Picking the favorite in a competitive or wide-open field generally is not ideal, but that is one of the reasons I like the fair-odds exercise. It puts into focus the potential for value, and the bettor can act accordingly.

Also worth noting is that because of takeout, it is possible that there is no value in a particular race. But with 12 entered in the Grade 3 Iroquois on Saturday at Churchill Downs, the plethora of wagering options, including 121 exacta combos and 1,210 trifecta combos, should include opportunity.

The conversation starts with Owen Almighty, a winner of both career starts by a combined 8 1/4 lengths. The bad news is he’ll have his third jockey in as many starts, which seems odd for a colt of his talent. The good news is that jockey is Irad Ortiz Jr., who with Flavien Prat has established himself as a top two jockey in the western hemisphere.

Though this is a Kentucky Derby points race, it is fair to wonder how far Owen Almighty wants to go, being by Speightstown out of a Bayern mare. Speightstown was a champion sprinter, and altough Bayern won the Breeders’ Cup Classic, his average win distance as a broodmaresire is just 6.5 furlongs. Speightstown’s as a sire is 6.6. But that’s for worrying about in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. If Owen Almighty wins this, a one-turn mile should not be an issue.

The other primary contenders are Sandman, Jonathan’s Way and Politicallycorrect. All figure to be underlays based on their morning-line prices against my fair odds. To be fair, Owen Almighty does too, but his 5-2 morning line price is closer to my 3-1 fair odds.

All that said, in a 12-horse field, betting can get wonky. I could see Owen Almighty as high as 7-2, which not only makes him the value but also means none of the other aforementioned three “primary contenders” are likely to offer any sort of value. If Owen Almighty is less than 5-2, however, then there is a good chance one of those other three offers overlaid odds.

From a multi-race standpoint, my expectation is that the public will spread here, so I am comfortable singlng Owen Almighty. Vertically, I’ll play around with Owen Almighty at his fair odds and look at the exotic will-pays involving the longer prices of my other contenders.