Flutter, the New York-listed owner of online betting platform FanDuel, warned on Tuesday of a hit to its profits from a hot streak of winning bets by customers on US sporting events.
In an unexpected trading update, Flutter said that the 2024-25 NFL American football season so far had been the most “customer friendly” since the launch of online sports betting, with the highest rate of favourites winning in nearly 20 years.
This had led to “very unfavourable US sports results” for the group for much of November and into December, primarily from complicated combination bets across a number of games or within the same game.
Flutter said its biggest single loss during the quarter came on Monday, December 30, when the Detroit Lions’ 40-34 win over the San Francisco 49ers cost it $74mn. The game featured nine different touchdown scorers, many of them popular players with betting customers.
Up to the end of December, Flutter said the favourite had won 184 of the first 256 games of the season, with 77 per cent of the heavier-backed teams winning during the company’s fourth reporting quarter. Games had also seen higher scores than expected.
Flutter said it would take a hit to revenues of about $390mn and adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation of $260mn for the period November 12 to December 31.
The company said that gross gaming revenue (GGR) — a key metric reflecting the difference between the amount wagered minus the amount paid out in winnings — would be about $438mn lower.
As a result, US revenue forecasts for 2024 would be about $370mn lower than the previous guidance midpoint at $5.78bn. After incremental one-off cost mitigations, 2024 US adjusted ebitda is estimated to be about $205mn lower than the previous guidance midpoint of $505mn.
Flutter added that results outside the US had been better for it, with the UK in particular yielding favourable outcomes in the English Premier League. This meant it had raised its estimated 2024 revenue and adjusted ebitda figures by about 1 per cent and 2 per cent, respectively, higher than the midpoints of previous guidance for operations outside the US.
Flutter, which also owns Paddy Power, quit the UK’s FTSE 100 index by moving its primary listing to New York last year.
The group said last year that it was expecting to more than double its core profit by 2027, with the US accounting for nearly half, owing to higher frequency of betting than previously estimated.
