Veteran guard Damian Lillard was one of the top Fantasy basketball picks at his position last year, but he struggled in his first season with Milwaukee. His scoring average dropped from 32.2 points per game in 2022-23 to just 24.3 in 2023-24, leaving owners wondering how to assess him in 2024-25 Fantasy basketball drafts. Lillard shares the court with one of the best players in the NBA in Giannis Antetokounmpo, who averaged more than 30 points and 11 rebounds last year. Antetokounmpo is a player who many owners will build their 2024 Fantasy basketball lineups around, but he is also one of the first players off the board in drafts. 

Finding 2024-25 Fantasy basketball sleepers and 2024 Fantasy basketball breakouts is the key to having a well-rounded lineup that can compete for a championship. Celtics veteran Derrick White turned into a top-30 Fantasy player in his eighth NBA season, but there is a chance that could make him overvalued as a 2024-25 Fantasy basketball bust. Before making any 2024-25 Fantasy basketball picks, be sure to check out the 2024 Fantasy basketball rankings and cheat sheets from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

SportsLine’s proven model simulates each season 10,0000 times. This model is powered by the same people who powered projections for all three major Fantasy sites. These cheat sheets and rankings, available for leagues on many major sites, are updated multiple times every day. Any time an injury occurs or there’s a change on a roster, the team at SportsLine updates its cheat sheets.

Last year the model called Thunder G/F Josh Giddey a bust, predicting that he would never live up to his sixth-round ADP. The result: Giddey had his minutes reduced significantly with Oklahoma City’s roster improving and saw corresponding drops in points (16.6 to 12.3), rebounds (7.9 to 6.4) assists (6.2 to 4.8) and steals (0.8 to 0.6). The Thunder ultimately decided to trade him to the Bulls for Alex Caruso this offseason and Fantasy basketball managers who avoided the headache last season were better off for it.

The model also nailed DeMar DeRozan as a sleeper in 2021-22 before he averaged a career-best 27.9 points per game and called Paolo Banchero’s and Victor Wembanyama’s breakout seasons before they went on to win NBA Rookie of the Year honors the last two seasons. Anyone who followed the model’s Fantasy basketball advice on them was well on their way to making a deep postseason run.

Now, SportsLine has simulated the entire NBA season 10,000 times and released its latest Fantasy basketball rankings 2024-25, along with plenty of sleepers, breakouts and busts. Head to SportsLine now to see these 2024-25 Fantasy basketball rankings. 

Top 2024 Fantasy basketball sleepers 

One of the top 2024 Fantasy basketball sleepers the model is predicting: Grizzlies point guard Ja Morant. You wouldn’t normally think of a two-time All-Star like Morant as a sleeper, but he’s fallen a bit off the radar due to a pair of suspensions, plus an injury, over the last two years. Morant has played in just 17 of a possible 102 regular-season games for Memphis since early March of 2023.

Over his nine games last year, he was still elite, averaging 25.1 points, 8.1 assists and 5.6 rebounds. It was a small sample size, but Luka Doncic, Nikola Jokic and LeBron James were the only other players to average at least 25-8-5 in the 2023-24 NBA season. Morant is fully recovered from shoulder surgery, well-rested, and he says he’s in a good place mentally, which could be a scary sight for the rest of the league as he embarks on a revenge tour. The 2024 Fantasy basketball rankings slot Morant as a top-three Fantasy point guard, even putting him ahead of Steph Curry. See more Fantasy basketball sleepers 2024 here.

Top 2024 Fantasy basketball breakouts 

One of the 2024 Fantasy basketball breakouts the model has identified: Hawks forward Zaccharie Risacher. The No. 1 overall pick in this year’s draft brings an elite 3-and-D skill set to Atlanta, knocking down nearly 40% of his 3-point attempts while playing professionally in France last season. He enters a situation where he will receive immediate minutes alongside one of the league’s top playmakers in Trae Young, who will take some of the attention off the rookie. 

Risacher can play to his strengths as an off-ball shooter and slasher, which is the role he played with JL Bourg last year. He has a chance to be a starter at the very beginning of the season, especially since he brings a strong defensive ability as well. SportsLine’s model has identified Risacher as one of its top breakout picks, ranking him ahead of other forwards like PJ Washington, Jonathan Kuminga and Keegan Murray. Identify other Fantasy basketball breakouts 2024 here.

Top 2024 Fantasy basketball busts

As for players to avoid, the model lists Jazz forward Lauri Markkanen as one of its top 2024 Fantasy basketball busts. After a breakout 2022-23 season in which he made his first All-Star Game as was named Most Improved Player, Markkanen regressed in the 2023-24 season. His FG%, PPG and RPG all decreased and he dealt with three separate injuries that caused him to miss one-third of the season. His name was then floated in trade rumors in the offseason before signing a five-year extension with Utah.

However, that doesn’t preclude the Finn from possibly being moved, and Utah has used back-to-back top-10 draft picks on fellow forwards. The team also still has John Collins and Walker Kessler in the frontcourt, so if Markkanen’s numbers continue to decline, then the Jazz have other options to turn to. While his 2024 Fantasy basketball ADP has him as the second SF being drafted on average, the model isn’t as high on Markkanen and slots him outside the top eight players at the position. Avoid these 2024 Fantasy basketball busts as well.

How to find proven 2024-25 Fantasy basketball rankings

SportsLine is also has a shocking prediction for one of the league’s biggest names and advises avoiding him in 2024 Fantasy basketball drafts at his current ADP. This bust fails to live up to his first-round ADP, ranking behind players available in the third round or later like Damian Lillard and James Harden. You can only see who it is, and the 2024 Fantasy basketball rankings for every player, at SportsLine.

