Fire & Ice: Top starts, sits and sleepers in fantasy football for Week 6

Posted by Admin October 11, 2024 Football

• Keep plugging in D’Andre Swift with confidence: The Bears’ offense is looking on the up-and-up with D’Andre Swift thriving. Swift has finished as the fantasy RB2 and RB3 over the past two weeks and now gets to face the Jaguars, who are one of the fantasy-friendliest defenses against running backs this season.

• Jalen Tolbert is a must-start in Week 6: Tolbert played 90% of the Cowboys’ offensive snaps and led the team with 10 targets in Week 5 with teammate Brandin Cooks on injured reserve. He took full advantage of his opportunity, putting up 87 receiving yards and a touchdown in the game. This week, he faces the Lions’ defense, which has allowed the most receiving yards per game to wide receivers this season.

• Unlock your edge with a PFF+ subscription: Get full access to all our in-season fantasy tools, including weekly rankings, WR/CB matchup charts, weekly projections, the Start-Sit Optimizer and more. Sign up now!

Estimated Reading Time: 11 minutes

Are you struggling to set your Week 6 fantasy football lineups?

Below, you can find my top fire (boom) and ice (bust) players at each position for Week 6. I also include my sleeper of the week at each position, in case you are in a deeper league or need a replacement for an ice player.

Don’t miss my “Fire & Ice” chart at the bottom of this page. There, I have listed out my fire, good, sleeper and ice plays for Week 6 of the 2024 fantasy football season.

Quarterbacks

Fire QB Start of the Week: Dak Prescott (vs. DET)

Prescott has scored at least two touchdowns in each of the past three weeks and is averaging more than 300 passing yards per game since Week 2. Vegas is expecting this to be the highest-scoring game of the week, with an implied total of 52.5 points. In Week 4 before their bye, the Lions let Geno Smith throw for a career-high 395 yards.

I expect CeeDee Lamb, Jalen Tolbert and Jake Ferguson to all eat in this matchup, making Prescott a top-five play in Week 6.

Sleeper QB of the Week: Daniel Jones (vs. CIN)

Dare I say that Daniel Jones is looking … good? After a disastrous Week 1 with zero touchdowns and two interceptions against the Vikings, which we know now is a very good defense, Jones has six passing touchdowns and only one interception over the past four weeks. He has finished as a top-12 fantasy quarterback in three of the past four weeks, scoring at least 18 fantasy points in each of those games.

Despite not having Malik Nabers last week, Jones still put up a season-high 22.1 fantasy points against the Seahawks. He gets another juicy matchup in Week 6 against the Bengals, who have allowed the third-most passing touchdowns and the fifth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season.

Ice QB Start of the Week: Josh Allen (at NYJ)

Josh Allen has averaged just 10.6 fantasy points per game in his three road games this season, scoring fewer than 15 points in each of those weeks. The Jets have not allowed a quarterback to record double-digit fantasy points against them at home since Week 6 of the 2023 season … a full year ago. Home or away, the Jets have not allowed a quarterback to score 12-plus fantasy points against them in a game this season.

Allen’s worst fantasy performance of his 2023 season came in Week 1 at the Jets, when he scored just 9.0 points. At the end of the day, it is still Josh Allen and he can be Superman in any given week, so I understand if you can’t stomach benching him. Just lower your expectations this week if you have him in your starting lineup.

Running Backs

Fire RB Start of the Week: D’Andre Swift (vs. JAX)

Over the past two weeks, Swift has finished as the RB3 and RB2 with 29.5 and 20 fantasy points. After averaging just 38 scrimmage yards per game and scoring zero touchdowns over the first three weeks of the season, Swift has put up nearly 300 scrimmage yards and has scored twice over his past two games. There is no reason that his production should slow down against a very soft defense in Week 6.

The Jaguars have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to the running back position in 2024. If Trey Sermon put up 18.7 fantasy points against the Jaguars last week, then Swift can score 20 points with ease in this matchup.

Sleeper RB of the Week: Tyrone Tracy Jr. (vs. CIN)

Giants starting running back Devin Singletary is “trending in the right direction” to play in Week 6, but I still think you can plug Tracy into your fantasy lineups this week. The rookie looked electric in his first NFL start, putting up 129 rushing yards on 18 carries in Week 5. Tracy has now averaged 5.3 yards per carry on 30 rushing attempts this season, while Singletary has averaged only 3.9 yards on 56 attempts. Tracy offers more big-play ability than Singletary and should still see plenty of playing time in Week 6 with Singletary coming off a groin injury.

The Bengals have allowed a running back to score at least 13 fantasy points in each week this season while letting both Chuba Hubbard and Rhamondre Stevenson put up more than 21 fantasy points against them.

