Well friends, we made it. The fantasy football playoffs have finally arrived and for those of you who gutted out a stressful regular season, this is the reward for making all those hard decisions week-to-week to make sure you got yourself a seat at the table to have a say in who ends up being crowned champion! Now more than ever, it’s crucial for fantasy managers to be looking closely at every player that’s put into your starting roster for the most important weeks of the season. Not one to disappoint, I’m here again to walk through a few matchups at each position ahead of Week 15 to help make those decisions!

As always, make use of Andy, Mike, and Jason’s rankings on the website for even more insight before locking in that lineup!

Quarterbacks

Justin Herbert (LAC) vs. Tampa Bay

After a five-week stretch finishing in the top 12, Justin Herbert has hit a cold streak at the wrong part of the season. Over his last two games, Herbert is averaging just 10.9 fantasy points per game and has finished outside of the top 20 RBs each week. One of the biggest differences in Herbert’s production over the last two weeks has been his lack of involvement in the running game. From Weeks 8-12, Herbert averaged 35 yards per game on the ground, adding two TDs over those five games, but has rushed for a total of 13 yards since. What will be important for Herbert to return to fantasy relevance is the increased passing volume that the Chargers saw during his great run of weeks when he averaged nearly 30 passing attempts per game.

Luckily for fantasy managers relying on Herbert this week, the Chargers have one of the absolute best matchups for fantasy QBs on the season in Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers have allowed the fourth-most passing yards on the season and have allowed the most completions of any team in the league. For fantasy, the Buccaneers have been better against QBs over their last three games, only allowing one top-12 finish over that stretch. Prior to that though, Tampa Bay had allowed a top-eight QB finish in five of six games, and each week the QB threw for at least two TDs. Fantasy managers hoping for a higher-end fantasy finish could place a decent bet on Herbert to start their playoff run.

Kurt would play Herbert over: Kyler Murray (ARI) vs. New England

Brock Purdy (SF) vs. L.A. Rams

Despite having an inconsistent supporting cast around him, Brock Purdy has been the most consistent piece of the puzzle in the San Francisco offense this season. Purdy had a bounce-back game last week finishing inside the top-eight QBs for the seventh time this season and for the first time since missing a game in Week 12. One surprising added bonus for Purdy’s fantasy success this season has been his ability to run the ball, where he’s averaging 3.9 fantasy points on the season. With their backs against the wall trying to make the playoffs, the 49ers will be leaning on Purdy and the passing game more than ever to be able to keep the team in the hunt which could only mean a higher ceiling for Purdy throughout the fantasy playoffs.

While starting a QB playing on the Thursday night game in the first round of the playoffs can be nerve-racking, a matchup like Purdy’s against the Rams should calm some of those nerves for fantasy managers. Los Angeles’ defense is coming off an epic game against the Bills where they allowed 42 points in a win. The Rams are one of just three defenses in the league to have allowed 23 passing TDs and 45 plays of 20+ yards (the Jaguars and Ravens are the other two). For fantasy though, the Rams have only allowed two top-12 QB finishes in their last eight games. It may be risky but winning in the fantasy playoffs takes calling your shot sometimes like you may need to do with Purdy.

Kurt would prefer to play: Jared Goff (DET) vs. Buffalo

Running Backs

Isiah Pacheco (KC) at Cleveland

It’s been a long wait for fantasy managers who have held onto Isiah Pacheco, but the time may have finally come to be comfortable getting him back into fantasy lineups. Pacheco missed nine games after fracturing his fibula but saw 46% of snaps in his second game back in action last week. More importantly, Pacheco out-snapped Kareem Hunt who had taken over the bulk of the RB duties in his absence so it should be even more confidence for fantasy managers that the Chiefs’ bell cow RB is back in the lead role going forward.

What better time for Pacheco to deliver again for fantasy managers than in the opening week of the fantasy playoffs? And he’s got a great matchup against the Browns to do so. Cleveland’s defense has allowed the fourth-most rushing TDs and the second-most carries that went for 20+ yards. When it comes to fantasy matchups, the Browns have allowed a top-24 RB finish in five of their last six games and have allowed an RB to hit that mark in a very nice 69% of their games this season. It may feel risky relying on an RB who may still be coming back from injury, but Pacheco should be a solid RB2 this week.

