First and 10: Buckle up, the road to the new College Football Playoff road begins this week

Posted by Admin November 6, 2024 Football

There were unpredictable results in the recent college football weekend and some questions raised. Matt Hayes weighs in with his First-and-10 column looking at the key topic across the country ahead of Week 11.

1. The CFP: the playoff begins now

Looking back with clear eyes and full hearts, I ask you one simple question.

How stupid were we?

How shortsighted, as the college football whole, were we for more than 100 years to buy into a nonsensical bowl game and voting process to find a national champion?

Before we dig deep into the beautiful symphony of the new 12-team College Football Playoff, where Vanderbilt — holy mother of pigskin, Vanderbilt — still has a chance to reach the CFP promised land, let’s briefly recap the evolution of lunacy that brought us to this glorious final month of the regular season.

Random sportswriters (I’m a card-carrying member) and television bobbleheads once voted to decide the best teams in the nation.

Then those same media members joined forces with – ready for this? – computer geeks, and came up with a “formula” to decide a one-game playoff. A f-f-f-f-ormula.

Then a selection committee of primarily former coaches and athletic directors (see: fox, meet henhouse) chose four teams to play in the new CFP.

Finally, mercifully, we’ve moved to a true playoff of 12 teams, one that still has a quirky selection process (more on that later) but less margin for error.

Welcome, everyone, to your new CFP. Not a month from now when a selection committee meets for the final time under the cloak of an invisible process to select the fortunate souls moving forward.

Right now.

Georgia at Ole Miss? Playoff game. Alabama at LSU? Playoff game.

Colorado at Texas Tech, Michigan at Indiana, Washington at Penn State, Utah at BYU — CFP implications, all.

This is every game matters, the old college football talking point used to sell an exclusive postseason club — where November was an inevitable coronation of Alabama, Ohio State, Georgia, Oklahoma and/or Clemson instead of this wild, 25-team demolition derby.

“Everything is still in front of us,” Penn State coach James Franklin said after last week’s loss to Ohio State.

In a four-team CFP field, Penn State’s “everything” is a loaded roster of NFL prospects opting out of a meaningless bowl game.

Now it’s another chance for Franklin (and Penn State) to win a game of significance. And maybe much more.

UP AND DOWN: Big Ten, Clemson playoff ranking winners and losers

BOWL PROJECTIONS: Playoff gets three new teams after Week 10 upsets

2. The SEC and the CFP

It’s the second week of November, and there are eight SEC teams with a legitimate chance to reach the CFP. The problem: they’ll eat each other on the way to the finish line.

Meanwhile, there’s everyone else in college football, where a handful of games will determine guaranteed spots for champions of the ACC, Big 12 and Group of Five. Even the Big Ten, the SEC’s sister super conference, is essentially down to four teams — two of which (Indiana, Penn State) don’t have a win of significance.

In fact, Penn State won’t have a signature win, and Indiana — unless it beats Ohio State in two weeks — won’t, too. But because of fortunate conference scheduling, both will reach the CFP with 11-win seasons.

SEC commissioner Greg Sankey won’t publicly say it (yet), but this is why he has consistently advocated for 12 at-large selections from the committee when the new CFP contract begins in 2026.

It is here where we introduce South Carolina, which lost by three points to LSU and two points to Alabama – games it could’ve, and probably should’ve, won – and has a chance to win nine games be better (and hotter) than half the CFP field.

But there’s no place for South Carolina in the CFP, and more than likely only four spots available to the SEC — unless Notre Dame loses to Florida State, Virginia, Army or Southern California.

The 2026 CFP format hasn’t been set, but don’t think the 2024 lineup won’t impact the current negotiations. There’s also a real possibility that a two-loss SEC team could be left out, with a scenario where six SEC teams finish with two conference losses.

3. Every game matters, The Epilogue

If you don’t believe politics have been involved in the CFP selection process, you obviously haven’t followed along since the first playoff vote in 2014.

2014: TCU beat Iowa State 55-3 on the final week of the season, and dropped from No. 3 to No. 6. And who got in the field? Just a couple of giant television properties (Ohio State, Florida State), one the unbeaten defending national champion.

