Calling a race with only seven entrants a two-horse may not sound exciting, but the good news for bettors when it comes to the Grade 2 Rachel Alexandra on Saturday at Fair Grounds is that one of those two fillies clearly offers more value.

Good Cheer makes her 3-year-old debut in the Rachel Alexandra, sporting a perfect record by winning her four starts by a combined 32 1/2 lengths. It’s as impressive a resume as you’ll find in this type of race, especially considering all four wins are at two turns and have come at two tracks on two track conditions and against stakes company with wins in the Rags to Riches and Golden Rod.

Of course, all of that coupled with Brad Cox legging up Luis Saez for the Godolphin homebred adds up to this filly taking serious money, and favorites do not have to win this race. In fact, it has not happened since Serengeti Empress in 2019, a string of five consecutive losers at odds between 2-5 and 2.1-1 including a pair, British Idiom and Travel Column, trained by Brad Cox.

The biggest threat to Good Cheer here is Simply Joking, who has a decided pace advantage against Good Cheer, and I have to think trainer Whit Beckman will give jockey Jaime Torres instructions similar to before the Silverbulletday Stakes, which she won in gate-to-wire fashion.

As seen by my fair odds, I have these two fillies as close to equal chances to win this race, so the pick on top is clearly to go with Simply Joking. 

Others in here look overmatched by the top two, especially with Simply Joking’s pace advantage. But it’s always worth watching the board because if Good Cheer is odds-on, then maybe another floats up enough to take a flyer on. But make no mistake: I am most bullish on Simply Joking.