Kurt would play Pacheco over: Jonathan Taylor (IND) at Denver

Braelon Allen (NYJ) at Jacksonville

It’s always tough to hold onto insurance policy RBs, but fantasy managers who rostered Braelon Allen early in the season are finally getting some payoff as we enter the playoffs. With Breece Hall out due to injury in Week 14, Allen saw his highest snap percentage of his career against the Dolphins, playing 54% of snaps on the day. What could be concerning for fantasy managers needing to put Allen in their lineups this week is that he still evenly split opportunities with fellow rookie RB Isaiah Davis, with both players getting 16 opportunities on the day. The pair of RBs even saw the same number of red zone touches (two), though it was Davis who got into the end zone.

Luckily, the Jets have a matchup this week against the Jaguars which should allow for plenty of opportunity for both RBs to have an impact again if Breece Hall isn’t able to suit up. Jacksonville’s defense is one of just five teams in the league that have allowed 15 rushing TDs and 10 carries that went for 20+ yards. For fantasy, the Jaguars have allowed a top-24 RB in each of their last six games and have only not allowed an RB to hit that mark in just three games this season. Fantasy managers should be checking to make sure that Breece is a no-go for the Jets this week, but as long as that’s the case, Allen should be played with confidence to start the fantasy playoffs.

Kurt would play Allen: Najee Harris (PIT) at Philadelphia

Sincere McCormick (LV) vs. Atlanta

To say that the Raiders genuinely needed a boost at RB would make Sincere McCormick’s emergence even better. After spending most of the season on the Las Vegas practice squad, McCormick finally got a chance to show what he’s capable of on Black Friday and has made the most of the opportunity since. In the two games where he’s been featured, McCormick has rushed for more yards in a two-game stretch than any other Raiders RB this season, and in his three total appearances this year, he’s nearly surpassed Zamir White’s total rushing production for the season. While McCormick has been good for Las Vegas on the ground, he’s yet to get into the end zone and isn’t overly involved in the passing game, so his ceiling may be capped.

What isn’t encouraging about McCormick in Week 15 is that he’ll have another matchup against the Falcons. Atlanta’s defense has allowed the third-fewest rushing TDs on the season and is allowing just 17.6 fantasy points to opposing teams’ RBs per game. On the season though, the Falcons have allowed a top-24 RB in 77% of their games, including in seven of their last eight matchups. While McCormick may not be the ceiling play that some fantasy managers need to pull an upset, he should provide a safe floor and could be a decent flex option for managers in need.

Kurt would play McCormick over: Tyrone Tracy Jr. (NYG) vs. Baltimore

Wide Receivers

Khalil Shakir (BUF) at Detroit

Despite all of the additions around him on the Bills’ offense, Khalil Shakir has maintained his role as the most reliable pass-catching option in Buffalo. Ever since the addition of Amari Cooper in Week 7, Shakir is still out-pacing both Cooper and Keon Coleman for targets, averaging about three more targets per game than either of his fellow receivers. During that span, Shakir has finished as a top-30 WR option in all but two games, including two finishes inside the top-10 WRs. Maybe the only thing missing from Shakir having fantasy managers consider him an every-week starter in their lineups is the lack of TD production, with just three on the entire season. Still, Shakir is seeing a 23% target share in one of the best offenses in the league so he should be in consideration nearly every week.

Getting a matchup like the Lions for the first week of the fantasy playoffs should set Shakir up to be a playable fantasy asset this week. The one area in which fantasy managers have been able to get production against the Detroit defense consistently has been the passing game, specifically with WRs. The Lions have allowed the 10th-most passing yards on the season, but have only allowed 11 passing TDs on the year. While the high-end production games may not come against Detroit, a player like Shakir whose production comes from volume in the passing game and making the most of his targets is the type of player that fantasy managers should be targeting against the Lions.

Kurt would play Shakir over: Deebo Samuel (SF) vs. L.A. Rams

Adam Thielen (CAR) vs. Dallas

The old man in Carolina has seemed to put himself back into fantasy-relevant territory at the most important time of the year as Adam Thielen has returned from injury with back-to-back top-20 WR finishes. Thielen’s re-emergence comes alongside much better QB play from Bryce Young, but Thielen has contributed to that, providing a safe veteran target for the young QB. Over the last two weeks, Thielen has seen a combined 21 targets that he’s turned into 201 receiving yards and a TD. The passing volume in Carolina has ticked up over their last several games since Thielen’s return, averaging 38 passing attempts per game so there’s hope that type of receiving volume for Old Man Thielen could continue.