2016: Penn State beat Ohio State and won the Big Ten — and Ohio State (see: giant television property) was still the choice as the Nittany Lions had two losses.

2017: Auburn beat Alabama by 12 to finish the regular season, lost to Georgia in the SEC championship game rematch of the regular-season game won by Auburn (both games were blowouts) — and dropped out of the CFP from No. 2 to No. 7. Guess who got in? Alabama.

2020: The Big Ten changed its return to play rules — in the middle of the pandemic season — to make unbeaten Ohio State eligible for the playoff.

2023: Florida State became the first undefeated Power Five conference team to not make the CFP, and No. 1 Georgia lost by three to Alabama in the SEC championship game and didn’t make the field. (Alabama did, again).

There’s too much money at stake with the new CFP contract ($1.2 billion annually) to endure more of the politics. But if you think a two-loss Ohio State (with a loss to Indiana and no place in the the Big Ten championship game) and two-loss Alabama aren’t getting into the field, I’ve got a Big Ten invite to FSU to sell you.

4. Colorado: November reign

We all scoffed at Colorado in the first month of the season. Couldn’t protect quarterback Shedeur Sanders, couldn’t stop anyone on defense.

Now the Buffs, one of two one-loss teams in Big 12 play (Iowa State) trailing unbeaten Brigham Young, aren’t that far from playing in the conference championship game for a spot in the CFP.

It begins with Saturday’s game at Texas Tech, the biggest obstacle to an unbeaten November that includes games against Utah, at Kansas and Oklahoma State. From one of the worst Power Five conference teams at the end of 2023, to playing for a spot in the CFP a year later.

While Colorado will more than likely need Iowa State to lose again to jump the Cyclones in the tiebreaker and play in the Big 12 championship, it may not come to that. If the Buffs have six consecutive wins to close the regular season, they’re potentially an attractive team for the CFP selection committee.

Imagine sitting in that selection committee room, knowing Deion Sanders and his giant personality — with his elite quarterback and son, and the possible Heisman Trophy winner (Travis Hunter) — could be part of the first 12-team CFP.

A ratings extravaganza the likes of which the sport has never seen.

5. The Weekly Five: the Heisman hunt

The top five Heisman Trophy candidates with one month to play (ranked in order of ability to win it):

1. QB Dillon Gabriel, Oregon: Impressive numbers leading the No. 1 team in the sport. That typically translates to Heisman winner.

2. QB Cam Ward, Miami: Will have the best statistics of any player, but will Miami’s soft schedule be a distraction?

3. WR/CB Travis Hunter, Colorado: It has become a quarterback award, but it’s hard to overlook the best player in the country.

4. RB Ashton Jeanty, Boise State: Barry Sanders’ single season rushing record is likely out of reach, but 2,000 yards isn’t.

5. QB Kurtis Rourke, Indiana: Don’t kid yourself, if Rourke leads the Hoosiers to a win at Ohio State, he shoots into the top three with a legitimate chance to win it.

6. An NFL scout’s take: Maryland WR Tai Felton

An NFL scout analyzes a draft eligible player. The scout requested anonymity to protect the team’s draft preparation.

“Before this season, it was (Maryland WR) Kaden Prather. The big guy who can run, the DK Metcalf mold. But I always liked Felton. He’s explosive and twitchy, and he’s long with a terrific catch radius. He’s an aggressive target. He goes and gets it, and fights for it no matter where the ball is thrown. He’s clearly having a breakout season, but what really shows is the fluidity he plays with. It’s smooth now, no hesitation.”

7. Power Play: Penn State falling, SMU rising

This week’s College Football Playoff power poll, and one big thing.

1. Oregon: Since giving up 34 points in a three-point win over Boise State in Week 2, the Ducks have given up an average of 11.8 ppg.

2. Georgia: I have all kinds of concern about QB Carson Beck and the overall vibe. It just hasn’t looked right since mid-September (with the exception of the Texas win).

3. Miami: Other than the win over Florida State (the worst Power Four conference offense), Miami has given up 34, 38, 45 and 31 points in four games against unranked ACC opponents.

