The initial rankings for the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff were released Tuesday night. Five more sets of rankings will drop before the field is officially set. The rankings pieced together by the selection committee provide the first look into what the expanded playoff could look like and the logic behind the seedings.
If the College Football Playoff started Wednesday, first-round matchups would take place in Columbus, Knoxville, Austin and State College. That’s exciting for the sport. Plenty more needs to shake out in the upcoming weeks.
On3 is breaking down the five biggest takeaways from Tuesday night’s rankings reveal:
The SEC and Big Ten met in a Nashville hotel ballroom last month to discuss scheduling partnerships and the impending House v. NCAA settlement. College Football Playoff automatic bids were also expected to be on the agenda. Last spring, the Big Ten proposed having the two conferences receive three to four automatic bids.
“I want to see what happens with the evaluation (of those at-large bids),” SEC commissioner Greg Sankey said in Nashville when asked about the possibility of more automatic bids.
Turns out, no automatic bids beyond the five for conference champions are needed with the current format. In the first College Football Playoff rankings released Wednesday night, four Big Ten and four SEC teams were seeded in the 12-team bracket. That can still change with four weeks remaining in the season, but the two conferences are positioned to land the most teams in the inaugural expanded playoff without the help of more automatic bids.
One-loss Penn State, who came in at No. 6, is ranked higher than No. 8 Indiana, who remains undefeated. The Hoosiers have a scoring differential of plus-296. Indiana has trailed only once this season – last weekend against Michigan State before blowing away the Spartans in a 47-10 victory. The Hoosiers will have their opportunities to prove the committee wrong these new few weeks with matchups against Michigan and Ohio State. Penn State does have a tougher schedule, with an FPI strength of schedule of 28. But the Nittany Lions don’t have a quality win. On the flip side, Indiana has won every game by 14 points or more.
College Football Playoff Committee ranked Penn State over SMU and Indiana due to its logo
Entering Tuesday night, where Notre Dame landed in the first rankings reveal was a question many were watching. The Fighting Irish ultimately took the No. 10 spot and with it a berth in the CFP if the playoff started on Wednesday. Notre Dame has wins over No. 14 Texas A&M and No. 22 Louisville, but the committee did not forget the loss to Northern Illinois. The Huskies are 4-4 and 1-3 in the MAC. The Fighting Irish have now won six straight with four games remaining. Another loss, however, and Notre Dame could be on the outside looking in on Dec. 8. Because the Fighting Irish are not in a conference, they must secure one of the seven at-large bids.
Tuesday night confirmed that Boise State controls its destiny. The Broncos debuted at No. 12 in the College Football Playoff rankings. But with just four games left against opponents that are 14-21 combined, the Broncos can climb up the rankings and possibly secure a first-round bye or host a first-round game on the blue turf. Boise State is 7-1, with its lone loss coming in September at Oregon 37-34. Just two other Group of Five schools made the CFP Top 25 – Washington State and Army. The Cougars can’t qualify for a conference championships bid either.
Last weekend’s bye was beneficial for the Colorado Buffaloes as chaos hit the Big 12. Deion Sanders now has a clear path to the College Football Playoff if the Buffaloes continue to take care of business.
Iowa State fell to 4-1 in Big 12 play, slipping up at home to Texas Tech. Later on Saturday, Kansas State dropped to 4-2 in a loss to Houston. The losses left just one undefeated Big 12 team remaining – BYU – as the Buffaloes are now tied with Iowa State in second place in league standings.
Colorado is 4-1 in league play and travels to Texas Tech this weekend before finishing the season with Utah, Kansas and Oklahoma State, which are a combined 9-17 on the season. Texas Tech is a 3.5-point favorite at home, according to FanDuel.
Colorado debuted at No. 20 in the initial College Football Playoff rankings. Iowa State still has meetings with Kansas State and Cincinnati, both of which sit in the upper half of the Big 12 standings. BYU has a clear path to finish 12-0 with visits to Utah and Arizona State while hosting Kansas and Houston.
On3’s Ari Wasserman had the Buffaloes listed as one of his first four out in Sunday’s College Football Playoff Bubble Watch. But that can change if Colorado keeps winning. ESPN’s FPI currently gives the Buffaloes a 15% chance to make the College Football Playoff.
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