As we roll through the calmer side of the 2025 offseason heading into The Combine, Free Agency, and the 2025 NFL Draft, the Fantasy Football Today team took a deep dive into the best performers in the second half of the 2024 season. Will they continue their hot run into the 2025 season? Should we be avoiding or targeting them in our 2025 Fantasy Football drafts? The FFT team dove into the numbers and the projections to help you prepare for your 2025 season.

Adam Aizer, Dave Richard, and Jamey Eisenberg kicked the show off with the best second-half performer of any player in all of Fantasy Football. Yup, that’s right. We’re talking about Bengals breakout running back Chase Brown who has already found himself flying off the board early in our way-too-early mock drafts. Let’s peel back the hood on Brown’s second-half dominance:

Chase Brown

Brown finished as the RB6 in both half and full-point PPR. The biggest difference in Brown’s breakout was his opportunity following the injury to backfield mate Zack Moss and how the Bengals offense took flight once Brown’s touches and snaps increased. The Bengals averaged 5.7 yards per play (13th) and 23.3 offensive points per game (12th) in Weeks 1-8 before the Moss injury. They averaged 6.0 yards per play (6th) and 30.5 offensive points per game (3rd) in Weeks 9-17 with Brown as the lead back.

In Weeks 9-17, once Brown took over the role, he was dominant. If you prorated his numbers from those weeks over the course of a full 17-game season, Brown would’ve totaled an absurd 1,976 total yards, 81 catches, and 12 TDs. Among 46 RBs with 100 or more carries, Chase Brown ranked 8th in conversion rate on 3rd and 4th down (86%). He also was 11th best in % of carries for 0 or negative yards after struggling with that in 2023.

Brown was their 3rd down back from Weeks 9-17 after the Moss injury. He had 9/58/1 on nine targets. On 1st and 2nd down, he had 28/230/2 on 33 targets in eight games which is a pace of 60/489/4 on 70 targets on 1st and 2nd down alone.

From a Fantasy standpoint, Brown’s role in the red zone played a key role in his second-half breakout. He had touchdown runs of 1, 1, 1, 3, 4, and 5 yards in the second half in addition to receiving touchdowns of 1, 4, and 6 yards. 

According to PFR, Brown did an excellent job breaking and forcing missed tackles and it played a factor in fueling his breakout. He ranked 8th in carries per broken tackle whereas Bucky Irving — another second-half breakout for example — ranked 37th. Among 46 RBs with 100 or more carries, Chase Brown ranked 17th in rush EPA, 26th in success rate, 24th in yards before contact per carry, 20th in yards after contact per carry, 22nd in avoid rate, 11th in % of carries for 0 or negative yards, 29th in % of carries for 5 or more yards and 29th in explosive run rate.

The question Fantasy managers will have to ask themselves is if the receiving totals and red zone rates will decrease in 2025. This is dependent on whether or not the Bengals will use draft capital or major free-agent capital at the running back position. Given the issues the Bengals have on defense and the possibility they will lose Tee Higgins in free agency, it’s more likely they use most of their capital on the defensive side of the ball or in finding another weapon for Joe Burrow in the pass game.

Bucky Irving

A favorite of FFT’s Jacob Gibbs, Irving’s second-half breakout fueled more than a few Championship runs for Fantasy managers who had him stashed on their benches in the first half of the season. He averaged 5.8 yards per carry on the season and finished as the RB7 overall in both half and full-point PPR leagues. This is reminiscent of De’Von Achane’s rookie season breakout. Achane took a big step in his sophomore season by getting more involved in the Dolphins pass game. 

Irving was a dominant Fantasy back from Weeks 10-18 if you filter out the one game in Week 14 where he played just 16% of snaps due to injury. Irving was on pace for 264 carries, 1,494 rushing yards, and 11 touchdowns with 51 receptions and 463 receiving yards (if you prorate his Weeks 10-18 numbers over a full season). He scored 16.3 or more PPR fantasy points in seven of eight games including the postseason. You could argue that he didn’t really get the feature role until Week 16 when he had 72 carries compared to 10 for Rachaad White in the last four games of the season.

Dave is most excited about Irving carrying over his rookie success into his sophomore season because of the potential for more opportunities. He played over 60% of his snaps in just two games all season. 

Efficiency might be the reason the Buccaneers turn the offense over to Irving as a lead back in 2025. Among 46 RBs with 100 or more carries, Bucky Irving ranked 4th in rush EPA, 9th in success rate, 16th in yards before contact per carry, 1st in yards after contact per carry, 4th in avoid rate, 6th in % of carries for 0 or negative yards, 6th in % of carries for 5 or more yards and 9th in explosive run rate. Iriving delivered elite advanced metrics. He finished inside the top 10 in seven of eight advanced metrics categories for running backs.

Both Irving and Brown will be among the most sought-after running backs in 2025 Fantasy drafts. Brown’s outlook will be impacted by the Bengals’ offseason plan at running back while Irving just needs to take a bigger share of the Buccaneers’ running back pie. Irving, with a new coaching staff, seems likeliest to return value on his 2025 ADP.