Fantasy Football Week 18 Start Sit Decisions: One last ride for Joe Flacco

Posted by Admin January 3, 2025 Football

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Quarterback

Start: Michael Penix, Falcons

We’re doing it again with Penix. The Falcons’ team total sits at 28 points. They get a Carolina defense that ranks 31st in EPA per dropback allowed and has given up the third-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Atlanta dialed up an extremely conservative approach in Penix’s first start, logging a -11% pass rate over expected with an aDOT of 5.7 for the rookie. Both numbers shot up last week. Atlanta logged a much more palatable -2% PROE and Penix’s average target depth was an aggressive 12.7.

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Start: Joe Flacco, Colts

Anthony Richardson is out again, giving Flacco what is likely his final start with the Colts. Expect him to sling like he always does. Flacco ranks 10th in deep throw rate (13.5) and 13th in intermediate throw rate (22.6 percent) this year. The Jags are terrible at defending these throws. They rank 31st in YPA (12) and 27th in explosive play rate (37.8 percent) allowed on throws 10+ yards downfield.

Sit: Caleb Williams, Bears

The Bears have a 15.5-point implied team total this week. There are at least 10 teams starting a backup quarterback with a higher implied team total. The Packers rank fourth in EPA per dropback allowed and have given up the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing passers.

Sit: Geno Smith, Seahawks

The Seahawks have mostly given up on their fun, pass-heavy approach. Since Week 11, their pass rate over expected sits at a perfect zero. It was at +4% through 10 weeks. Geno’s numbers, in turn, have plummeted.

The decrease in volume hasn’t resulted in better efficiency either. Smith’s YPA and touchdown rate have both fallen over the past month and change.

Running Back

Start: Michael Carter, Cardinals

The Cardinals will be without James Conner, Trey Benson, and Emari DeMercado this week, all of whom are on IR. That leaves just Carter and DeeJay Dallas to man the backfield. Head coach Jonathan Gannon has already mentioned him getting a lot of carries this week.

Vegas has Arizona as four-point favorites at home against a 49ers team led by a backup quarterback.

Start: Jaleel McLaughlin, Broncos

Speaking of lead backs getting to beat up on teams missing their starting quarterback, McLaughlin and the Broncos are favored by 14.5 points at home. The Chiefs, having already secured the bye, are resting Patrick Mahomes and presumably many other starters. McLaughlin returned from a quad injury last week to lead the Broncos in carries at 10. Before missing one game because of the injury, he led Denver in attempts with seven in Week 15. Though still in a committee, this is a great spot for McLaughlin to up his touch total.

Sit: Rico Dowdle, Cowboys

In Week 17, The Cowboys showed us what they had left in the tank sans CeeDee Lamb and the answer was an unequivocal “nothing”. They ranked 30th in dropback EPA and 20th in rushing EPA. Dallas had two drives make it into the red zone, one of which Dowdle fumbled away. The Cowboys are six-point dogs to the Commanders this week and fullback Hunter Luepke steals work from Dowdle on passing downs.

Sit: Joe Mixon, Texans

Mixon and the rest of the Houston starters are expected to play this week. The question is for how long? My money is on not more than a quarter. The Texans have the No. 4 seed locked up and can’t move any higher or lower. All Texans can be left on the bench until the playoffs.

Wide Receiver

Start: Drake London, Falcons

London was already the Falcons’ No. 1 receiver before Penix took over, but he has reached new levels of target domination under the rookie. London has seen 35 percent of the targets and 39 percent of the air yards over the past two weeks. He has also accounted for 3-of-5 end zone targets and has a 43 percent first-read target share. It’s Falcons stacks as far as the eye can see in Week 18.

Start: Olamide Zaccheus, Commanders

London is the obvious start. If you want a sicko pay, Zaccheus is your guy. Noah Brown is done for the year and Dyami Brown is banged up, leaving the WR2 role in Washington up for grabs. Zaccheus has seized the opportunity, running a route on 75 percent of the Commanders’ dropbacks over the past two weeks. He has a 25 percent target share with two games over 23 points during that stretch.

Sit: Jerry Jeudy, Browns

Is Bailey Zappe an upgrade over Dorian Thompson-Robinson? It’s possible. DTR ranks 84th in EPA per dropback since 2020, otherwise known as dead last. Zappe is all the way up at…80th. Sportsbooks, however, aren’t buying it as the Browns are currently 20-point underdogs to the Ravens. They are quickly marching toward one of the lowest team totals of the past decade.

The Browns implied total of 12.0 on Saturday (down to 11.75 now in some places) is going to be one of the lowest in the last 10 years pic.twitter.com/LovvFDr7Pb

— Anthony Reinhard (@reinhardNFL) January 2, 2025

Realistically, the bad quarterback who gives your team a better chance of winning is the one who has been practicing with the team as a backup and the eventual starter all year. Zappe only joined the Browns at the end of October. Facing a Ravens defense that has turned things around over the past month, I can’t in good conscience recommend playing a wide receiver on the worst team in football.

Sit: DK Metcalf, Seahawks

Metcalf hasn’t been the same since coming back from his knee injury in Week 11. Over his past seven games, Metcalf has a 20 percent target share and has been targeted on 18 percent of his routes. Those numbers were both three percent higher pre-injury. His yards per route run is down from 1.98 to 1.58. The knee injury and the JSN takeover have Metcalf buried in the WR3 ranks heading into Week 18.

Tight End

Start: Juwan Johnson, Saints

The Saints have been forced to use Johnson as a receiver more over the past month because of the rash of injuries to their actual receivers. He has run a route on 79 percent of the Saints dropbacks since Week 13 and has been in the slot for nearly half of them. Johnson has a 17 percent target share over his past five games and upped that to 29 percent in Week 17.

Start: Payne Durham, Bucs

Durham has run a route on 78 percent of the Bucs’ passing plays over the past two weeks and has a 12 percent target share. He scored his first career touchdown last week. With an implied team total approach 30, Durham is a nice stacking partner with Baker Mayfield.

Sit: Mike Gesicki, Bengals

Gesicki balled out last week with 10 catches for 86 yards. That type of production has not been the norm for him with Tee Higgins active.

He earned a 24 percent target share versus Denver. It was his first game with Higgins on the field and a target share north of 14 percent. Given how stark his splits with and without Higgins are, I’m betting on Week 17 being the outlier.

Sit: Kyle Pitts, Falcons

We’re not buying Pitts’ primetime heroics as indicative of any future success. He caught a game-tying touchdown versus the Commanders and scored 14.4 fantasy points. He only ran 66 percent of the routes and earned a modest 15 percent target share. Pitts is giving you Payne Durham usage on a team that projects to pass less and score fewer points.