Amir Satvat has been churning out one study after another on the game job market, and his latest one shows that those seeking game jobs are often forced to take jobs outside the industry.

That’s not particularly good news for those job seekers, but the silver lining is that at least many of them find jobs.

In his latest report, there is more data that isn’t quite as bleak as it seemed before. Satvat, who works at Tencent in business development by day, has been providing game job resources by night to those who need it. And from that, he has gained more than 100,000 followers on LinkedIn and turned up a lot of data on game job seekers since November 2022. He now has about 22 months of solid data from that community.

One survey of 1,200-plus game people showed that on average they have 10% chance of finding a games job within 12 months. That’s better than previous data that showed the odds were about 7% to 8%. Those earlier numbers were lower as they only included people who said they were done with their search and are not underemployed or in contract work.

“I don’t release major findings until I’m confident they’re accurate, and with our community’s placements now surpassing 2,800, plus significant data on games job seekers (much of it retroactively collected), I now have a clearer picture of the games job search landscape,” Satvat said in a post.

Many things can affect a job search. In a panel at our GamesBeat Next 2024 event last week, Satvat noted that he didn’t find a job in the game industry until he was 38. Part of the reason was he would only take remote work in Connecticut, where he has family.

By month 22 of a job search, the odds of finding a games job reach 16%. And now, for the first time, Satvat said he has overall job search odds for game job seekers. This includes everyone in his community looking for a games role, not just those laid off.

The data show that many eventually broaden their search, particularly those who never worked in games to begin with. By month 12, the odds of finding any job are 54%. By comparison, the chances of game veterans finding a job in 12 months are one in four. And by month 22, the odds of finding any job for all game job seekers is 71%. This means that expanding your search beyond games significantly improves chances.

A lost generation?

You can improve your chances of finding any job by five times if you look outside of games. Much of the data in the community skews toward younger job seekers and game-focused job seekers. Satvat believes about a third of the 33,000 people laid off in games since 2022 are still job hunting.

At our event last week, Satvat said he worries there is a “lost generation” on both sides of the career arc. At the beginning, many graduating college students aren’t finding jobs in games. And for those 50 and older, ageism means that their odds of finding jobs are at 1% to 2% after a year of searching — just as bad as it is for those with less than three years of experience. It’s worth noting the odds improve for those who use Satvat’s 17 different job resources.

Satvat acknowledged that there are a small (and really unknown) number of people who turn a Roblox user-generated content gig into a full-time job. It may very well be that this has become the ground floor for getting jobs in the game industry.

Satvat noted that about 11,000 people were laid off in games in the first half of 2024, and the second half of the year it slowed down. He expects no more than 4,000 job cuts in the second half of 2024. He sees a crossover, where hiring will exceed firing on a 60-month trailing basis for the first time in years, happening in December.

This is why job placements are well below general unemployment – a big piece is those affected by the 32,000 cuts. We know a third of this population is still looking for work.

At months 16 and beyond, some job seekers may stop reporting due to discouragement and other factors.

“I’m cautious about overinterpreting the rate of increase here, but I believe the general pattern is accurate,” he said.

This data includes all job seekers aiming for roles in games, not only those with prior experience. Thus, not all of the gap between the blue and orange lines reflects an exodus. You can think of this gap as those who wish to work in games but can’t.

Why total job placement is only 71% over 22 months for gamers

In a follow-up post, Satvat said the biggest question he received since the post is why the 22-month total job odds for games jobseekers remain at only 71%.

“This is a complex issue, but I have some initial theories, based on both data and qualitative observations, which I plan to test thoroughly in the coming months,” he said.

He said one factor is that the percentage of games professionals who end up underemployed (in lower-paying roles that don’t cover living expenses), in fractional or contract work, or in other non-full-time roles (which I don’t count as off our still-searching list) has become a much larger part of the picture than people might expect.

There are some other reasons he is considering and will test for. He noted games qualifications, in many instances, are less transferable to other jobs than people think.

He noted that having only 14% of jobs in games as remote and a high geographic concentration – around 75% of North American roles being in just five states or regions – creates significant reemployment challenges.

Many in the community (he repeatedly tests at roughly a 50/50% mix for the members) aren’t open to relocating, and that further complicates reemployment. He also noted that there is ageism and early-career bias, which freezes out both newcomers to the market and those ages over 40 to 50-plus at higher rates than many realize.

“Some people are so passionate about games that, despite what they say, they’re reluctant to seriously pursue non-games roles,” he said.

In repeated surveys of his community and data collection, he said 45% of searchers have been out of work for a year or more. He also said he knows the number of games professionals laid off from 2022 through 2024 year to date, thanks to good reporting.

Based on the repeated community polls with thousands of responses, he knows that 30% to 40% of all laid-off games professionals were still looking for work as of two to three months ago.

And in a third post, Satvat asaid that, beyond just the odds of finding a job in games, he looked at the likelihood of securing any type of job for games job seekers.

Instead of only offering a “point-in-time” statistic for finding a job within 12 months, he attempted, for the first time, to chart the monthly odds offinding a games job, a non-games job, or any job over a span of one to 22 months.

The surprising takeaway that has gotten the most attention was that, over a 22-month period, the odds of games jobseekers finding any job was just 71%. He created some scenarios in a hypothetical chart.

He noted the figures below aren’t actual data points but serve as hypothetical examples. These scenarios reflect the kind of data he is continuing to refine, with the goal of making it more precise.

Imagine, hypothetically, that 15,000 people secure games jobs in 22 months. In healthier times, 25% of job seekers find roles in games, before recent layoffs.

With 60,000 games jobseekers, 15,000 find games jobs, while the other 45,000 need to find work outside of games. In more stable times, Satvat assumed 95% of people achieve full employment by month 22 – this means 42,750 find non-games roles, leaving 2,250 unfulfilled. In this scenario, the games industry and adjacent fields are absorbing enough talent to minimize slack.

Now consider a more stressed scenario: imagine an influx of 33,750 more jobseekers into the pool over three years – which is not hypothetical at all (some sources estimate 32,000, but Satvat believes it’s closer to 33,750).

If the same 15,000 games roles are available, the placement rate in games drops to 16%, leaving 78,750 games jobseekers. If we assume a hypothetical 71% of jobseekers find employment in 22 months, then 55,913 people secure non-games jobs, with 22,838 remaining without a role.

Over time, as job seekers become more flexible or shift markets, this “slack” could diminish, and one would see a return to the healthier scenario on top.

Again, these figures are illustrative, but they highlight why 71% is not surprising given the shock to the system. In normal times, the games placement rate over 22 months could be much higher.

Historically, the games industry averaged 1,000 to 2,000 layoffs a year, not 10,000-plus, so until recent years, the first scenario was more typical.

“I believe, and hope, that things will return to that norm sooner rather than later,” he said.