Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Rankings, Tiers & Player Notes (2025)

Posted by author February 11, 2025 Football

Spread the love

The easiest way to kick off 2025 fantasy football rankings is to take a look back at what happened the year before. What worked, what didn’t work – but most importantly, addressing the “WHY” behind the successes and failures and using that as a driving force to make smart draft decisions next season.

That’s how I’ll start the breakdown of the running backs for 2025 fantasy football rankings as we look ahead to the 2025 draft and best ball season. Because with best ball, it’s never too early to start drafting.

2025 Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Rankings, Tiers & Notes

But before we dive into the full rankings with player notes on the top 12 (or so) running backs, I want to dive deeper into two of the best WRs from the 2024 season: Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.

Chase was my WR1 heading into the 2024 draft season, and he exceeded all expectations, finishing as the WR1 overall while taking home the Triple Crown. 127 catches for over 1,700 yards and 17 TDs.

Twenty points per game in half-PPR was four more per game than the next closest WR (Justin Jefferson).

What makes me so thrilled about Chase’s 2024 season isn’t just about the result. It was about the process behind Chase becoming the WR1 overall. I wrote ad nauseum about how red-zone targets are the easiest path for WR to finish as the top scorer at his position.

The past six No. 1 overall WRs finished first in the NFL in red-zone targets, with Chase becoming the sixth to do so in 2024. And Higgins wasn’t too far behind.

Red-zone targets Weeks 1-18:

Ja’Marr Chase

I am always open to being contrarian when it comes to my rankings, just as I was last year by being ahead of the market on Chase.

But I have difficulty finding reasons to get away from Chase as WR1 in 2025. After all, Joe Burrow is still his QB and might be the best pure pocket passer in the NFL. He also supported two WRs to finish in the top 3 in points per game in 2024.

There’s also going to be zero target competition for Chase, considering that Tee Higgins is going to leave in NFL free agency.

In 2024, Chase averaged nearly 10 targets, 91.5 receiving yards. 19.1 expected fantasy points per game and 17.7 fantasy points per game in five games without Higgins (25% target share). Fantasy WR1 numbers.

Chase’s numbers were virtually the same when Higgins played, if not better. Over 10 targets per game, 104 receiving yards, 21 points per game, and 19.4 expected fantasy points per game (27% target share).

But if we are being fair, the numbers without Higgins are very much bloated by Chase’s Week 10 eruption versus Baltimore, where he went 11-264-3 on 17 targets.

Considering that Chase won the Triple Crown with Higgins healthy for 12 games, I don’t love spinning the narrative that losing Higgins is necessarily good for the Bengals in the aggregate.

As I noted back in Week 9 fantasy football forecast, Chase’s efficiency tends to skyrocket with Higgins, even at the cost of a few targets.

Outside of the Week 10 Ravens game, Chase was held under 65 receiving yards without Higgins in the four other games. Dating back to 2023, Chase has hit the under on his 83.5 receiving yards prop in 70% of his games without Higgins (7/10). Of course, his OVERs were 264 yards, 124 yards, and 192 yards. His eruptions can happen at any point against any opponent.

2023 (four games without Higgins): 27% target share, 9.5 targets per game, 102.3 receiving yards per game, 21 fantasy points per game, and 18 expected fantasy points per game.

From 2022 to 2021, Chase played five games without Higgins (either inactive or limited snap share).

In 2022 (three games without Higgins): 32% target share, 13 targets per game. 26.7 expected fantasy points per game, 18.6 points per game, and 99 receiving yards per game.

In 2021 (two games during Chase’s rookie season without Higgins): 6.5 targets per game, 71 yards per game, 26% target share, 15.6 points per game, and 12.4 expected points per game.

If we toss out Chase’s rookie season, we have a strong sample of 12 games of Chase playing without Higgins over the last three seasons.

Coming as not too much of a surprise, it’s more elite numbers: 10.6 targets per game, 97 receiving yards per game, 27.5% target share, 19 points per game, and 20.6 expected points per game. It’s essentially very similar to his splits with Higgins in 2024.

So what’s the main takeaway?

Chase will produce elite numbers in 2025, regardless of whatever happens to Higgins. All that matters is that he and Burrow stay healthy. I probably could have guessed that before even diving into the Higgins on-off splits, but it’s the offseason. We’ve got the time for deep dives.

As for Higgins…

Tee Higgins

The 26-year-old impending free agent has played in only 12 regular-season games in each of the last two years due to injuries. Higgins also basically missed three games in 2022.

Higgins has also never finished higher than WR17 overall (his finish in two of the last three seasons).

In the offseason, he will sign a lucrative deal with another franchise, which raises some questions about his 2025 projection.

There are so many teams that could land Higgins that I don’t want to speculate. The Patriots, Commanders, Chargers, and Titans all have salary cap space and need a big-bodied alpha like Higgins.

We can at least highlight how effective Higgins was in 2024 when he was healthy to get an idea of his potential 2025 output. Third in points per game (15.5) behind only Chase and Jefferson. Just shy of nine targets per game playing alongside Chase while leading the Bengals in total air yards.

I’m sure a lot will be made of Higgins moving up from real-life WR2 to WR1 on a new team and whether he is up to the task. It’s also bound to send his ADP up.

But even though Higgins has missed more time than Chase over the last several seasons, Higgins has a five-game sample size as the WR1 in the Bengals offense.

Week 16 of 2023, Higgins went 5-140-1 on eight targets (22.5 fantasy points).

In 2022, Higgins had four games without Chase, scoring 15.5 fantasy points per game with a 22% target share, 93 receiving yards per game, and 13.8 expected fantasy points per game.

Overall, in the sample five-game size without Ja’Marr Chase, Higgins has averaged 8.8 targets per game, 102 receiving yards per game, 21% target share, 16.9 points per game, and 13.8 expected points per game.

Alpha WR1 numbers, but well above expectation. Unless Higgins lands in the perfect spot, he might be overvalued in 2025 fantasy football.

Going from Burrow to almost any other QB will be a downgrade, and that could make it tougher for him to perform against (what I am guessing) will be unrealistic expectations.

The early best ball ADP and ECR are aggressive on Higgins, whereas I am less bullish. His expected output is much closer to high-end WR2 production – which is what he has been his entire NFL career. Not bad by any means. Higgins has a strong WR2 floor, as he has failed to finish as such just once in the last four seasons.

But don’t let the shiny new toy effect let you forget about his constant injury struggles and downgrade at the QB position.

Even though he will be trading his Bengals uniform for a brand new one in 2025, I am not so sure this tiger is ready to change his fantasy WR2 stripes.