4. BYU: It’s the Holy War, it’s in Salt Lake City and a 8:15 p.m. local kick. Things are about to get crazy in Utah.

5. Ohio State: The goal for the next two weeks: stay healthy in inevitable routs of Purdue and Northwestern, before Indiana comes to town.

6. Tennessee: He’s a redshirt freshman, and he’s still navigating the SEC. But QB Nico Iamaleava must start hitting deep throws for this team to reach its potential.

7. Texas: Longhorns get a Florida team that was beginning to figure it out, rolling into Austin with a walk-on freshman quarterback replacing two starters (Graham Mertz, DJ Lagway).

8. Indiana: So Michigan has four losses, so what? Time for Hoosiers to make a statement against a Big Ten blue blood.

9. Notre Dame: If the Fighting Irish doesn’t win out to reach the CFP, it would be a bigger upset (and crushing blow to coach Marcus Freeman) than losing to Northern Illinois.

10. Alabama: Beat LSU in Baton Rouge, and the Tide is a lock for the CFP with what’s still ahead (Mercer, at Oklahoma, Auburn).

11. Ole Miss: No team will jump more in the CFP with a win this week over Georgia.

12. Boise State: Broncos are two breakdowns on special teams from being unbeaten, and among the first four ranked teams in the nation.

13. Penn State: There’s no way to change the ugly narrative of the Ohio State loss with games against Washington, at Purdue, at Minnesota and Maryland.

14. LSU: This is far and away coach Brian Kelly’s worst LSU team, and he still may be able to cobble together a CFP invite with a win over Alabama and a favorable remainder of the schedule (at Florida, Vanderbilt, Oklahoma).

15. SMU: A dangerous team on two fronts: good enough to beat Miami in the ACC championship game, and to force the committee to eventually make a difficult decision on the Canes.

16. Colorado: Buffs have gotten better week after week, a sign of good coaching and a team investing in the process of winning.

8. Mail bonding: The Lincoln Riley problem at USC

Matt: Help me, man. Please tell me I don’t have to watch much more of Lincoln Riley at USC. — Tony Bishop, Manhattan Beach, Calif.

Tony:

Unless big money boosters at USC want to pay what could be the largest buyout in the history of college football, you’re looking at multiple seasons of Riley trying to figure it out.

Because USC is a private school, it doesn’t have to release contract details. But let’s say we go by the widely reported deal of $110 million over 10 years (though many believe that to be low). That means Riley is three years into his USC tenure, and would be owed seven years of the guaranteed deal — or $77 million.

Texas A&M recently paid Jimbo Fisher a record $77.5 million to not coach, and if the reported initial deal with Riley is low, he could be paid more than Fisher. Riley has lost 10 of his last 16 games, but more damaging, former players are beginning to question the direction of the program — including LenDale White’s NSFW rant on X after USC’s fifth Big Ten loss in its first season in the conference.

But former players blowing off steam on social media, and boosters coming up with $70-plus million, is an entirely different story. That’s a hefty buyout, even with the new cash flow from Big Ten media rights.

9. Numbers game: Gators sacked

19.5. Virginia Tech edge Antwaun Powell-Ryland leads the nation in sacks (12), and Ole Miss edge Princely Umanmielen (7½ sacks) is 11th.

The common denominator? Both were players Florida coach Billy Napier inherited from the Dan Mullen era, and both stayed and played for Napier — before eventually leaving. They have combined for 19½ sacks this season, while Florida has 19 as a team.

Florida has six sacks in four losses this season, and 15 in four wins.

10. The final word: Nebraska’s Big Red fade

Nebraska hasn’t been to the postseason since 2016, and after beginning this season with five wins in six games, the only question was where loyal Huskers fans would be vacationing in December.

After three consecutive losses, there are now three more opportunities to qualify for a bowl game: at USC, Wisconsin, at Iowa. In other words, it’s not looking good.

The way freshman QB Dylan Raiola is playing of late (1 TD, 6 INT in the last four games), Nebraska needs an upset over the final month of the regular season to prevent a seven-year bowl-less streak from reaching eight.

Matt Hayes is the senior national college football writer for USA TODAY Sports Network. Follow him on X at @MattHayesCFB.