Week 9 was outstanding for an explosive young running back, and an AFC West offense might be emerging as a sneaky fantasy treasure trove. On the flip side, a disappointing NFC East squad might be entirely cooked. Additionally, an AFC West team came crashing back down to Earth. Finally, some usage for a pair of studs generates mixed emotions.
Chase Brown ran wild on the Raiders. He toted the rock 27 times for 120 yards. The second-year pro also secured all five of his targets for 37 yards and a touchdown. It was a monstrous effort.
A look under the hood is also encouraging. None of Cincinnati’s other running backs carried the ball. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Brown ran 26 routes versus three for Trayveon Williams and three for Kendall Milton. Brown was a workhorse in every sense. When he returns, Zack Moss can operate as a change-of-pace option and a pass-blocking choice in long-dow-and-distance situations. Still, Brown is an exciting fantasy starter with a demonstrably high ceiling after Sunday’s effort.
A Greg Roman can’t be fun and fantasy-friendly for anyone but a running back and a mobile quarterback, right? Wrong. According to RotoViz’s pace app, in LA’s first three games after their Week 5 bye, they had a 61% situation-neutral pass rate, tied for the third-highest mark in the NFL. The Chargers attempted 27 passes versus 21 rushes, which excludes two kneels, in Sunday’s 27-10 victory against the Browns. The Chargers were in control all game, making the passing rate more encouraging for the outlooks of Justin Herbert and his best pass-catching weapons.
According to PFF, Ladd McConkey paced the Chargers’ pass-catchers in snaps (48), routes (32) and targets (seven) in Week 9. He parlayed his usage into five receptions for 64 receiving yards. The rookie wideout is a WR3/WR4 with upside for more.
Quentin Johnston was brilliant against the Browns. He had four receptions for 118 yards and one touchdown on five targets. The second-year pro also had one run for two yards. Johnston hadn’t played since Week 6 because of an ankle injury. It was a triumphant return. Most encouragingly, he played more snaps (39) and ran more routes (24) than Joshua Palmer (35 and 22). Johnston is an intriguing waiver addition to stash on benches to see if he can build momentum.
J.K. Dobbins is the backfield’s workhorse. He played 42 snaps, ran 22 routes, had two targets and ran 14 times versus 11, two, zero and five for Kimani Vidal. Dobbins had 85 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns, two targets, two receptions and 20 receiving yards. His receiving yardage was boosted by yards gained on a lateral play before the half. Still, Dobbins’s usage is mouthwatering.
The Cowboys are an unserious franchise, and the bottom might have fallen out in Week 9. They’ve lost three straight games, scoring nine points against the Lions before their bye and 24 and 21 against the 49ers and Falcons since their bye.
Adding injury to insult, Dak Prescott left the game against Atlanta early with a hamstring injury, and CeeDee Lamb has a right AC joint injury. The offense can’t afford to be without either player and if they’re without both, they could look like last year’s Panthers. They would be equally talent-devoid.
Rico Dowdle could be a useful flex or bye-week fill-in at RB2 if Prescott and Lamb aren’t forced to miss time. He handled 12 of Dallas’s backfield’s 15 rush attempts, scampering for 75 yards. Dowdle also ran 36 routes and had six targets, five receptions, 32 receiving yards and one touchdown versus 14 routes and two targets for Dalvin Cook and Hunter Luepke.
Thus far this season, Jake Ferguson is a low-end TE1. He would slip into a bench stash or a cut candidate if Prescott is out. It’s more unclear what would happen to Ferguson’s value if Lamb’s AC joint issue kept him out. Presumably, Ferguson would see more volume.
However, the volume wouldn’t be a given, especially if the Cowboys couldn’t move the ball without Lamb. Put another way, if Dallas couldn’t move the sticks because the offense was stuck in the mud without Lamb, a dip in play volume could offset an uptick in target share for Ferguson. And, of course, Dallas’s touchdown potential would be reduced without Lamb. As a result, Ferguson would only be a fringe TE1 without Lamb.
The Ravens beat the brakes off the Broncos in Week 9. Denver scored only 10 points, and their touchdown was on a two-yard pass from Courtland Sutton to Bo Nix. The rookie quarterback didn’t have an encouraging real-life showing, but he had an OK fantasy output, amassing 223 passing yards, 36 rushing yards and a touchdown reception. Still, Nix didn’t make the most of a Charmin-soft fantasy matchup. He’s in the low-end QB1-to-streamer bucket.
In addition to Sutton’s touchdown pass, he had 10 targets, seven receptions and 122 receiving yards. He’s had 100 or more receiving yards in back-to-back games and had four receptions, 53 receiving yards and a touchdown in Week 6, giving him three fantasy-friendly games around his doughnut in Week 7. Sutton is a boom-or-bust WR3/WR4 who could climb into low-end WR2 territory if Nix is more consistent in the second half of the season.
Unfortunately, it’s ugly beyond Nix and Sutton. Javonte Williams had 12 rushes for 42 yards and two receptions for 42 yards. In Denver’s previous four games, Williams had under 45 rushing yards and 3.8 yards per carry or fewer three times. Audric Estime and Jaleel McLaughlin also tallied 10 rushes for 45 yards. Furthermore, Williams ran 21 routes versus 15 for McLaughlin and two for Estime. Williams’s lack of efficiency leaves him dependent on a hefty workload for fantasy value. Williams should be glued to benches for most fantasy teams in 12-team leagues or smaller, and he could be on the chopping block if Estime or McLaughlin’s roles even slightly grow.
Sean McVay trusts his studs and rides them until the wheels fall off. There wasn’t a better example than on Sunday. Kyren Williams played 76 of LA’s 77 offensive snaps, handled 22 of the backfield’s 23 rush attempts and ran 35 routes versus zero for Blake Corum.
Cooper Kupp was also on the field for 71 snaps, ran 40 routes and was force-fed 14 targets on Matthew Stafford‘s 44 pass attempts. It was just Kupp’s second game back from an ankle injury. Kupp was involved early, but they needed him even more after Puka Nacua was ejected for throwing a punch at the end of the first half.
The usage for Williams and Kupp is exciting as long as their bodies can withstand the punishment. I don’t have a crystal ball or access to their medical histories. Still, each has missed time with injuries in recent years, so McVay could be playing with fire if he doesn’t scale back their workloads slightly. Obviously, gamers should reap the rewards for now, but Corum is a must-roster handcuff. Gamers with Williams and bench assets should consider trading for Corum as insurance. Finally, managers with Williams should scoop up Corum if he’s available.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
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