NFL Week 10 best bets: Why you should consider Lions, Eagles and Bills
Lorenzo Reyes is back with his three best bets ahead of Sunday’s games.
Incredibly, we are already more than halfway through the 2024 NFL season. Fantasy football owners are even further into their campaigns, with Week 10 representing the start of the playoff push for many leagues.
It also is the time of year where more and more NFL teams are on bye each week. Four teams will be off in Week 10 – the Cleveland Browns, Green Bay Packers, Las Vegas Raiders and Seattle Seahawks – so fantasy managers will have some difficult start ’em, sit ’em decisions that will involve trusting bye-week streamers and potential waiver wire studs.
Who should you trust at various positions as players like Dak Prescott and Trevor Lawrence deal with injuries that are knocking people out of action? Here are 50 players to start or sit in Week 10 of the 2024 NFL season.
The Jaguars are surrendering more points per game to quarterbacks than any NFL team. That makes them a great streaming matchup for Darnold, who has thrown 13 touchdowns over his last six games. He also has T.J. Hockenson at his disposal once again, so that should give him clearer throwing lanes to target his top weapons.
Stafford has now played three games this season during both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua were at his disposal. He is averaging 298 passing yards and 2.3 touchdowns per game in those contests. The Dolphins allow just the third-fewest fantasy points per game to QBs this year but have allowed an average of 269 yards and 2.5 touchdowns per game over their last two outings. That could be good enough to sneak Stafford into the top 10 quarterbacks this week.
The Rams have surrendered 15 passing touchdowns to quarterbacks, good for the sixth-most in the NFL entering Week 10. Tagovailoa has all of his weapons healthy and figures to ride De’Von Achane and Tyreek Hill to a big day in the passing game.
Only two teams – the Jaguars and the Houston Texans – entered Week 10 allowing more passing touchdowns to quarterbacks this year than the Panthers (18). Jones could take advantage of that by logging multiple scores and at a minimum has the rushing floor (32.8 yards per game over his last four outings) needed to become a nice SuperFlex option or DFS sleeper in the NFL’s 2024 Germany game.
Sitting Daniels is a tough decision, but the Steelers are allowing the second-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks in 2024. Only the Chicago Bears have allowed fewer, and Daniels had just a middling game against them. He didn’t score a touchdown until a miraculous, final-play Hail Mary, so he may have to rely on yardage to carry his point total against the Steelers. That may not be enough to make him a top-10 quarterback play this week, barring a big rushing day.
Nico Collins’ status for Sunday’s game against the Lions is murky. That could spell trouble for Stroud, who is completing just 55.5% of his passes for 188.5 yards and one touchdown per game in four contests without Collins. Even if Collins does play, he may not be at 100% yet, so it’s probably best to have Stroud ride the pine for one more week.
Mayfield performed admirably against the Kansas City Chiefs without any of his top-three receivers, throwing for 200 yards and two touchdowns in Tampa Bay’s overtime loss. Can he do it again facing another tough defense? The Buccaneers are coming off a grueling, short week while the 49ers are returning to action after a bye week. San Francisco also limits tight ends much better than the Chiefs, so if Cade Otton has a middling day, it will be hard for Mayfield to crack the QB1 ranks.
Tracy has been inconsistent recently but has a great matchup against the Panthers in Week 10. Carolina leads the league in rushing yards allowed (159.3) and just gave up 253 yards to the Saints’ running backs last week. In a battle of bad teams, Tracy Jr. may be the only winner.
Much like the rest of Chicago’s offense, Swift struggled against the Cardinals last weekend. He had 82 total yards, his fewest since Week 3. But things could get back on track at home this week. New England’s allowed 181 yards per game and seven touchdowns over the last five weeks to opposing running backs. Swift should capitalize to start a three-game home stand.
The Jaguars have allowed an average of 147 total yards per game to running backs over their last four games. They have also given up six touchdowns to the position. That bodes well for Jones despite his disappointing 82-yard output on 25 touches against the Colts in Week 9.
The Giants’ run defense has dropped off considerably in recent weeks. It is allowing an average of 204 yards per game to opposing running back rooms over the last three games. Hubbard just signed a lucrative, four-year contract extension, so he’s clearly still a part of Carolina’s plans even with second-round rookie Jonathon Brooks set to make his anticipated debut.
