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Week 2 is in the books, and we have been provided with another four quarters of information about individual players, teams, offensive schemes, and more. The glitz and glamor of Week 1 and a freshly minted NFL season has worn off, but there’s no room to get complacent for fantasy managers who are looking to make a championship run.
Learning from the events of each week of the NFL season and applying these takeaways to our perception of players and teams is crucial. The savviest fantasy managers take what they’ve learned and use it to make advantageous moves on the waiver wire and trading block.
Without further ado, here are some of the biggest fantasy football takeaways from Week 2 of the NFL season.
Zack Moss is in the Process of Icing Chase Brown
Many expected that the Bengals’ backfield would resemble something of a 50/50 split this season with Chase Brown and Zack Moss sharing the workload. This held true (to some degree) in Week 1, but the backfield split was pretty nasty in Week 2.
Zack Moss’s Week 2 role:
80 percent of total snaps
76 percent of running back opportunities (carries plus targets)
67 percent of the team goal line carries (100 percent of RB goal line carries)
89 percent of 3rd down snaps
63 percent route participation
This is the role of a modern-day bell cow running back. This will likely swing back closer to a true committee, but Moss has the clear edge at this point of the season. If he’s able to maintain something in the range of a 65/35 or even a 70/30 split with Brown, Moss will become a very strong fantasy option once Cincinnati’s offense finds its footing.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is Finally Breaking Out
After a year of disappointment under Shane Waldron, Jaxon Smith-Njigba is finally taking the leap in his sophomore season under Ryan Grubb. Smith-Njigba broke free from his slot-heavy, low-aDOT role that plagued him in his rookie season. As a matter of fact, Smith-Njigba led the team in both target share and air yards share in Week 2, something he never did in his rookie season.
The role for JSN is brand new and one that is far more conducive to scoring fantasy points. Here’s his 2023 utilization versus 2024:
Route Participation: 71 percent (2023) vs. 79 percent (2024)
Target Share: 16 percent vs. 26 percent
aDOT: 6.4 yards vs. 9.8 yards
Air Yards Share: 14 percent vs. 34 percent
12 Personnel Route Participation: 9 percent vs. 75 percent
Targets per Route Run: 0.21 vs. 0.31
Playing over Tyler Lockett in 12 personnel is massive for his overall opportunity. This could just be a symptom of Lockett’s return from injury, so we’ll have to see if it sticks.
Smith-Njigba’s role in the new offense is night and day different from what we saw last year. He is being used as a key member of the offense and on all levels of the field, not just in the shallow third. Performances like we saw in Week 2 may start to become closer to the norm for JSN.
Jerome Ford’s Role Isn’t Quite Secure
After Week 1, it appeared that Jerome Ford would be an incredible early-season asset while filling in for Nick Chubb. He was on the field for 75 percent of snaps, had a 66-percent route participation, handled 79 percent of the running back opportunities, and was the goal line back.
The script completely flipped in Week 2. Before Pierre Strong left the game with an injury, the Browns looked like they planned to use a three-headed monster with Strong, Ford, and veteran D’Onta Foreman. Ultimately, Ford played just 44 percent of snaps (38 percent for Foreman), saw nine opportunities (carries plus targets) to Foreman’s 15, and was displaced by Foreman in his goal line role.
This is an absolute nightmare for Ford’s fantasy value. In an offense that is likely going to be mediocre on a good day, this sort of role just isn’t going to cut it. This situation is one that needs to be closely monitored in Week 3.
Please Buy Low on Chris Olave
Chris Olave’s failure to ascend into the WR1 tier has never been about a lack of talent. Olave is a strong route runner, separator, and all-around receiver. The issue has always stemmed from the lack of an offense that can sustain high-level fantasy production.
Well, Klint Kubiak has strolled into New Orleans and turned things all the way around. He is doing things that we have never really seen from an NFL offense and is succeeding in the process.
Here’s a mixed bag of rankings surrounding the Saints offense:
1st in yards per play
1st in points per game
1st in EPA per play
2nd in EPA per dropback
2nd in EPA per rush
1st in play action rate
3rd in motion rate (at the snap)
32nd in usage of formations with 3+ WRs
Kubiak is getting creative and getting the most out of the talent on his roster and it’s just a delight to see.
In terms of Olave, scooping him up in an offense of this caliber before he loads up the box score seems pretty obvious. After a dud in Week 1, Olave bounced back with a 38-percent target share and a 57-percent air yards share in Week 2. Olave is the clear alpha receiver of this offense based on both talent and usage. His day will come; get him on your team while the price is cheap.
Trey McBride Could be the TE1
In a year where the “elite TEs” continue to put up frightening numbers, not only in the box score but in the peripheral metrics as well, Trey McBride has been incredibly steady on both fronts.
McBride is averaging 10.4 PPR per game while posting in the range of a 30-percent target share in both contests. He currently leads all tight ends in target share and ranks 4th in targets per route run. McBride remains a high-level target earner even while sharing the field with Marvin Harrison Jr.
Arizona features an ascending offense with several young, talented players at its core. It’s clear that McBride will be a cornerstone of this unit and should continue to reap the rewards as the offense grows. McBride (and potentially Brock Bowers) will look to give Sam LaPorta and Travis Kelce a run for their money this year.
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