This Friday’s “Football Footnotes” is our annual “Super Bowl Bets” edition as we get ready for Sunday’s Showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles.

Last year was a rough one. On the plus side, I went 3-for-4 with bets on the Chiefs and their players. Unfortunately, I went a hideous 0-for-5 with bets on the San Francisco 49ers and their players.

One of those losses was me betting that 49ers QB Brock Purdy would exceed 12.5 rushing yards. He ended up with 12 on the nose.

That’s sports gambling in a nutshell.

This year, we aim to bounce back by trying to hit big on some very specific prop bets. All lines I reference will be from BetRivers.com.

• In my opinion, the basic bets are some of the hardest ones on the board this year. Regardless of how much I respect the Eagles (and I really do, Philly, as much as I hate to admit it), if you are telling me that all Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs need to do to win a postseason game is cover a one-point spread, I’m picking the Chiefs.

• I’m leaving the over-under alone. The more I think about it, the more I think 48.5 is pretty much a perfect number. It’s a coin flip. Do what you like there. I’m placing my money elsewhere.

• Picking Mahomes to win the MVP feels pretty basic to me. But he is still at plus-105. So, why not? If it’s that obvious and it is still a plus-money bet, take it.

• If you are a Philly bettor and you want to play the MVP column, I say go with Jalen Hurts. His payout (plus-350) is better than Saquon Barkley’s (plus-250) in the first place. And, generally speaking, I think if Philadelphia is going to win this game, Hurts is going to have to be a difference-maker.

Barkley is going to have to be good. The Chiefs will focus their entire defensive attack on him. He’ll still shine. But if the Eagles win, I’m assuming Hurts will be the bigger story on Monday morning if they pull off the mild upset.

• If Hurts is our Philly pick to win MVP, he is going to score at least one “Tush-Push” touchdown. I’ll take Hurts to score a TD at minus-134.

• Let’s try to hit a home run with the local kid on the K.C. side. Throw a small bet down on South Fayette’s Justin Watson to score a TD for the Chiefs. The Steelers lost him in the red zone on Christmas Day for a touchdown. He caught a two-point conversion in the AFC Championship game. He is a sneaky-reliable target for Mahomes, and a score for him pays out at a healthy plus-1600.

CHRISTMAS DAY HOMECOMING FOR J WAT ???? pic.twitter.com/xbL8MfaxGt

— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) December 25, 2024

The Chiefs extend the lead to 7 ????

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????: Stream on @NFLPlus and Paramount+ pic.twitter.com/hX2dry08Rv

— NFL (@NFL) January 27, 2025

• Speaking of two-point conversions, the Chiefs are usually creative in that category. The Eagles converted three this season. It’s going to be a close game. It’s plus-105 to make a bet that either team will try a two-point conversion. It’s plus-200 that either team will convert one. I’ll put my money on both things happening.

• So much of Philadelphia’s coverage is going to be thrown at Travis Kelce and Xavier Worthy that I expect some other Chiefs players to be open for Mahomes. I’ll take Noah Gray over 11.5 receiving yards (at minus-108) and JuJu Smith-Schuster at over 16.5 (minus-113). Gray may also be a smart touchdown payout at plus-550 if you don’t like the Watson pick.

More sports

• With Sidney Crosby’s status uncertain, the Penguins consider their options at center
• Pirates to sign veteran OF Tommy Pham to 1-year, $4.025M contract
• Antonio Gates, Jared Allen, Eric Allen, Sterling Sharpe make Pro Football HOF

• Do you think this is going to be a close game throughout? I do. BetRivers says that the largest lead at any point in the game will be 13.5 points. I’m going under that total at minus-110.

• Lastly, here’s a bet that I love. Throw down a big chunk on the Chiefs at minus-1.5 in the second half. The payout is plus-116.

My methodology is that if the Chiefs are losing in the second half, Mahomes is going to lead them back to at least cover in the last 30 minutes. And, as The Ringer pointed out, if there is any validity to the cries of “The Chiefs get all the calls” from the refs, that usually happens when Mahomes has the ball late in a close game.

Also, if the Eagles are chasing after halftime, and Barkley is minimized in comeback efforts because Hurts has to throw, that’ll help the Kansas City cause too.

Well, unless my “Hurts for MVP” campaign kicks in, then all bets are off.

Except that all bets are never off. Unless there is a natural disaster. Or coronavirus. Or an act of God.

Come to think of it, that’s a stupid saying. Don’t listen to it.

And based on my results last year, maybe you shouldn’t listen to me either.

Listen: Jeff Erickson of RotoWire helps us with some Super Bowl lines and personal prop bets