If you’re in a pinch, Davis could be a good play this week. The Bills’ second running back had 90 total yards and a touchdown on just six touches last week. Granted, a 63-yard touchdown reception will boost that, but he could be in for a good follow up performance this week against a Colts defense that is allowing 146.5 yards per game to opposing running backs over their last four contests.
Tampa Bay running back Rachaad White’s touchdown on “Monday Night Football” last week was the first score given up by the Chiefs to an opposing running back since late September. Kansas City is yet to give up 100 yards to a running back this season. That gives Williams a low ceiling despite his 84-yard output against the Baltimore Ravens last week.
Pollard had 154 total yards on a 31 touches against the Patriots in Week 9, both season-highs. But Los Angeles’ defense is much, much better than the Patriots’ unit against the run. The Chargers held the Browns’ running backs to 50 total yards on 21 touches last week and should have a similarly strong week against the Titans’ personnel in Week 10.
Philadelphia has fixed its run defense since its Week 5 bye. It has held opposing running back groups to just 83 total yards per game with one touchdown since then. So, while Dowdle had one of his best performances in Week 9 (107 total yards, one touchdown) expect the Cowboys to struggle against a top-five run-stopping defense.
The good news: Bigsby led the Jaguars in carries last week even with Travis Etienne Jr. back in the lineup. The bad news: he had 22 yards on eight carries and figures to have trouble against Brian Flores’ well-coached Vikings defense, which just limited Jonathan Taylor to 59 total yards without Blake Cashman in the lineup. Add in that Mac Jones is starting for the Jaguars and the Vikings should be able to take away Bigsby effectively.
White scored his fourth touchdown of the last three weeks against the Chiefs on “Monday Night Football” but managed just 28 total yards on his other five touches. Tampa Bay leaned more on Bucky Irving (10 touches for 34 yards) in what was a tough out for the running game.
It may be a similar story against a 49ers defense fresh off a bye this week. San Francisco’s held opposing running back groups to just 97 total yards per game in the three games ahead of the bye. They did allow four touchdowns in that span but none were receiving – the way White’s scored three of his four touchdowns this season.
There are a lot of factors working Deebo’s favor entering Week 10. The Buccaneers have given up the sixth-most fantasy points to receivers in 2024, Samuel is coming off a bye and is further removed from his “pneumonia-like illness,” and Brandon Aiyuk is out for the season with a torn ACL. Add in that Christian McCaffrey is returning and Samuel figures to benefit from being open more frequently while also being targeted plenty.
Rookie quarterback Bo Nix is continuing to improve and has developed a clear chemistry with Sutton. The veteran receiver’s 68 targets are more than double those of the team’s second-most targeted receiver (Lil’Jordan Humphrey, 32), so he should have the volume to be a quality starting receiver, even against an excellent Chiefs defense.
Shakir is averaging a rock-solid eight targets over his last three outings. He’s emerging as Josh Allen’s favorite receiver and should see plenty of opportunities with Keon Coleman (wrist) out of action. The Colts are allowing more than 34 fantasy points per game to wide receivers, so this could be a smash spot for Shakir.
Addison has disappointed his fantasy owners this year but is coming off a season-high five receptions against the Colts. He also scored a touchdown and should have more open space with T.J. Hockenson back in action. The Jaguars have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to receivers this season, so Addison could have anothers solid, WR3/FLEX-level outing.
Williams should be fresh as he returns from a two-game suspension and is taking on a Texans defense with a propensity for giving up big passing plays. They have surrendered 14 receiving touchdowns to wide receivers this year – the most in the NFL entering Week 10 – so Williams could find the end-zone in a favorable matchup.
The Broncos have allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers this year. There are also other, more viable options in the Chiefs’ passing offense with tight end Travis Kelce finally breaking out and midseason acquisition DeAndre Hopkins surpassing Worthy on the depth chart. That makes Worthy a high-ceiling, low-floor play, especially after his negative-point outing in a favorable Week 9 matchup against the Buccaneers.
Ridley is coming off of two strong weeks since Hopkins departed for Kansas City, so why should he be benched for Week 10? Will Levis is set to start for the Titans, and he hasn’t had great chemistry with Ridley. Were Mason Rudolph starting, Ridley could be trusted again. But with Levis in action against a Chargers defense allowing the sixth-fewest fantasy points to WRs this year, Ridley seems like a player to avoid.
The best way to describe Harrison Jr.’s rookie season is volatile. The Jets have allowed the fewest points to fantasy receivers this year, so it’s probably best to steer clear of Harrison despite his 100-yard ceiling.
