With the fantasy playoffs fast approaching, there’s simply no more time to wait for your sleepers to pop or injuries to heal. It’s time to recognize the trends that align with win-now mode and target those who can help you down the stretch. Players who boosted you early in the season or had that huge week you remember back in September need to be reconsidered due to oncoming rookies and other players whose opportunities have grown.
Here’s who I think has their arrow pointed up, as well as those who should have you facing the music, even if they were a Top 5 MVP candidate entering the season — I’m looking at you, C.J. Stroud!
There hasn’t been much good news for the 2-7 Jaguars, who are in last place in the AFC South and now have many injuries at wide receiver, with Christian Kirk out for the year and Gabe Davis dealing with a shoulder injury. However, Engram’s return has been one of the few positives.
Engram led NFL tight ends with 114 catches last year and is averaging six receptions for 54 yards in the four games since his return from a hamstring injury. He’s finished as a Top 12 TE in three of the four weeks since his return, and the Jags should continue to deploy a pass-heavy game script. Trevor Lawrence needs to focus on guys he can trust — his 62 percent completion rate is outside of the Top 25 in the league, and his 10 turnover-worthy throws rank in the Top 5. With his reputation in doubt, I think Lawrence will continue to pepper Engram, so target the Jags TE via trade if you can.
Speaking of tight end trade targets, Otton might be the cheaper way to acquire TE1-level production (as compared to Engram). Injuries to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin have threatened to derail the season in Tampa Bay. However, Baker Mayfield has been much better than most may think, performing as a Top 5 fantasy QB, leading the league in passing touchdowns and ranking among the league leaders in passing yards.
Otton has 10-plus targets and eight or more catches in the past three games since the WR injuries, to go along with four touchdowns in his past four games. Otton has finished as a Top 15 TE in seven of the past eight weeks, and while TE can still be a touchdown-dependent position, Otton also ranks first among tight ends in end zone targets (seven — tied with Isaiah Likely). He’ll be a big part of what Tampa Bay does in the passing game moving forward, and you should definitely explore the cost to acquire him.
The Bills have scored 30-plus points in each of their past three games, so there’s no shortage of fantasy options who deserve a look in Buffalo. While James Cook is still the lead back, Davis surely has his arrow pointing up. We saw what he can do in Week 6 against the Jets on Monday Night Football when he scored 19 fantasy points, and he found the end zone again Sunday against Miami with a 67-yard house call on a simple wheel route. He also profiles as a good goal-line option, which should work in his favor as the weather turns in western New York.
Davis is currently on only 21 percent of Yahoo rosters, but he’s finished as a Top 25 RB in three of the past four weeks. I think he has some value regardless of Cook, and he’d be an immediate weekly start were anything to happen to the Bills’ lead back.
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Stroud was a legitimate MVP candidate this summer and likely one of the first 5 to 6 quarterbacks drafted in your fantasy league. However, he’s been running for his life all season. Stroud has been under pressure 130 times, which is easily the most in the NFL. He also lost one of his best wideouts to a season-ending ACL injury a couple of weeks ago and has only thrown for over 195 yards once in his past four games.
Stroud has completed fewer than half of his passes in two of the past three games, and he hasn’t finished as a Top 12 QB since Week 4 (vs. Jacksonville) while being outside of the Top 20 each of the past 3 weeks. What makes matters worse for managers relying on Stroud is that the run game is becoming the best part of the Houston offense. Joe Mixon has 100-plus rushing yards in all four games since his return from injury in Week 6, with 5 TDs in that timespan. Stroud may get Nico Collins back soon, which should help, but I’d still make Stroud play his way off your bench.
It was all candy and rainbows for Mason in the first six weeks of the season, with his 609 rushing yards in that span ranking second only to Derrick Henry. Mason still has 19 explosive runs of 10-plus yards, which ranks among the Top 3 in the league. However, he’s now dealing with a shoulder injury, hasn’t gone over 60 yards since Week 6, and hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 4 vs. New England.
The bigger issue is that Christian McCaffrey is expected to return soon (maybe Week 10), not to mention rookie Isaac Guerendo is averaging 7.4 yards per carry over the past three weeks, just the latest example of Kyle Shanahan’s “plug and play” run game. If you haven’t cut bait on Mason yet, it’s now time to see what you can get in return for him or work the waiver wire for other options down the stretch.
Wicks has four touchdowns on the season and is still a part of the Packers’ passing game, but his fantasy production has decreased over the past four weeks since he and Christian Watson returned from injuries. Wicks has more than 20 yards only once in the past four games and has fallen to fourth (fifth if you count TE Tucker Kraft) in the pecking order for Green Bay. He’s finished outside the Top 70 wide receivers in four of the past five weeks and only has three weeks inside the Top 30 all season.
Winter weather in the tundra also means more Josh Jacobs, who already ranks in the Top 3 in carries and rushing yards this season. Other ascending WR options like Andrei Iosivas and Jalen Coker deserve consideration ahead of him despite having fewer fantasy points on the year.
(Photo of Cade Otton: Mike Ehrmann / Getty Images)
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