It’s Week 14 of the 2024 NFL season, and we’re sure you are fully prepared for the loaded slate. But just in case you need some last-minute intel, our NFL analysts have you covered at the 11th hour.

First, analytics writer Seth Walder breaks down five stat trends that could be pivotal this weekend. Fantasy football writer Eric Moody runs through five players who are rostered in under 50% of ESPN fantasy football leagues as of Saturday and who could be picked up and started in a jam this weekend. That’s followed by NFL analyst Matt Bowen pointing to five potential surprises and NFL analyst Ben Solak picking one team on upset watch. Finally, insider Jeremy Fowler gives the latest buzz, rumors and news you might have missed.

Let’s dive in, starting with a key WR-CB matchup in an NFC West showdown.

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Stat trends | Fantasy sleepers
Potential surprises | Upset watch
Latest buzz

Walder: Five key stat trends that could determine Week 14 winners

Can Garrett Williams slow down Jaxon Smith-Njigba?

Smith-Njigba’s sophomore breakout is in full swing. His yards per route run has jumped from 1.3 last season to 1.9 this season — and he’s all the way up to 3.2 since Week 8. It has helped him to 829 yards on 70 catches. But he has stiff competition in Week 14. Smith-Njigba plays from the slot 77% of the time, which means he should face off against Williams.

The 2023 third-round pick out of Syracuse is having his own impressive second season. He has allowed 0.5 yards per coverage snap and minus-21 EPA as the nearest defender, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Those both rank first among qualifying slot corners. The winner of this matchup should play a key role in determining which team comes out on top.

Can the Giants’ pass rush regain its form against the Saints even without Dexter Lawrence II?

Heading into the season, there was essentially only one part of the Giants’ roster that looked like a true strength: the pass rush. And in September, that looked to be true. Through Week 5, the Giants led the league in sack rate at 12% and were tied for fourth in pass rush win rate at 50%. But since then, they’ve been nowhere near as good, ranking 17th and 28th in those two metrics, respectively.

Little quells pass-rushing ills like the Saints’ offensive line, which ranks 29th in pass block win rate. Of particular concern for the Saints is rookie left tackle Taliese Fuaga, whose 82% pass block win rate ranks 64th out of 66 qualifiers at the position. That should mean a great chance for Kayvon Thibodeaux to record his first sack since returning from his wrist injury in Week 12 — and for the Giants to get their pass rush back on track.

Can Nick Herbig keep up his ferocious pass-rushing pace against the Browns?

Herbig has dominated when he has been on the field this season, which has been more frequent with Alex Highsmith sidelined over the past three weeks. Herbig has a 25% pass rush win rate at edge that would rank third behind Danielle Hunter and Trey Hendrickson if he qualified. His 3.1% sack rate would also rank in the top 10.

Highsmith is expected to be back this week, but Herbig certainly has earned the right to stay in the rotation in this formidable pass-rushing trio led by T.J. Watt.

Does Adam Thielen have a chance against the Eagles’ secondary?

It’s no secret the Panthers are lacking at wide receiver. But amid Bryce Young‘s sudden improvement, Thielen has emerged from a hamstring injury as their most reliable target. He recorded 156 receiving yards over the past two weeks, including 99 in an overtime loss to the Buccaneers.

Thielen will have a tough challenge this Sunday against the Eagles’ secondary. He also plays slot 70% of the time, meaning he should face Cooper DeJean (who covers the slot 82% of the time). The rookie cornerback is allowing 1.0 yards per coverage snap and minus-12 EPA as the nearest defender — both better than average for a slot corner, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Young might have to look elsewhere.

Could the Seahawks or Cardinals still make the playoffs if they lose in Week 14?

In the muddled NFC West, the playoff implications are huge in this contest. Currently, Seattle (7-5) is most likely to reach the playoffs (40%) and win the division (37%), according to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI). But Arizona (6-6) is right on its heels with a 33% chance to win the NFC West.

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Can the Seahawks beat Cardinals for 2nd time in 3 weeks?

Mina Kimes makes her pick in the NFC West showdown between the Seahawks and Cardinals.