Joe Flacco’s first game in place of Anthony Richardson did not go well, as the Colts managed only 13 points against a tough Vikings defense. Now, they are set to take on a Bills defense that has allowed the fewest fantasy points to receivers this year. That doesn’t bode well for Downs and Pierce, though Flacco can at least take solace knowing that the Bills blitz at the second-lowest rate in the NFL (the Vikings ranked No. 1 and routinely pressured Flacco in Week 9).
The Chargers’ passing offense has improved as Jim Harbaugh’s first season with the team has progressed, but Los Angeles remains a run-heavy offense. They should continue to have a ground-dominant attack against a Tennessee defense that has allowed the second-fewest receiving yards to wideouts this season. That will make Johnson and McConkey lower-end flex plays at best.
Kincaid’s production hasn’t been at the elite level his fantasy owners hoped when spending early selections on him, but he has a juicy matchup in Week 10. Gus Bradley’s defense is always vulnerable in the middle, shallow areas of the field, as Indy has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. They are tied with the Chiefs for most receptions allowed to the position.
With Keon Coleman (wrist) out and Amari Cooper (wrist) also banged-up, Josh Allen will rely heavily on Kincaid and Khalil Shakir to carry the passing offense against the Colts. Kincaid saw 10 targets last week and should have the volume needed to be a top-10 TE in this matchup.
Hockenson was out-snapped by Josh Oliver in his season debut last week but the 27-year-old should see his opportunities increase each week. That should make him a great play against a reeling Jaguars team that has allowed the seventh-most points per game to tight ends. That could be enough to make him a top-10 play at the position, which was the expectation of those patient enough to wait out Hockenson’s absence.
Pitts had another disappointing one-catch outing in Week 9, but his ceiling remains high with Kirk Cousins under center. Drake London (hip) is questionable for Week 10 and could be limited if he suits up. The Saints are allowing the ninth-most yards to tight ends this season and surrendered several splash plays to Panthers rookie Ja’Tavion Sanders last Sunday. Expect Pitts to have a solid showing and avoid a repeat of his zero-point outing from his Week 4 matchup against the Saints.
As long as Hill is healthy and Alvin Kamara’s backups are not, Hill will be a threat to score as a rushing threat near the goal-line. He had six carries for 24 yards and two touchdowns the last time the Saints played the Falcons, but getting even half that production would make him strong enough to start at tight end.
Ertz is facing a tough task against the Steelers, who have allowed the seventh-fewest receiving yards to opposing tight ends this season. He also saw his snap share drop below 50% for the first time in Week 9 as rookie Ben Sinnott takes on a bigger role, so Ertz may not have the volume needed to be a TE1 this week.
Henry has been a solid streaming option this season but he isn’t positioned to be one in Week 10. The Bears have a good pass defense and should be able to get pressure on Drake Maye, who was pressured 29 times against the Titans in Week 9. Henry may be asked to help block more than usual because of New England’s shaky line and even if not, he isn’t guaranteed to get open often against Chicago’s fast defense.
Consider this to be an endorsement of any 49ers kicker who suits up in Week 10. San Francisco is averaging 2.9 field goal attempts per game, good for the third-most in the NFL, and is facing a Buccaneers defense that is allowing 27 points per game, fifth-most in the league. Expect a high-scoring game during which Moody could emerge as a top-five fantasy kicker.
The Colts are allowing 2.3 field goal attempts per game during the 2024 NFL season. That’s tied for the seventh-most in the league. Bass is fresh off a three field-goal outing against the Miami Dolphins during which he nailed two kicks from the 40-yard range and one from 50-plus. He gets to kick in favorable conditions inside Indianapolis’ domed stadium and should be in for another great week against a Colts defense that is allowing the fourth-most yards per game this season (383.6).
The Cowboys are allowing 2.3 field goal attempts per game this season and are on a three-game losing streak during which they are allowing an average of 34.7 points per game. That will give Elliott, who has attempted at least two field goals in three of his last four games, a chance to emerge as a top-10 kicker – provided the Nick Sirianni doesn’t eschew extra point opportunities for 2-point conversion attempts as often as he did against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Austin Seibert (hip) is questionable to kick in Week 10. If he’s out of commission, Gonzalez can be trusted as a big-legged replacement. The Commanders average a league-high 3.2 field goal attempts per game, so Gonzalez would have the volume in a high-powered offense needed to be a quality play.
