Final thoughts and bold predictions as fantasy basketball 2024-25 is set for tipoff

Posted by Admin October 21, 2024 Basketball

On the eve of opening night for the 2024-25 NBA season, l leave you with some predictions and final thoughts before the season tips off…

Predictions

More 3-pointers are coming, and I will likely watch less basketball as a result

Last season, the Boston Celtics were the only team in the league to average more than 40 3-point attempts per game, but it was clearly one of their strengths, as they made nearly 39 percent of those attempts. This season, I’m predicting at least six other teams to join them in that 40-plus attempt club, even if they aren’t nearly as efficient as the Celtics. For the mediocre 3-point shooting teams, I don’t think that strategy will make for a pretty product.

But the 7-foot giants will still rule the paint!

It was great to see “throwback centers” drafted so high in this year’s NBA draft, as both Donovan Clingan and Zach Edey were Top 10 draft picks and are expected to make a solid impact with their new teams. But it doesn’t stop there, as you have up-and-coming bruisers like Alperen Sengun and Jalen Duren ready to take their games to new heights, Ivica Zubac primed for a career year and Andre Drummond likely to play his largest role in several years. With teams starting to value offensive rebounding a little more, I predict at least 20 players will average at least 3.0 offensive rebounds per game this season (last year, there were only 11).

The Pacers, Celtics and Thunder were the only NBA teams to average 120-plus points last season, with the Rockets firmly in the middle of the pack at 114.3. But after the All-Star break, that number rose to 116.3, with Jalen Green, in particular, leveling up offensively. With Houston’s young talent a little more poised and seasoned, and plenty of depth, I’m predicting that the Rockets will take another huge jump, both in the win column and in scoring. Over four preseason games, Houston averaged 120.5 points on nearly 47 percent field goal shooting, with (surprise!) 13.8 offensive rebounds per game (would have led the league last season) and 40.3 3-point attempts (would have ranked second).

Payton Pritchard for Sixth Man of the Year!

Across the 40 NFBKC drafts that I’ve participated in thus far, I’ve drafted Pritchard 20 times. You read that right, he’s on half of my NFBKC teams! What’s not to like? He’s currently the sixth man on the best team in the league, which means he’ll have a chance to start whenever injuries strike while getting plenty of extra garbage time minutes to pad his stats. His confidence is also sky-high as he enters his fifth season, fresh off of winning an NBA championship. Malcolm Brogdon won the John Havlicek Trophy as a member of the Celtics in 2022-23, and Pritchard will be seeking its return to Boston.

Choose your own adventure, and have fun with it!

If you read my column from a week ago about players primed to level up in 2024-25, which included an Altered Beast video game reference, you might correctly assume that I’m a child of the 80s and 90s. And I can’t think of a more popular children’s book series from that era than the Choose Your Own Adventure books. Even though the books themselves were usually a letdown, I absolutely loved the concept behind them.

And that’s how I view all of my fantasy drafts. Instead of having the same strategy every time, and drafting the same players over and over, I try to mix things up and have fun with it. The superstars that you draft early on will dictate how the rest of your draft plays out, and I view each draft as a new adventure to embark upon, with plenty of pitfalls and challenges along the way (such as nearly everyone in the league reading your articles and player rankings, while also studying your picks religiously).

A perfect example of “having fun with it” came last Friday night during my annual auction draft. One of our fantasy managers, Todd Cohen (who has won the league title on more than one occasion), came up with the idea to go after “all the Jalens, Jaylens, Jadens and Jarens.” And with it being an auction draft, he was able to do just that.

I didn’t even realize what Todd was doing until after the draft was over and I started scanning his roster. Sure enough, he was able to draft the following players (listed in order of price paid):

That’s quite the heist! I should mention that this is a standard 12-team league, so it’s not like he pulled it off with only eight teams involved. He essentially won every single Jalen, with the exception of Jalen Duren (who I won for $20) and Jalen Smith ($10). And if he had gone after Jayson Tatum ($39), it would have prevented him from getting so many “Ja’s.”

Todd filled out his roster with a nice quartet of cheap, reliable players too — Tyus Jones ($8), Herbert Jones ($7), Andre Drummond ($6), and Cameron Johnson ($4). So not only did he have lots of fun during the auction draft, but he fielded a very competitive team as well. So a big shoutout to Todd for coming up with this idea and executing it to (near) perfection. I asked for Todd’s thoughts, and here’s what he had to say:

“Anyone who plays fantasy sports knows that it’s supposed to be fun and give you a break from reality. We all know that the best part of fantasy is drafting, and with basketball, there are a lot of players who have negatives that can hurt a team. During my prep, literally going through the top six or seven or eight Jalens, Jarens and Jadens, I saw the high upside, multiple category guys. So I told my kids and some of my friends about my strategy and went for it. It was actually harder than I thought, but I had a ton of fun doing it, so ultimately I accomplished my goals, other than also snagging Duren (which a certain person stole from me)… now I can only hope my ‘J Crew’ can bring home the bacon.”

