Greetings, friends. In this space, I’ll share my rapid reactions via the notes I took all day while watching every NFL game. I will focus on Week 12 news, notes and waiver wire targets in an attempt to keep the content digestible. Here are my key takeaways from a wild Week 11 Sunday. Let’s dive in.

Fantasy Football Notes & Takeaways

We Have A DeVonta Smith Problem

DeVonta Smith caught four of his six targets for 29 yards in Thursday’s win over the Commanders. It’s the second straight game with less than 30 yards receiving and the third time in his last five games he’s finished under that mark. In Week 9 against the Jaguars, Smith caught four of his six targets for 87 yards and a touchdown, but fellow A.J. Brown left that game early with an injury. With the Eagles leaning more on their running game in recent weeks, Smith hasn’t seen the same kind of target share we’ve come to expect from him.

So, what do fantasy managers do here? Is he a buy-low at the trade deadline? Will he be DROPPED in some leagues? I think we’re destined to see inconsistent production from Smith for the rest of the season, but I also think he has value if you can buy very low on him. He’s still the WR2 on one of the better offenses in the NFL, and it’s an offense that is going to need to figure out it’s passing attack if Philly is going to be a serious contender. Nick Sirianni is also a players coach who knows he needs to feed his star WR to keep him happy. I think the Eagles start to incorporate Smith into their attack more frequently in the coming weeks, likely as soon as Week 12 after their mini-bye.

I wouldn’t pay what I would personally consider fair value for Smith at the trade deadline, but I will gladly take him off the hands of a frustrated manager who is looking to move off him.

The Jameis Winston Experience Is So Back

If you follow me on Twitter/X (@mikeMaher if you want to join the party), you’ve seen me talking about Betting Systems this week. One of the betting systems I’ve been following had Jameis Winston as all but a lock to complete more than 22.5 passes. I didn’t really know how I felt about trusting Winston, so I chickened out and didn’t bet it. Well, Winston threw 46 (!) passes in Sunday’s loss to the Saints, completing 30 of them. He threw for 395 yards and two touchdowns, feeding the likes of Jerry Jeudy, David Njoku, Elijah Moore, and Cedric Tillman to fantasy relevance. With Winston under center, we have to reconsider everything about the Browns going forward.

One betting system bet I didn’t make. The model said Jameis Winston over 22.5 completions was a lock.

I was too scared to pull the trigger.

The model was correct. pic.twitter.com/fr09YLwD4K

— Mike Maher (@mikeMaher) November 17, 2024

Taysom Hill Breaks the Slate

Taysom Hill did Taysom Hill things in Week 11. If you faced him this week, there’s a very good chance you lost your matchup. Hill caught eight passes for 50 yards and rushed for 138 yards and THREE touchdowns. He also completed a pass for 18 yards for good measure. The do-it-all TE scored more than 36 fantasy points in most formats as the Saints blew out the Browns. With all of the injuries to TE and the general inconsistency of this year’s TE class, Hill is worth starting as long as it looks like he is going to have a role in this offense.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba is Heating Up

JSN now has double-digit targets in two straight games, topping 100 yards receiving in all three of them. Today, he caught 10 of 11 targets for 110 yards. Two weeks ago, before Seattle’s bye week, he finished as THE WR1 for the week. This week, he is looking like he’ll be a WR1. He is currently WR35 in the FantasyPros Rest of Season Rankings, but it feels like that has to change. Is he a locked in WR2 ROS?

Bo Nix Has Arrived. Now What?

There were some questions about Bo Nix‘s game coming out of college, most notably about his propensity to check the ball down instead of pushing it down the field. Sean Payton didn’t care and grabbed him early in the first round anyway. But after a somewhat slow start to the season that saw him through first interceptions against zero touchdowns in his first two starts, Nix is hitting his stride. Nix and the Broncos blew out the Falcons 38 to 6 today, and Nix’s 9.3 Y/A is a new career-high. He is on track for his third QB1 finish in his last four games.

Nix is currently QB14 in Rest of Season Rankings, and he could easily move into QB1 territory this week. He’s playing well right now, but the Broncos haven’t had their bye week yet. They have that bye in Week 14, so fantasy managers acquiring him or adding him off waivers will only be able to start him against the Raiders in Week 12 and Browns in Week 13 before needing a replacement. For that reason, I’d actually try to sell high for a WR or RB if anyone in your league is desperate at QB.

Early Week 12 Waiver Targets

Taysom Hill (TE – NO)

See above. Hill is healthy now, and his ceiling is TE1 for any given week. Can we predict what his role is going to be going forward? No, but he is only rostered in about 50% of leagues, and that is too low given what his role looked like today.

Bo Nix (QB – DEN)

I talk about Nix above as well, most notably that he has a bye week in two weeks. That’s fine, he has two good matchups coming up, so he is a worthwhile streamer. I’m also very willing to sell high on Nix if you already have him or add him ahead of your league’s bye week. You probably can’t get too much for him, but you never know.

Jameis Winston (QB – CLE)

Winston threw the ball a whopping 46 times for the second week in a row. But he didn’t throw any interceptions this week after throwing three last week, which has him as a Top 5 QB pending Monday Night Football. He’s thrown 133 passes over his last three starts, with six touchdowns and three interceptions to go with 964 yards passing. With that kind of volume, Winston is worth adding. The Browns already had their bye in Week 10 but do have a tough matchup against the Steelers in Week 12.

Jerry Jeudy (WR – CLE)

We mentioned Jameis Winston above. If he is really going to drop back 50 times a game, we need to start adding pieces of this Cleveland passing game. Jeudy has eight, 11, and nine targets in Winston’s last three starts and has topped 73 yards receiving in all three games. This week, he caught six of his nine targets for 142 yards and a touchdown. He is rostered in less than 10% of leagues.

Kendrick Bourne (WR – NE)

The Patriots appear to have found their franchise QB in Drake Maye, but he doesn’t have a ton of help at WR right now. Enter Kendrick Bourne. Bourne was active but didn’t play in Week 10 but caught all five of his targets for 70 yards and a touchdown this week. Is this a random spike game or the beginning of a productive stretch? I’m interested in finding out. I’m only starting him in Week 12 against the Dolphins if I’m desperate, but I’m adding him in leagues where I can to see if this really is the beginning of something. The Patriots, unfortunately, have a bye in Week 14.

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