If Thielen is going to be involved in winning fantasy playoff games for fantasy managers, a matchup with the Cowboys is a great way to start. Dallas’ defense is allowing a whopping eight yards per passing attempt this season, the second-highest average in the league. The Cowboys have also allowed the most completions of 40+ yards in the league, so the possibility is there for the big play to come. In their last six games, Dallas has allowed a top-15 WR four times, including the WR1 just last week to Ja’Marr Chase. While WR1 might not be in the books for Thielen, he should absolutely be in lineups as a WR2 with upside.

Kurt would play Thielen over: Malik Nabers (NYG) vs. Baltimore

DK Metcalf (SEA) vs. Green Bay

There has definitely been a shift in the way the passing game has functioned in Seattle over the last month, mainly to the detriment of DK Metcalf. Metcalf started the season on a tear, finishing as a top-24 WR in four of his first seven games, but since returning from a knee injury in Week 11, his highest fantasy finish on a given week has been WR32 with two finishes outside of the top 40. To Metcalf’s credit, he’s still seeing plenty of targets come his way, getting nine passes thrown his direction in three of his last four games, but where Metcalf has always been most valuable has been in the red zone, and he’s only had two targets there during that same stretch. When you also consider the emergence of Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the Seahawks’ offense, it’s worth having a hard think about keeping Metcalf in starting lineups in such an important week.

For Metcalf to get back on track this week, he’ll have a tough matchup against a solid Packers defense. Green Bay’s defense is allowing -3.4 fantasy points above expectation this season and is the only team in the league to have only allowed one pass play to go for over 40 yards. For fantasy, the Packers have been decent against WRs, only allowing three top-24 WR finishes in their last seven games, though they have allowed a top-15 finish in back-to-back weeks. If fantasy managers want to stick to their studs with Metcalf in their lineup, it’s understandable, but it’s also likely there’s a better option out there to start the playoffs with.

Kurt would prefer to play: DJ Moore (CHI) at Minnesota

Tight Ends

Zach Ertz (WASH) at New Orleans

It’s a little hard to believe, but Zach Ertz has been one of the most consistent TEs for fantasy managers this season and currently sits as the TE10 on the season. Ertz has provided a great safety blanket for rookie QB Jayden Daniels, averaging four receptions per game and nearly 40 yards per game—a nice baseline for any fantasy TE. Where Ertz has made his money for fantasy managers this season has been his recent surge of TDs, catching three in his last three games, leading to three straight weeks inside the top-12 TEs. 

If Ertz is going to continue his run of fantasy finishes, he’ll have a tougher matchup against the Saints this week. The TE position is the position the Saints rank the highest at when it comes to fantasy matchups, only allowing 8.8 fantasy points per game to the position. Over their last seven games though, New Orleans has allowed below that average six times. The key for fantasy managers considering playing Ertz this week may be him getting back into the end zone. Over his last four games, Ertz has seen seven red zone targets so the opportunity should continue to be there for pay dirt this week.

Kurt would play Ertz over: Evan Engram (JAX) vs. N.Y. Jets

TJ Hockenson (MIN) vs. Chicago

The road back to being a fantasy-relevant TE option has been a long one for TJ Hockenson, but he may have finally made it back. After missing the first eight games of the season, Hockenson has stepped back into the Vikings pass-heavy offense and finished as a top-six TE twice. The problem is that there are still weeks that Hockenson has disappeared, finishing outside of the top 15 TEs the other four weeks he’s been active. What should be encouraging for fantasy managers considering Hockenson are the six targets per game he’s averaged since returning. Any TE having a 19% target share on a team that throws the ball as much as Minnesota does provides ample opportunity for fantasy production on a weekly basis.

While Hockenson has been inconsistent in his return to the Vikings’ offense, he’s got a solid matchup against the Bears this week that could allow him to contribute to fantasy rosters again. Chicago’s defense has been solid against the pass this season, allowing the fifth-lowest completion percentage on the year. However, opposing TEs have had success against the Bears. Over their last eight games, Chicago has allowed double-digit fantasy points to opposing teams’ TEs six times and has given up 15.9 fantasy points in each of the last three weeks. While Hockenson may feel like a risky play, fantasy managers should be able to get him in their lineup for a TE with upside this week.

Kurt would play Hockenson over: Jonnu Smith (MIA) at Houston