The Texans have struggled offensively without Nico Collins – excluding an outlier game against the New England Patriots. Houston is averaging just 19.3 points over its last three games, though Fairbairn has made eight field goals over that span. The bigger issue is that he missed two field goals against the New York Jets, including a 27-yard chip shot. Trusting him against the Lions, who are allowing 16.5 points per game over their last four outings, seems less than ideal.
The Chiefs finally had a breakout game on offense, scoring 30 points against the Buccaneers on “Monday Night Football” in Week 9. Despite that, Butker attempted just one field goal in the contest. He is now averaging just one field goal attempt per game over his last three contests and it doesn’t figure to get much better against the Broncos. Denver surrendered 41 points to the Baltimore Ravens in Week 9 but still have a top-three scoring defense (17.9 points per game, third best in the NFL) and allow just 1.7 field goal attempts per game.
Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers fought valiantly against the Chiefs on “Monday Night Football” but lost the game in overtime. It will be hard for them to bounce back against a good, well-rested 49ers defense that is coming off a bye. Add in the receiver injuries with which the Buccaneers are dealing, and the fact that the 49ers allow just 1.6 field goal attempts per game, and this could be a low-volume outing for McLaughlin.
Fading a rookie quarterback on the road is a solid strategy. Fading a bad Patriots team is also a solid strategy. That means that starting the Bears in Week 10 is a solid strategy. New England’s offense isn’t keeping any defenses up at night and their lack of pass-catching options has a lot to do with that. Due to that reality, Drake Maye has made a living off his rushing ability, something the Bears are capable of slowing down. They are allowing just 18 rushing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks despite matchups against Jayden Daniels and Kyler Murray.
Dak Prescott isn’t running out of that tunnel for the Cowboys, meaning it’ll be Cooper Rush under center in Dallas. While the Eagles have been an average fantasy defense, there is reason for optimism beyond Rush starting. Philadelphia’s defense has stepped up coming out of their Week 5 bye week, allowing less than 20 points in all four games. Add in that CeeDee Lamb is dealing with a shoulder injury and the Eagles should have no issues taking care of business against their division rival.
Sometimes you just have to take the layup. The Chargers own arguably Week 10’s top defense in fantasy and there’s no reason to overthink it. Jim Harbaugh has transformed his team quickly, successfully establishing a new identity in just one offseason.
Los Angeles is holding teams to a league-low 12.6 points per game and the Titans are averaging just 17.5 points per game, sixth worst in the league. That’s a big advantage for Harbaugh’s group and also for your fantasy team.
International games can be wonky, especially when they feature two of the NFL’s worst teams. The Germans are set to be treated to this doozy of a game that could help decide which team earns the draft’s top selection in April. While it’s unlikely that Americans are setting their alarms for this one, the Giants are a frisky defense that could be successful against these Panthers. With the Giants’ ability to get after the quarterback (a league-best 3.9 sacks per game), New York is firmly in streaming territory across the pond.
Despite the Texans’ success as a fantasy defense, any matchup against the Lions represents an automatic fade. The league’s highest scoring offense is putting up 32.3 points per game and is showing no signs of slowing down. If there’s one thing we know about Dan Campbell, he won’t be taking his foot off the gas.
Detroit possesses too many weapons and too much creativity to make it worth putting yourself through three hours of agony for the sake of a fantasy defense. Campbell’s team won’t rest until they are the only team with kneecaps remaining in the NFL. Save yourself the trouble and look elsewhere.
It’s hard to keep the Steelers’ defense on the bench, but the matchup makes a solid case. The Commanders, like the Lions, possess a dynamic offense that’s posting the third-most points per game (29.2). Dual-threat and rookie of the year frontrunner Jayden Daniels has taken the league by storm in what was supposed to be a rebuilding year. He looks like the real deal as Washington keeps on winning. There’s always a possibility of T.J. Watt completely wrecking the game, but we’d steer clear of Pittsburgh if possible.
The Broncos are another top fantasy defense worthy of earning a spot on the bench this week, especially in a brutal divisional matchup. While they were riding high going into Week 9, Denver was overmatched against the Ravens. They allowed 41 points and didn’t reward fantasy managers who showed trust in them. Even against a potentially hampered Patrick Mahomes, there is really no reason to have faith that this week will be any different.
The Cowboys are far from the fantasy defense they once were and have instead rated as one of the worst in 2024. If you’re still rostering them, or starting them, get them out of the lineup against the Eagles. Dallas should remain on the waiver wire until they show a reason to trust them.
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