When it comes to plotting a wagering strategy for the Grade 2 Pegasus Filly & Mare Turf on Saturday at Gulfstream Park, there is good news and there is bad news.
The bad news is that this is the most competitive race on the 13-race Pegasus World Cup card, but all the contenders are among the logical contenders. That means there is no long shot to get really excited about, and it is tough to know how the public will bet the race.
The good news is that as the second leg of the all-stakes Pick 5, we’ll get a peak via the double probables, and as first leg of the all-stakes pick 4, we’ll have even more wagering information.
One thing is for certain, among the contenders, I like morning-line favorite Raqiya least (fair odds 9-1), so there has to be at least some opportunity if she is anywhere close to favored.
In a tight race, I have Sacred Wish as the most likely winner. That troubled trip two back behind the aforementioned Raqiya in the Goldikova (G3) made it impossible for her to run. She got John Velazquez on board for the Matriarch (G1), which she won against a deep field, and Velazquez returns here. I also like the added half-furlong for her. The post isn’t great, but she has speed to get position.
Speaking of outside posts, Bless My Stars’s is not any better, but I prefer her to the other Todd Pletcher trainee, Raqiya. Interestingly enough, like Riqiya, Bless My Stars also is making her second start in America. She was too far out of it off a nine-month layoff last time and should improve here while getting up to five pounds from key rivals.
So why the lack of love for Riqiya after mentioning her in relation to both of my top contenders? I just think that gate-to-wire win in the American debut will be overvalued. Brisnet rates it as a slow pace, and her primary threat, Sacred Wish, had lots of trouble that day.
Be Your Best and Fluffy Socks are my next two choices. I slightly prefer the latter in part because the connections of Fluffy Socks are money magnets in this type of race.
It is worth nothing, however, that Raqiya and Be Your Best are ridden by Frankie Dettori and Edgard Zayas, respectively, and those two pilots are a combined 0-56 on Pegasus World Cup days at Gulfstream, 2017-24.
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