That’s because the Cardinals have the sixth-easiest remaining strength of schedule despite being a game back. The Seahawks have the seventh hardest, and the Rams (23% to win the division) have the 10th hardest. (The 49ers are basically out of the conversation with a 7% chance to win the division, per ESPN’s FPI.)

A win gives Seattle a 65% chance at the playoffs, while it has 23% odds with a loss. For the Cardinals, it’s a 54% shot with a win and an 11% chance with a loss. So yes, either team can survive a loss, but the odds wouldn’t be in its favor.

Moody: Five fantasy sleepers you need to pick up — and can start this week

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, WR, Tennessee Titans (41.6% rostered)

With six teams on bye in Week 14, fantasy managers are scrambling for options. Don’t overlook Westbrook-Ikhine, who has scored 12-plus fantasy points in five of his past six games (with three over 16 points). And he has seen six-plus targets in three of those matchups, including a season-high eight last Sunday. The Jaguars‘ defense gives up the third-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers.

Will Dissly, TE, Los Angeles Chargers (34.2% rostered)

Dissly had a disappointing performance in Week 13 against the Falcons, posting zero fantasy points as rookie Ladd McConkey dominated the target share. But Dissly has a great chance to bounce back against the Chiefs. Kansas City’s defense has been a dream matchup for tight ends, allowing the most receptions and receiving yards per game.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR, New Orleans Saints (22.7% rostered)

Valdes-Scantling has a reputation for being boom or bust, but New Orleans needs playmakers with Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed and now Taysom Hill all out. Valdes-Scantling has scored four touchdowns in the past three games, averaging 18.0 fantasy points per game in that stretch. The Giants‘ defense is giving up a 69.2% completion rate on passes of 20-plus air yards, which is where MVS thrives.

Will Levis, QB, Tennessee Titans (21.5% rostered)

Levis has been on a roll, scoring 15 or more fantasy points in four straight games, including one contest with 19 points. He also carried the ball five or more times in three of his past four games.

Now, here’s where this matchup with Jacksonville gets really interesting. No defense gives up more fantasy points to quarterbacks than the Jaguars. They also allow the fourth-most rushing yards to quarterbacks, which bodes well for Levis.

Parker Washington, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars (4.2% rostered)

Washington finished with a season-high 12 targets and 24.3 fantasy points against the Texans in Week 13. Most of that came with quarterback Mac Jones under center and not Trevor Lawrence, who is now on injured reserve with a concussion. Even with a tough matchup against the Titans’ secondary, Washington is likely to see plenty of targets.

Bowen: Don’t be surprised if …

Saquon Barkley rushes for two touchdowns against the Panthers

Barkley has run for at least one touchdown in each of his past three games, with eight carries of 10 or more yards during that stretch. I’d bet on Barkley here against a Panthers defense that has allowed the second-most rushing scores this season (18).

Brock Bowers catches a touchdown against the Buccaneers

Bowers, who leads the NFL with 84 receptions, has logged a touchdown grab in three of his past four games. I think he gets another one here against a Tampa Bay defense that has allowed 21 touchdown passes this season, which is tied for seventh most in the league.

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Field Yates comes out in praise of Brock Bowers

Field Yates, Stephania Bell and Daniel Dopp discuss what has made Raiders tight end Brock Bowers so valuable to fantasy managers.

Elijah Molden intercepts Patrick Mahomes

The Chargers intercepted four passes in their Week 14 win over the Falcons, using late movement and disguise to muddy throwing windows for quarterback Kirk Cousins. And Molden already has three interceptions on the season. Look for him to spin down and steal one from Mahomes, who has thrown 11 picks (tied for third most).

Alvin Kamara rushes for over 100 yards against the Giants

Kamara has topped the 100-yard rushing mark in two of his past four games, so let’s take the matchup here against a Giants defense allowing 145.8 rushing yards per game (29th in the NFL). This should be a volume day for Kamara.

Andrew Van Ginkel sacks Kirk Cousins

In Brian Flores’ defense, Van Ginkel can be schemed as a rusher out of multiple fronts, which creates one-on-one matchups for him at the line of scrimmage. He has already recorded nine sacks and 22 pressures this season, which should make it easy for him to get home off the edge in Cousins’ return to Minnesota.

