Sam Darnold was the QB8 in fantasy football 2024, leading the Vikings to 14 wins heading into their NFC North Division and No. 1 seed showdown on Sunday night against the Detroit Lions. More importantly, he helped produce the No. 4 and No. 20 wide receivers in PPR points per game, one of just four quarterbacks to put two receivers in the Top 20. Moreover, both receivers played every game, so those averages aren’t distorted by a couple of big days across fewer games.

He’s been a standout late-round/waiver-wire QB in our game, winning for those fantasy managers who drafted his receivers. And in real life, he’s winning at a historic level, posting the most wins by a quarterback in his first year with a team. He’s also a pending free agent, meaning Minnesota has a decision to make regarding Darnold and injured rookie QB J.J. McCarthy.

From a fantasy perspective, the best possible outcome would be for the Vikings to maintain the sensational status quo and re-sign Darnold. And in the process, they should deal away McCarthy, scoring strong value in a 2025 draft short on top QB talent — and giving another QB-needy team an upgrade at a position that plagued them in 2024. If you dig into it, the fantasy world’s preference and the real-world assessment align. Here’s how.

Despite Darnold’s success in 2024, many Vikings fans and experts worship at the altar of a rookie QB contract, even though, according to Amaeya Deshpande of Bruin Sports Analytics, its alleged value doesn’t withstand scrutiny.

Says Deshpande, “…the notion that teams have a greater likelihood to succeed with a quarterback on a rookie contract is false. The data suggests that there is close to an equal chance of success at each of these levels between rookie deal and non-rookie deal quarterbacks.”

Yet, as the No. 10 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, McCarthy’s contract value is why many are urging the Vikings to move on and send Darnold off to another team.

If McCarthy had returned to Michigan, he’d be the obvious 1.1 pick this April. He’s in another tier from the QBs available in this class.

Trading him while erasing your salary cap warchest would be an unforced error by a front office that hasn’t made many the past year and a half https://t.co/oIEdcRelWW

— Thor Nystrom (@thorku) January 1, 2025

I’m already so sick of these JJ McCarthy trade discussions. The Vikings have no reason at all to move him even if they DID extend Sam Darnold.

KOC has already said he is the franchise QB. These stupid trade talks need to be put to bed. pic.twitter.com/Pw9U61w8uW

— 𝙆𝙖𝙨𝙚 (@verysadvikings) January 2, 2025

Irrespective of the Vikings, this would be a terrible development for fantasy football. Those who play the fake game should want the status quo in Minnesota, with McCarthy shipped off to a team weak at QB. This way, we get continued productivity from Darnold and Minnesota receivers, and another team gets the chance at a quality quarterback.

If Darnold were to go elsewhere, he’d likely perform worse given the environment he’d join would be weaker than what he’d leave in Minnesota. Additionally, the Vikings offense will likely be significantly worse in 2025 than in 2024, even if McCarthy eventually morphs into what his supporters expect.

The bust risk for McCarthy is very real, given he was just the No. 10 overall pick. I’m not pretending I know anything more about eventual QB success than NFL scouts and general managers. I just know history says the odds of hitting with this level of a pick (6-10 range) is about 40 percent. Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Justin Herbert and Ryan Tannehill have been hits to various degrees this century. Jake Locker, Byron Leftwich, Blaine Gabbert, Matt Leinart and Josh Rosen were busts. And we must include Daniel Jones (now, ironically, a Viking) in the bust bucket, too.

If history repeats, Minnesota’s top fantasy receivers, Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, would be hampered for years by the team going with McCarthy.

Let’s look at the Vikings’ current options. What would you do? Keep Darnold on a franchise tag? The critics say that’s $50 million a year against the cap. For a short-term deal, yes. But if the Vikings believe in Darnold, they could sign him to a 5-year, $250-million contract and push a crippling cap hit off indefinitely. If the free-agent QB becomes Deshaun Watsonesque on the field, this option is a disaster. You’re either stuck with an underperforming Darnold or move on from him and incur a massive cap charge. Most free agents are older than Darnold, who is still younger than Joe Burrow. Darnold could be extended two or three times to provide a steady stream of cap relief.

Keeping McCarthy is seen as a cap bonanza, but nobody cares about the cost if a quarterback is good; if he’s bad, nobody cares about the savings.

McCarthy might not make it in the NFL, but his chance is about as good as the top 2025 QB prospects. So he’s worth that much draft capital, which would be a top-10 pick. Would you rather have Darnold and a top-10 pick (acquired by trading McCarthy) or McCarthy and his cap savings? The Vikings are $70 million under the 2025 cap. I’m taking the high draft pick.

The Vikings could be the No. 1 seed — heck, they could win a Super Bowl — and get a top-10 or even top-five player at a position of need (QB is not a position of need).

But McCarthy backers will suggest using the franchise tag on Darnold and then trading him. Okay, but for what? Remember, a team has to pay him a top-of-the-market contract. You have to take offers. Teams in the top 10 will probably want to scout and interview the 2025 QBs to assess their options fully. The tag will cost the Vikings $40 million in cap room until he’s traded, hamstringing them during free agency. Then the team that receives Darnold would have to negotiate a contract, and he’d have to pass a physical.

Some believe the Vikings should franchise Darnold and keep both, though Darnold would be grossly punished, losing about $60 million in guaranteed money. The Vikings would consume most of their cap space on Darnold (instead of spreading it out in a long-term deal). And they would lose McCarthy’s draft value, which, given his salary, is greater than Darnold’s. (Remember, the team getting McCarthy is QB-poor, desperate and has a lot of roster holes they need QB money to plug.)

A top-10 overall pick — at, say, tackle or edge — gives Minnesota tremendous surplus value if it hits. And tackles and pass rushers are more likely to hit than QBs.

So, do the interests of fantasy football and the Vikings align? Yes, I believe they do. The Vikings looking out for their best interests is also the best result for fantasy players.

Where would McCarthy’s ideal landing spot be among teams with a top-10 pick? (The teams are locked in, but the order is not.)

Here are the certain options: the Tennessee Titans, New York Giants, New York Jets and Las Vegas Raiders. Maybe the Carolina Panthers, if they’ve given up on Bryce Young, or the Cleveland Browns if they say goodbye to Watson and start over. Maybe the New Orleans Saints, though EPA says Derek Carr has been better than Darnold in 2024 (I disagree). There are a lot of teams in need of a QB on a rookie contract.

The Browns and the Jets have been QB wastelands, but both teams have good offensive players who will be returning. Las Vegas would have one great partner for McCarthy in Brock Bowers, and maybe Tom Brady would come on board to train his fellow Michigan alum. Given Chris Olave’s concussion history and Alvin Kamara’s age, the Saints have massive uncertainty at all the skill positions. The Titans probably are the weakest of the teams, given that Calvin Ridley is too old to be a battery mate for McCarthy.

The Giants could have had McCarthy last year and passed. I’m not positive they like him enough to pay up. They certainly didn’t want him as a franchise QB last year, we can assume. However, there may be a new hierarchy in New York. McCarthy and Malik Nabers would be a fantastic fantasy pairing and help make sense of the 2024 Nabers pick.

The Jets have Garrett Wilson but not much else, assuming Davante Adams is allowed to pursue other teams. Breece Hall was disappointing when it came to playmaking in 2024. Plus, the Jets are to QBs what Van Helsing is to vampires.

Big Blue has the most dynamic receiving weapon to pair with McCarthy. So, if he ends up in New York, the Giants seem to be the better landing spot.

(Top photo of Sam Darnold, J.J. McCarthy: Jeffrey Becker / USA TODAY Sports)