It’s easy to be fooled by a small sample of per-route target data, as, I suppose, it’s easy to be fooled by any small sample size.

For years I’ve used targets per route run as a good, reliable way to pinpoint which pass catchers are commanding targets at a high rate. This can help identify highly productive wideouts and tight ends before they go mainstream. In this way, targets per route run (TPRR) is a hipster metric. I was into this receiver way before you even heard of him. Things of that nature.

One glaring example of how TPRR can trick us: Amari Cooper in Week 14 against the Rams was — out of absolutely nowhere — targeted on 54 percent of his pass routes. He ended up with six grabs for 95 scoreless yards. It seemed like a turning point in a forgettable season for Cooper. Maybe, just maybe, he had established himself as Josh Allen’s WR1. But no: Cooper saw just five targets over the next three games. He was all but invisible down the stretch and into the postseason.

A big enough sample — a season, perhaps, or at least half a season — can offer some insight into a player’s target commanding ability and a glimpse into how their team views them in the pass-catching pecking order. Below are six receivers with what I consider intriguing 2024 TPRR profiles. Any of these wideouts could pop in 2025.

Josh Downs (IND)

• 30 percent targets per route run (4th highest among WRs)
• Against zone: 32 percent (2nd)
• Against man coverage: 25 percent (32nd)

Downs made quick work out of usurping Michael Pittman as the Colts’ No. 1 wideout in 2024. It was clear in the season’s first couple weeks that Downs’ ability to get open and make hay after the catch made him a more potent weapon than the catch-and-fall Pittman, who ranked 33rd out of 125 qualifying wide receivers in TPRR last season — not exactly a shameful rate.

Downs, as seen above, did much of his target-commanding against zone coverages. It makes sense: The lightning quick Downs was able to find the underneath soft spot against zone looks time and again, becoming an irresistible target for Joe Flacco and Anthony Richardson alike. Only Puka Nacua — whose ‘24 per-route target numbers were otherworldly — bested Downs in TPRR against zone looks.

Downs’ 2.4 yards per route run against man coverages in 2024 was pedestrian, in line with the efficiency of guys like Tank Dell and Zay Flowers. Obviously Downs profiles as an every-week starter in 12-team fantasy formats, but it’s worth noting that he shreds against defenses deploying zone-heavy coverages. Keep that note in the part of your brain dedicated to fantasy football.

Khalil Shakir (BUF)

• 24.9 percent target per route run (12th among WRs)
• Against zone coverage: 31 percent TPRR (3rd)
• Against man coverage: 20 percent (57th)

Shakir, who this week signed a four-year contract extension with Buffalo, was a zone coverage dominator in 2024. Like Downs, his target commanding fell off against man coverage, something you might expect for a receiver lacking the physical traits of true alpha wideouts.

He profiled as Josh Allen’s go-to guy against zone. Shakir in 2024 somehow posted a higher yards per route run against zone looks than A.J. Brown, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Terry McLaurin, and Drake London, among others. He had nearly 25 percent of Buffalo’s receiving yards against zone coverage, a solid if unspectacular rate.

The problem for Shakir might be the way defenses typically defend the Bills. Last season, no team faced a higher rate of man coverage (35 percent) than Buffalo. New contract and all, Shakir appears to be a receiver whose prospects will hinge largely on matchup.

Dontayvian Wicks (GB)

• 30 percent targets per route run (4th)
• Against zone coverage: 26 percent (20th)
• Against man coverage: 41 percent (4th)

I know fantasy managers don’t want to hear anything positive about Wicks, who broke our collective heart every time he had a shot to establish himself as Jordan Love’s go-to wideout in an offense without a real No. 1 guy. Through drops and boneheaded plays, Wicks blew it in 2024. Yet he remained a target commander. Curious.

Malik Nabers, Drake London, and the aforementioned Nacua were the only receivers who posted a better TPRR than Wicks last season. His TPRR was elite against man looks and not too shabby against zone coverages. He was not, as you may have guessed, hyper efficient with his opportunities. Against man looks, Wicks ranked 80th out of 125 qualifying wideouts in yards per route run. Christian Watson, meanwhile, ranked fifth overall in yards per route run against man coverages, while Jayden Reed — whose metrics tanked in 2024 — was 94th, alongside Ray-Ray McCloud and Van Jefferson. Romeo Roubs was 43rd.

Wicks, who took issue with Josh Jacobs’ public plea for receiver help in the Green Bay offense, will continue to command looks from Love until morale improves. Wicks, after all, had last season’s fourth best ESPN open score, which measures how a wideout separates from coverage.

Marvin Mims (DEN)

• 28 percent targets per route run (14th among WRs)
• Against zone: 26 percent (17th)
• Against man coverage: 35 percent (10th)

Sean Payton was made aware of Mims’ existence sometime in the middle of the 2024 season, and from that point, Mims was a target commanding machine in the Denver offense.

As if his season-long numbers weren’t strong enough, consider this: From Week 10-18, Puka Nacua was the only wideout to see a higher TPRR than Mims. Mims blew away the competition in yards per route run over that stretch.

That Mims was used as a part-time wideout and something of a short-area gadget player is a bit concerning, and his eye-popping efficiency numbers have to be viewed in the context of a small sample. They likely won’t keep up should Mims be used more as a full time player in 2025 and beyond. Even so, the speedy analytics darling showed for half a season that he can be a focal point of a passing attack. Hopefully Payton agrees.

Jauan Jennings (SF)

• 27 percent TPRR (15th among WRs)
• Against zone coverage: 29 percent (6th)
• Against man coverage: 28 percent (18th)

You might see Jennings’ per-route target numbers and dismiss them as fluky because Brandon Aiyuk and, for a time, Deebo Samuel were absent from the Niners offense in 2024. Don’t be so quick with waving off Jennings’ 2024 performance though. Aiyuk in 2025 will be coming off a devastating knee injury and Samuel is all but gone from San Francisco after wearing out his welcome in Kyle Shanahan’s Perfect Machine.

I resisted Jennings as a target commander for far too long in 2024. That’s because, just a year earlier, Jennings had seen a target on a miserable 13 percent of his pass routes. In 2022, his TPRR was 17 percent. Nothing suggested he was a guy who would demand looks from Brock Purdy. But he did, especially against zone.

Jennings ranked 24th out of 116 qualifying receivers in ESPN’s open score. It made him a far more appealing target than Deebo, whose open score was 102nd out of 116 receivers. A big-bodied red zone dominator, Jennings will probably be underdrafted in 2025.

Diontae Johnson (CAR, BAL, HOU)

• 27 percent targets per route run (15th among WRs)
• Against zone: 22 percent (44th)
• Against man coverage: 39 percent (4th)

If Johnson can ever figure out a way not to be kicked off an NFL team, he might have a real chance to be a target hog in the right offense.

Johnson has always been strong against man coverage looks, and that didn’t change last season, especially during his brief run with Andy Dalton under center for Carolina. The mercurial Johnson drew a target on 30 percent of his pass routes from Week 3-6 in the Panthers offense.

Even his inglorious stint with the Ravens had something of a silver lining: Johnson saw a target on 26 percent of his (very) limited routes as a Raven. In Pittsburgh in 2023, Johnson saw a target on a solid 26 percent of his routes. His ability to make targets come his way could be noteworthy if Johnson is able to one day stop alienating coaches and teammates.