth in both EPA per target and yards per route run. Of course, Godwin didn’t finish the season — he dislocated his ankle late in Week 7 and has now failed to play a full season in five of the past six years. An acquiring team should expect Godwin to miss some time each season, but he has played through countless minor injuries and is deservedly considered a tough guy.

Godwin was not tagged by the Buccaneers, which means he is one step closer to the free market. He’s a lifelong Buccaneer to this point and seems interested in returning, but the Bucs prepared for this potential departure by drafting Jalen McMillan in 2024, and McMillan showed out last season. Now, any team desperate to pay a big-name wide receiver (Patriots, Chargers, Raiders, Steelers) will rush to Godwin’s agent. A bidding war could easily get him a bigger contract than expected.

Of course, there’s a trickle-down effect here. If Godwin stays in Tampa, maybe a team takes a bigger risk on Hollywood Brown or banks on Cooper having a couple of good years left in him. The trade market also becomes more robust. Rumors around Brandon Aiyuk swirled before teammate Deebo Samuel Sr. was dealt, and rumors continue on Rams receiver Cooper Kupp. But what about Metcalf, who has only one year left on his deal? Does Tyreek Hill‘s market reignite? Can Adams keep up his high level of play after being released from the Jets? Higgins was the first domino to fall in the receiver market, and Godwin should be next.