The NFL (and fantasy football) season is flying by. The fantasy playoffs are fast approaching, so every single week counts. With that in mind, let’s take a look at the best and worst fantasy matchups for Week 9 using the FantasyPros Fantasy Points Allowed tool.
Good Matchup: Patrick Mahomes (QB – KC) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
It’s hard to believe we’ve come to this point, but Patrick Mahomes is a matchup-based streamer for fantasy purposes at this point. With that said, he has an excellent matchup this week, as the Buccaneers give up 23.4 points per game to opposing quarterbacks, the most of any team. Mahomes is still yet to have a QB1 finish so far this season, but this should be the week that changes.
Bad Matchup: Kyler Murray (QB – ARI) vs. Chicago Bears
Kyler Murray has had a run of solid fantasy outings, with at least 20 fantasy points in three of his last four games. With that said, two of those four games relied on huge rushing touchdowns. Murray is still just a fringe QB1 for the season in fantasy football rankings. That sets him up badly for this week, as the Bears have been the best unit in the league at shutting down opposing QBs, giving up just 10.9 points per game. If you’ve been relying on Kyler as your QB1, this is a week to look for another option.
Good Matchup: Tony Pollard (RB – TEN) vs. New England Patriots
Last week, Tony Pollard made the bad matchup category, so it’s nice to see him on the positive side for a change. So far this season, Pollard has seen elite usage (especially with Tyjae Spears sidelined), and he even ranks solidly in advanced metrics after a down season last year. However, he has been held back by the Titans’ overall offensive ineptitude.
That shouldn’t happen this week, as Tennesee is favored by 3.5 points against the Patriots. Mostly because of the fact they are usually playing from behind, New England has given up the fourth-most points to opposing running backs. They also rank fourth-highest in both rushing yards and rushing touchdowns allowed to RBs. In a good matchup with what should hopefully be a positive game script for once, Pollard is a great start this week.
Bad Matchup: Bucky Irving (RB – TB) @ Kansas City Chiefs
At this point, the bad RB matchup section can be reserved for whoever is playing the Chiefs. Kansas City gives up just 11.7 points per game to opposing running backs; no other team is below even 15. Where the Chiefs are particularly effective is in limiting opponents’ RBs on the ground — that’s why this pick is Bucky Irving instead of Rachaad White, who is more of a pass-catcher.
The Chiefs allow just 50 rushing yards per game to opposing backs, which is easily the lowest in the league. Combine that with how crowded the Buccaneers’ backfield has become with Sean Tucker‘s emergence, and Irving is not a player to start this week.
Good Matchup: Courtland Sutton (WR – DEN) @ Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens rank second in the league with 37.4 points per game given up to opposing receivers. They boast the perfect combination of an elite offense (that just got even better with the addition of Diontae Johnson) and a truly terrible secondary. After all, this is a team that just gave up at least 79 yards to three separate receivers on the Browns.
For Week 9, Courtland Sutton is the obvious pick to take advantage of this matchup. He has been up and down this season, but the veteran receiver still easily leads the Broncos with a 22% target share and a 39% air yards share. In a game where Bo Nix will be dropping back early and often, Sutton is someone you can trust in your lineups.
Bad Matchup: Zay Flowers (WR – BAL) vs. Denver Broncos
However, things don’t look so good on the other side of this matchup. The Broncos rank as the worst defense to face for receivers, giving up just 20.4 points per game to the position. This is despite them having played multiple games without arguably the best cornerback in the league in Patrick Surtain. Surtain is back healthy and will likely cover Zay Flowers often in Week 9.
This matchup is made even worse by the fact the Ravens are massive nine-point favorites; we know Baltimore is more than happy to completely shut down their passing game and rely on Derrick Henry when they have the lead. Diontae Johnson‘s arrival adds just one more wrinkle that could cut into Flowers’ usage. Put it all together, and I recommend leaving the sophomore on your bench in Week 9.
Good Matchup: Cade Otton (TE – TB) @ Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs may rank second to the Panthers in terms of points per game given up to tight ends, but I would argue they are the best fantasy matchup for the position. Kansas City leads the league in targets, receptions and yards per game given up to opposing tight ends; they just happen to have allowed fewer touchdowns to tight ends than the Panthers. As you may know, yards and receptions are much more sticky stats than touchdowns, for defenses as well as offensive players.
Cade Otton also clearly gets a huge boost from the absence of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin in this Buccaneers offense, having racked up nine catches for 81 yards and two touchdowns last week. In case you still have any lingering doubts after his huge performance last week, this is your sign to add Otton if he is available on the waiver wire in your league. You can stick him directly into your lineup for this prime matchup.
Bad Matchup: Zach Ertz (TE – WAS) @ New York Giants
Zach Ertz has been a serviceable streaming tight end for most of this season and is coming off his two best outings of the year over the last two weeks. Unfortunately, this week does not seem to be another good week for the veteran tight end. The Giants have given up the fourth-fewest points to opposing tight ends so far this season (5.8 per game).
New York’s defense also gives up the second-fewest targets per game to the position (4.6). Without any real explosive ability at this stage of his career, Ertz needs volume to get the job done. He’s not likely to get that in this matchup, so you should look elsewhere to find a streaming TE for this week.
Subscribe: YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | iHeart | Castbox | Amazon Music | Podcast Addict | TuneIn
Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for FantasyPros.com. Find him on Twitter @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.
It takes a special set of circumstances for Major League Baseball to get better head-to-head ratings against the NFL but that's exactly what surrounded Monday n
It’s officially time for the high school football playoffs across the state of Iowa, with the bigger classifications joining the fun this week. On3 is tr
Courtesy of GSU Athletic Communications WACO, Texas – Legendary former HBCU football star from Grambling State and Super Bowl winning head coach Doug
Use of and/or registration on any portion of this site constitutes acceptance of our User Agreement, (updated 8/1/2024) and acknowledgement of our Privacy P