Solak: Favorite upset pick for Week 14

Los Angeles Chargers (+4) at Kansas City Chiefs

At some point, the Chiefs will actually lose one of these games they’re supposed to lose, right? This is a good week for it. The Chargers played them extremely tough in September and have transformed into a remarkably dangerous offense. Rookie Ladd McConkey has emerged as a top wide receiver in the league, and offensive coordinator Greg Roman has allowed Justin Herbert to take command of the unit.

The Chiefs have huge liabilities at cornerback (outside of Trent McDuffie), at left tackle and in the pass rush. The return of Charles Omenihu should alleviate the last problem, but pass protection feels like the biggest issue in this matchup. Los Angeles’ Khalil Mack and Tuli Tuipulotu have hit their stride as one of the league’s better pass-rush duos. I think those two can get after Mahomes on enough third downs to keep this a low-scoring affair.

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Why Tyler Fulghum is taking the Chargers over the Chiefs in Week 14

Tyler Fulghum breaks down why he is taking the Chargers plus the points over the Chiefs in their Week 14 matchup.

As long as the pass-heavy offense does enough for the Chargers, this should be a statement road divisional win.

Fowler: What I’m hearing as we near kickoff

The Seahawks are eager to take their much-improved defense to Arizona in a matchup for NFC West supremacy, and they have a clear-cut plan. Seattle tweaked the lineup coming out of the bye, prioritizing rookie linebacker Tyrice Knight and safety Coby Bryant over veterans and streamlining overall communication. (Leonard Williams‘ two-game tear helps, too).

Safety Julian Love told me the Seahawks plan to “create different looks” for Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray and try to “mix up his reads.” And while Seattle will keep a close eye on receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., the focus on the scouting report is “85 and 6,” Love said — that’s tight end Trey McBride and running back James Conner, who account for half of the Cardinals’ offensive touches. The game plan has to start with them, due to sheer volume.

The Cardinals, meanwhile, are focused on better red zone production — and the playoffs. “Play Cardinals football” the rest of the way and “we get in,” receiver Michael Wilson told me.

Running back Isaac Guerendo is prepared to carry a heavy workload for San Francisco over the final five games. This could lead to something promising. He’s 220 pounds and runs a 4.33, a rarity for running backs. He’s more comfortable in San Francisco’s offense than he was earlier in the season, and he’s ready for 20-plus carries per week as the feature guy (depending on flow of the game and what Kyle Shanahan wants to do, of course).

While oft-injured Christian McCaffrey doesn’t appear to be going anywhere — he has $8.5 million in guaranteed money next year — Guerendo is a nod to the future, with Jordan Mason facing restricted free agency in 2025.

The aftermath of the Diontae Johnson situation is hazy. People with the team are still trying to process his refusal to go into last week’s game against Philadelphia. A team source called it a “major letdown,” though the source also said the receiver’s demeanor this week before the Ravens broke for the bye was about as good as could be expected.

Johnson’s immediate future in Baltimore looks tenuous at best. This week, the Ravens showed interest in receiver Josh Reynolds, who was claimed by Jacksonville after Denver released him. Clearly, the Ravens are looking for alternatives. Something to keep in mind if Baltimore cuts Johnson: It plays Pittsburgh — Johnson’s old team — in Week 16. Whether the Steelers would want him back is unclear, but the way some people around the league see it: The threat of him sharing Ravens offensive intel with Pittsburgh could make Baltimore hold on to him.

The Chargers have some level of hope for the availability of Ladd McConkey (knee), who is on pace to break Keenan Allen‘s franchise rookie receiving record of 1,046 yards. (McConkey is at 815.) While he could need the next 24 hours to rehab and determine his comfort level for game day, the injury is not considered major.

The Chiefs plan to work veteran D.J. Humphries into the left tackle rotation Sunday against the Chargers. It’s unclear how much he will play over incumbent Wanya Morris or whether he will start, but the expectation is that Humphries will be on the field after having a solid week of practice.