So which 2024-25 Fantasy basketball sleepers, breakouts and busts should you target and fade, and which huge name should you avoid? Visit SportsLine now to get 2024-25 Fantasy basketball cheat sheets for every single position, all from the model that’s nailed its Fantasy basketball picks, and find out.

Consensus Top 100 Fantasy Basketball ADP 2024-25

1. Nikola Jokic (DEN – C)
2. Victor Wembanyama (SAS – C,PF)
3. Luka Doncic (DAL – PG,SG)
4. Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL – PF,C)
5. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC – PG,SG)
6. Jayson Tatum (BOS – SF,PF)
7. Tyrese Haliburton (IND – PG,SG)
8. Joel Embiid (PHI – C)
9. Anthony Edwards (MIN – SG,SF)
10. Anthony Davis (LAL – PF,C)
11. Stephen Curry (GSW – PG,SG)
12. Domantas Sabonis (SAC – PF,C)
13. Trae Young (ATL – PG)
14. Devin Booker (PHO – PG,SF,SG)
15. LeBron James (LAL – PF,SF)
16. Kevin Durant (PHO – SF,PF)
17. Donovan Mitchell (CLE – PG,SG)
18. Jalen Brunson (NYK – PG,SG)
19. Scottie Barnes (TOR – PF,SF,SG)
20. Chet Holmgren (OKC – C,PF)
21. Kyrie Irving (DAL – PG,SG)
22. De’Aaron Fox (SAC – PG)
23. Alperen Sengun (HOU – C)
24. Damian Lillard (MIL – PG)
25. Ja Morant (MEM – PG)
26. Dejounte Murray (NOR – PG,SG)
27. Tyrese Maxey (PHI – PG,SG)
28. Paolo Banchero (ORL – PF,SF)
29. LaMelo Ball (CHA – PG,SG)
30. Bam Adebayo (MIA – C)
31. James Harden (LAC – PG,SG)
32. Kawhi Leonard (LAC – PF,SF,SG)
33. Paul George (PHI – SF,PF,SG)
34. Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN – C,PF)
35. Lauri Markkanen (UTH – PF,SF)
36. Jaylen Brown (BOS – SG,SF)
37. Desmond Bane (MEM – SF,SG)
38. Evan Mobley (CLE – C,PF)
39. Jaren Jackson Jr. (MEM – PF,C)
40. Cade Cunningham (DET – PG,SG)
41. DeMar DeRozan (SAC – PF,SF,SG)
42. Pascal Siakam (IND – C,PF,SF)
43. Jalen Williams (OKC – PF,SF,SG)
44. Nikola Vucevic (CHI – C,PF)
45. Jamal Murray (DEN – PG,SG)
46. Zion Williamson (NOR – C,PF)
47. Franz Wagner (ORL – PF,SF,SG)
48. Mikal Bridges (NYK – PF,SF,SG)
49. Jimmy Butler (MIA – PF,SF)
50. Rudy Gobert (MIN – C)
51. Derrick White (BOS – PG,SG)
52. Brandon Ingram (NOR – PF,SF,SG)
53. Myles Turner (IND – C)
54. Jarrett Allen (CLE – C)
55. Deandre Ayton (POR – C)
56. Fred VanVleet (HOU – PG)
57. Darius Garland (CLE – PG)
58. Jalen Green (HOU – PG,SG)
59. Nic Claxton (BKN – C,PF)
60. Josh Giddey (CHI – PG,SF,SG)
61. Zach LaVine (CHI – SG,SF)
62. Julius Randle (NYK – PF)
63. Keegan Murray (SAC – PF,SF)
64. Immanuel Quickley (TOR – PG,SG)
65. Kristaps Porzingis (BOS – PF,C) OUT
66. Brandon Miller (CHA – SF,SG)
67. Austin Reaves (LAL – PG,SF,SG)
68. Miles Bridges (CHA – SF,PF)
69. D’Angelo Russell (LAL – PG,SG)
70. Jalen Duren (DET – C)
71. CJ McCollum (NOR – PG,SG)
72. Devin Vassell (SAS – SG,SF)
73. Kyle Kuzma (WAS – SF,PF)
74. Michael Porter Jr. (DEN – PF,SF)
75. Tobias Harris (DET – SF,PF)
76. Jrue Holiday (BOS – PG,SG)
77. Tyler Herro (MIA – PG,SG)
78. Jabari Smith Jr. (HOU – C,PF)
79. Cam Thomas (BKN – SG)
80. Jalen Johnson (ATL – PF,SF)
81. Brook Lopez (MIL – C)
82. Bradley Beal (PHO – PG,SG)
83. Jusuf Nurkic (PHO – C)
84. Jonathan Kuminga (GSW – PF)
85. Jonas Valanciunas (WAS – C)
86. Coby White (CHI – PG,SG)
87. Jordan Poole (WAS – PG,SG)
88. Walker Kessler (UTH – C)
89. Jakob Poeltl (TOR – C)
90. RJ Barrett (TOR – PF,SF,SG)
91. Anfernee Simons (POR – PG,SG)
92. Mark Williams (CHA – C)
93. Clint Capela (ATL – C)
94. Khris Middleton (MIL – SF,SG)
95. Terry Rozier (MIA – PG,SG)
96. OG Anunoby (NYK – PF,SF)
97. Klay Thompson (DAL – SG,SF)
98. Tyus Jones (PHO – PG)
99. Chris Paul (SAS – PG)
100. John Collins (UTH – C,PF)