We’re back, baby! Woo-oo! The fantasy football season is here, and that means Week 1 rankings. Of course, sleepers, fun ranks (and more) are back too. I’ve tried to listen to the wants and needs over the years, so a bit of “here’s what to expect” … especially if you’re new.
Ravens at Chiefs, Thursday, 8 p.m.
NOTES: Pick up Samaje Perine before it’s too late (see Week 1 waivers). Both teams ramped up blitzes when facing each other in the pass, affecting Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson as passers, which could lead to more offensive struggles than expected.
Packers at Eagles, Friday, 8 p.m. (neutral site)
NOTES: Check out the article on pre-snap motion effect for why it matters a great deal. The Eagles defense is Top 5 in APA (Adjusted Points Allowed) at QB, WR and TE. They also allowed the second-highest Points Per Drive and third-highest TD% last year.
Steelers at Falcons, Sunday, 1 p.m.
NOTES: The Steelers rate out as a tough matchup for opponents’ No. 1 and 2 wideouts, but they are favorable for the No. 3. Back to Mooney, this could help his cause if Pitts gets No. 2 treatment. Kirk Cousins is third behind Geno Smith and Joe Burrow for lowest OFFTGT% over the past five years (as far as PFF data goes — min. 500+ attempts). Desmond Ridder was mid-pack, and Taylor Heinicke was one of the worst last year.
Cardinals at Bills, Sunday, 1 p.m.
NOTES: The Bills showed heavier 12-set use in the preseason, which included Shakir coming off the field frequently when only two wideouts were used, sometimes for Mack Hollins. Despite Bills wideouts being sleepers, it might be best to wait to see how this develops… where you can.
Titans at Bears, Sunday, 1 p.m.
NOTES: Speaking of Odunze, he sat in the 60-70% range of running routes with the first team offense on dropbacks. As with Jaxon Smith-Njigba last year, the excitement could be a year too early… though, I have more hope for Odunze than I did for JSN last year.
Patriots at Bengals, Sunday, 1 p.m.
NOTES: Zack Moss has produced when healthy (he is currently), and some reports said Chase Brown was struggling a bit in pass protection and efficiency this preseason. The Brown-usurping-Moss talk might be a bit premature.
Texans at Colts, Sunday, 1 p.m.
NOTES: Anthony Richardson ran 10 times in each of his two full games. He totaled 40/1 and 56/1 rushing, respectively, and had two Goal-to-Go attempts and two Goal-Line rushes. Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss totaled 22 and 18 in the other games. The share between Richardson’s attempts and Taylor’s — when close — bears watching.
Jaguars at Dolphins, Sunday, 1 p.m.
NOTES: I’d consider Jonnu Smith a Hail Mary tight end sleeper, as it’s a favorable matchup, despite the Dolphins listing Smith down the depth chart.
Panthers at Saints, Sunday, 1 p.m.
NOTES: The Panthers were the weakest defense against slot receivers — Shaheed worked the slot nearly half the time at 45.5%. Of wideouts who were targeted at 23% or more of their routes, no one had a higher OFFTGT% mark on his targets than Diontae Johnson at 20.7%. Unfortunately, Bryce Young threw 15.2% of his passes off target (fifth-worst).
Vikings at Giants, Sunday, 1 p.m.
NOTES: Justin Jefferson barely changes his effectiveness without Kirk Cousins, and his YPRR actually increases from 2.87 to 2.96. No concern here with Sam Darnold. The Giants are the fourth-most favorable matchup for No. 2 wideouts, and that’s in large part for having corners who should be a step down (Deonte Banks is better as a No. 2, etc.).
Raiders at Chargers, Sunday, 4 p.m.
NOTES: Palmer with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams — 9.9 TmTGT%, 1.22 YPRR, 4.3 TD% and 13.2 TmAirYD% … and without either one of them — 15.9%, 1.67, 5.1% and 21.1%.
Broncos at Seahawks, Sunday, 4 p.m.
NOTES: Last year was the first time since 2017 that Lockett didn’t finish higher at wide receiver than his ADP cost. The Seahawks had the fifth-highest pass percentage last year (61.6%), and some believe Ryan Grubb could push that higher, including using three-wide more (15th on dropbacks last year).
Cowboys at Browns, Sunday, 4 p.m.
NOTES: The Browns ran 46.4% of the time before Joe Flacco and then just 38.1% (sixth-lowest) with him. Additionally, David Njoku had 27.8 TGT%, 2.41 YPPR and 15.2 FPPG with Flacco compared to 21.8%, 1.38 and 5.3 without him — 47.3% of his fantasy points were with Flacco.
Commanders at Buccaneers, Sunday, 4 p.m.
NOTES: The Commanders look to be somewhat improved on defense, but it’s going to take a lot to make an impact, as they were a Top 3 favorable matchup for QB and WR last year and Top 10 for RB. While the Buccaneers pass defense is weak, their run defense should remain somewhat concerning after having the fourth-toughest APA mark.
Rams at Lions, Sunday, 8 p.m.
NOTES: The Lions had the third-lowest 3-and-Out% (27.3) with the Rams fifth-lowest (28.1%), and the Lions games hit the over 11 times — tied for most with the Colts.
Jets at 49ers, Saturday, 8 p.m.
NOTES: The Jets and Ravens are the two most concerning matchups for quarterbacks — several stats, including DVOA. The Jets are also the toughest DVOA for wideouts but the seventh-easiest for running backs and eighth-easiest for tight ends. The 49ers allowed the lowest YPR last year at 9.6 and eighth-fewest receptions of 20+ yards.
Top Movies and Shows I’ve Watched since last NFL season
These are movies and shows that released in 2024. I didn’t see everything, so if you have a recommendation in addition to my “Honorable Mention” list, have at it.
Super Special: The Last Kingdom — Didn’t debut in 2024, but we never watched it, and started it this summer. It’s better than Game of Thrones. I said it.
Honorable Mention/Still Watching/Plan to Watch: Bad Monkey, Bad Boys: Ride or Die, Alien: Romulus, The Boys: S4… maybe
🚨 HEADS UP 🚨 These can differ from my rankings, and MY RANKS are the order I’d start players outside of added context, such as, “Need highest upside, even if risky.” Also, based on 4-point TDs for QB, 6-point rest, and Half-PPR
Download Link Added Thursday
🚨 HEADS UP 🚨
(Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
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