It is rare that the most likely winner in a five-horse field offers value, but that could be in play Saturday at Fair Grounds when Admiral Dennis faces four rivals in his stakes debut.

None of the 2-year-olds in the Gun Runner Stakes are stakes placed, and only a pair of the quintet have even competed in stakes competition. Admiral Dennis has been the most impressive to me. I think he wins this race half the time, making his 9-5 morning line a bargain.

Sent off as the 5-2 favorite against 10 others on debut, Admiral Dennis found some trouble mid-pack and never got a sustained rally going late. He stretched out to a one-turn mile in his second start, pressing the pace early before running away from eight others at 3-5. It was super impressive and earned a 11 Ragozin Figure, easily the best here.

There is no reason to think Luis Saez will not employ similar tactics here from the outside post. Render Judgment has Brisnet late-pace ratings to compete, but the early-pace ratings indicate he will be way too far out of it. This is all Admiral Dennis.

Magnitude makes sense and is sure to take money because of the the trainer Steve Asmussen-jockey Jose Ortiz combo. But nothing about his runs to date suggest he can keep up with what we saw from Admiral Dennis last out.

I am surprised to see Built at 7-2 on the morning line. I have him as the least likely winner by far for the two-turn debut off a long layoff. Hate disrespecting the Catman, aka trainer Wayne Catalano, like that, but this is a tall order.

Admiral Dennis is a single for me in multi-race wagers, and I’ll look to key the deuce underneath and hope he can sneak past Magnitude late.