And, yes, Todd says he read my all-lefty team column from last year, which helped inspire him.

Who else did I win in my auction draft?

I decided to have the center position be a major strength of mine, spending $97 combined on the quartet of Anthony Davis ($48), Sengun ($33), Duren ($20) and Isaiah Hartenstein ($6). Even with Hartenstein injured to start the season, my big-man stats should be covered. Did this decision prevent me from getting strong point guards? Nope, I still got two stud PGs in LaMelo Ball ($30) and Cade Cunningham ($25). Then shortly after winning the LaMelo bidding, I pounced on Brandon Miller ($19), since Miller will feast if Ball happens to miss time again due to injuries.

Under the radar players — I see you!

I’d like to point out some players who I knew very little about a few months ago, but who impressed me with their preseason play:

Jordan Walsh, BOS — Walsh barely left the bench for Boston last season, and when he showed up to Summer League, he looked like he didn’t belong. His stats were downright embarrassing, and I couldn’t believe the Celtics still believed in him. But he had some encouraging moments in preseason, as I saw his energetic defense and athleticism on display, with decent 3-point shooting potential.

Yuki Kawamura, MEM — Congrats to Kawamura for earning a two-way contract with the Grizzlies! After a strong showing in the Olympics, he continued to make an impact in the preseason, dishing out 4.2 assists to just 1.6 turnovers per game over five preseason games while playing just 15 minutes per game. Watching him play alongside Zach Edey brought back memories of Muggsy Bogues and Manute Bol playing together, and Kawamura is simply a passing wizard, making him highly entertaining.

Pelle Larsson, MIA — As a second-round pick from Sweden, I hadn’t paid much attention to Larsson, and I didn’t think he would play meaningful minutes for the Heat. But after watching him play in preseason, I’m starting to think Larsson has a real chance to enter the rotation once someone gets hurt. Besides having an excellent 3-point shooting stroke, the rookie also moves very well off the ball, and he seems to have a great feel for where to be at the right time. I’m intrigued.

Jamal Shead, TOR — Another second-round pick who opened my eyes during preseason, Shead is that rare undersized guard who is a poor outside shooter, yet somehow finds a way to make a positive impact when he’s on the floor. He’s the definition of “tenacious D,” and his stocky build and low center of gravity allow Shead to knock defenders off balance when attacking the basket. He’s one of those players who makes you take notice when he’s on the court.

Kai Jones, LAC — A former 2021 first-round pick, Jones has struggled to figure out his NBA fit, while having some off-the-court issues as well. Whatever you thought of him previously, the Clippers have given him another chance, and he’s making the most of it. Now sporting a shaved head that makes him look like he time-traveled from the 1990s, Jones did an impressive job of controlling the paint in the preseason — 5.0 rebounds, 1.4 steals and 2.4 blocks per game in just 24 minutes per game, with several ferocious dunks along the way. With backup center Mo Bamba still not 100 percent healthy, Jones was rewarded with a two-way contract and will likely start the season as Ivica Zubac’s main backup.

Finding your flow state = Zen Hoops

Over the past 20 years, I’ve easily created over a thousand fantasy basketball spreadsheets. But these days, when it comes to drafting in my higher-stakes leagues, I prefer to keep it simple. All I need to draft is one sheet of paper with roughly 80 player names printed on it (the players who I actually want to draft), and perhaps a couple of handwritten reminders to myself. That’s it. Nothing more, nothing less.

You don’t want to get bogged down during your fantasy drafts. All of your thoughts should be flowing seamlessly, and there should be no second-guessing your decisions. You should be comfortable and at ease, free of distractions. Find a good hype song to play right before your draft starts and have your beverage of choice within reach. If you’ve checked all of those boxes, and you’re confident in your beliefs for the season ahead, hopefully you’ll enter a flow state.

Thanks to my vast NBA fantasy knowledge and experience, combined with my love of the game, I’m able to enter my flow state rather easily during my fantasy hoops drafts. And I’ve always explained to the people who are eager for answers that I’d rather not give easy responses because I’m trying to teach you how to fish. Do you want me to tell you who to draft in every round, or do you want to figure out how to enter that flow state yourself?

With those ideas in mind, I present to you my new fantasy basketball substack, Zen Hoops.

Since the 2024-25 NBA season is about to be underway, I have decided that Zen Hoops is going to be completely free to start this season. That’s right, free! I don’t even know what it’s going to be at this point, but I expect it to be useful and informative, and I plan to have plenty of fun with it. So subscribe today, and come along for the ride with me.

(Top photo of Jalen Brunson, Jaylen Brown: Bob DeChiara / USA TODAY Sports)