We have covered the three dirt races in the all-stakes Pick 4 on Saturday at Fair Grounds, and although the Silverbulletday, Louisiana and Lecomte Stakes all feature likely value plays, I don’t expect any to pay more than $20, which is sort of my bar to get excited about ballooning multi-race wager payoffs.

Enter the Colonel E. R. Bradley Stakes, which is leg 2 of the sequence that ends with the Lecomte. This turf race, a local prep for the Grade 3 Fair Grounds and Muniz Memorial Stakes (G2), both presented by Horse Racing Nation, attracted 14 entrants and will have the longest-priced favorite of the quartet.

Who that favorite will be, I’m not quite sure. Gigante is the 7-2 morning-line favorite, and Northern Invader and Wadsworth are the co-second choices at 5-1. But Horse Racing Nation projects Wadsworth as closer to Gigante in pricing than Northern Invader. Comparing that against my fair odds, there might be opportunity with Wadsworth, but the other two are clear tosses.

A positive of the Bradley being leg 2 of this Pick 4 is that we will be able to see how the race is being bet via the double will-pays with the Silverbulletday. As noted in the Silverbulletday link above, Simply Joking is a solid single for me to start the sequence, so I’m not looking to use any of the short prices in the Bradley. 

I would most expect the quintet of Gray’s Fable, Duke of Carthania, What Say Thee, Money Supply and Tonka Warrior to be the ones I’m most excited to use. Duke of Carthania could be a huge price, and he is a worthy long shot, don’t get me wrong. But he is by no means impossible coming from the clouds in a race with plenty of pace.

Two of Money Supply’s three turf races were against better than these given the Grade 1 designation on one and the $500,000 purse on the other. That third turf race was a win at Horseshoe Indianapolis. Tonka Warrior can improve here second off the layoff.