Ice RB Start of the Week: Rico Dowdle (vs. DET)

Dowdle has put together back-to-back good fantasy performances, but a big part of that is due to him snagging a receiving touchdown in both games. His actual rushing production has been less than inspiring. He is averaging just 2.5 yards after contact per attempt this season, which ranks fifth worst among running backs with 50-plus carries. He also has zero runs of 15-plus yards and zero rushing touchdowns on the season.

This is a brutal matchup for any running back, let alone for one who is not an efficient rusher and not heavily targeted in the passing game. Since the start of the 2023 season, the Lions have surrendered by far the fewest scrimmage yards per game and fantasy points per game to the running back position among all teams. They have not allowed a single running back to score more than 11 points in a game without a rushing touchdown in that span. Dowdle will need to score his first rushing touchdown of the season to provide any fantasy value this week.

Wide Receivers

Fire WR Start of the Week: Jalen Tolbert (vs. DET)

With Brandin Cooks sidelined, Tolbert notched career highs in playing time and targets in Week 5 — he was on the field for nearly 90% of the Cowboys’ snaps and led the team with 10 targets against the Steelers. Tolbert finished as the week’s WR12 in a tough matchup, with seven receptions for 87 yards and a touchdown. If he gets a similar workload against the Lions’ secondary, his production should be through the roof.

The Lions are allowing the most receptions per game, the most receiving yards per game and the second-most fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position in 2024. There is room for both CeeDee Lamb and Jalen Tolbert to have monster games in this expected high-scoring affair.

Sleeper WR Start of the Week: Tank Dell (at NE)

It hasn’t been a fun start to Tank Dell’s fantasy season, as he has yet to hit 12 fantasy points in any game and has scored fewer than nine points in three of four outings. However, there is hope that things can turn around quickly for Dell this weekend. There will be many more targets, specifically deep targets, to go around with Nico Collins now on injured reserve. In his 2023 rookie season, Dell scored 17-plus fantasy points in any game in which he had five or more targets. There is no reason that Dell shouldn’t see at least five targets with Collins sidelined.

Ice WR Start of the Week: Christian Kirk (at CHI)

Multiple things are working against Kirk’s fantasy outlook this weekend. Not only did he see just four targets last week, but tight end Evan Engram is expected to be back on the field in Week 6 and the Jaguars face the Bears, who are allowing the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position in 2024.

Kirk’s best fantasy performances over the past two seasons have come with Evan Engram on the sidelines. Kirk and Evans each play a significant number of snaps in the slot and hurt each other’s top potential when they are healthy and on the field together.

Tight Ends

Fire TE Start of the Week: Sam LaPorta (at DAL)

This pick is more about going with my gut than having any actual good stats to back it up. Simply put, the Lions need to get their stud tight end more involved in the offense, especially in the red zone. Last season, LaPorta saw the third-most red-zone targets and receptions among tight ends. This season, he has just two targets and one reception in the red zone through four games.

I trust that Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and quarterback Jared Goff will figure out a way to get the ball into the hands of their big play-maker this week in a huge matchup against the Cowboys.

Sleeper TE of the Week: Theo Johnson (vs. CIN)

The fourth-round rookie tight end recorded career highs with five receptions and 48 receiving yards in Week 5. Johnson has consistently been on the field and has run the eighth-most routes among tight ends this season. Johnson is a talented receiving tight end, and if his usage continues to trend up, he could be a sneaky play moving forward.

The Bengals allowed three receiving touchdowns to Ravens tight ends last week, with Isaiah Likely coming down with two and Charlie Kolar scoring the other. Both Kolar (64) and Mark Andrews (55) put up more than 50 receiving yards against the Bengals in Week 5.

Ice TE Start of the Week: Dallas Goedert (vs. CLE)

Goedert is the TE2 in fantasy points per game this season, but that is massively skewed by a 27-point performance in Week 3 against the Saints, a game in which A.J. Brown did not play and DeVonta Smith left early with an injury. Ninety of his 170 receiving yards in Week 3 came after Smith left the game with a concussion. Then in Week 4, playing without both top wideouts, he had a solid game en route to 13.2 points.

However, both Brown and Smith are expected back in Week 6, which puts Goedert back to being a mediocre-at-best fantasy option. In Week 1, with both wide receivers on the field, Goedert recorded just four receptions for 31 yards. Plus, the Browns have done well to limit fantasy tight ends this season, holding both Brock Bowers and Jake Ferguson to fewer than 20 receiving yards and zero touchdowns in their matchups.

Fire & Ice Fantasy Football Plays

Here, I categorize every relevant fantasy player into five different buckets: 1) fire starts (best starts of the week); 2) thumbs up (good starts); 3) risky players with upside (sleepers); 4) ice starts (predicting a bad performance from a good player); 5) stop (must sits).

Note: If a player or defense is not listed, I am not considering starting them in Week 6. I did not include 49ers or Seahawks players, as they played on Thursday night.