Saturday’s $300,000, Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes Presented by DK Horse at Santa Anita Park is the marquee prep race for West Coast-based 2-year-olds on the Road to the Breeders’ Cup. It’s a “Win and You’re In” qualifier for the FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance, which will be held Nov. 1 at nearby Del Mar, giving the winner a fees-paid berth to the World Championships event.

The American Pharoah also will be the first prep race in California to offer qualifying points to the 2025 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve. The top five finishers of the American Pharoah will earn points toward the 151^st Kentucky Derby on a 10-5-3-2-1 scale.

Seven juveniles are entered in the American Pharoah and three of them are trained by Bob Baffert. The highly successful but embattled Baffert has won the Kentucky Derby six times, which is tied for the most in the race’s history, but he was banned from participating in the Derby from 2022-’24 stemming from the disqualification of his trainee Medina Spirit from first in the 2021 Derby. Now that Baffert’s Derby ban has been lifted by Churchill Downs Inc., Saturday’s American Pharoah Stakes is even more intriguing because it will be a prep race for both the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and the Kentucky Derby for the three Baffert horses entered.

Two of those Baffert colts, #3 Citizen Bull and #7 Getaway Car, enter the American Pharoah off starts in the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity held at seven furlongs on Sept. 8, a race won by yet another Baffert-trained prospect, Gaming. Citizen Bull finished third by a neck over Getaway Car, who set the early pace in the Del Mar Futurity before tiring, and the pair were well behind Gaming and runner-up #1 McKinzie Street, who was keen early and had to check briefly entering the turn but ran on well in the homestretch to finish a clear second.

McKinzie Street earned an eye-catching 100 Equibase Speed Figure in the Del Mar Futurity, an eight-point improvement from the 92 he registered when winning a 5 ½-furlong maiden race July 28 at Del Mar. Despite being pegged as the 9-5 morning-line favorite, he might be overlooked somewhat in the parimutuel betting as post time nears due to the presence of the Baffert-trained trio, but his credentials stack up well against them and he should be able to handle stretching out to two turns in the 1 1/16-mile American Pharoah. Trainer Tim Yakteen has been working the colt steadily at Santa Anita since the Del Mar Futurity and underrated jockey Kazushi Kimura is back in the saddle after riding McKinzie Street in his first two starts.

My betting strategy for the American Pharoah will be as follows: first, I’ll bet McKinzie Street to win at odds of 5-2 or higher. Getaway Car is the 2-1 morning-line second choice in the American Pharoah, while Citizen Bull is the third choice at 5-2, and I would not be surprised at all to see one or both of them end up favored over McKinzie Street. If that does happen, after my win bet I’ll key McKinzie Street first and second in exacta bets with Citizen Bull (who has precocity in his bloodline as a relative to champion juvenile and Horse of the Year Favorite Trick), Getaway Car (who removes blinkers Saturday), and #5 Emerald Bay.

Emerald Bay is the “other Baffert” in this race and is 6-1 on the morning line. He will be making his stakes debut, but unlike the other horses discussed, he’s already won around two turns, taking a one-mile Del Mar maiden by three lengths on Aug. 24. That came in his second start, following a runner-up finish to McKinzie Street in the 5 ½-furlong sprint mentioned above. Baffert’s first-call rider in California, Juan Hernandez, rode Emerald Bay in that race but sticks with Getaway Car in the American Pharoah, and Antonio Fresu will pick up the mount on Emerald Bay.

Betting Strategy on a $30 Budget:

$12 to win on McKinzie Street at odds of 5-2 or higher

Santa Anita Park, Race 9, $12 win on #1 ($12)

$4 exacta, key McKinzie Street over Citizen Bull, Emerald Bay, and Getaway Car

Santa Anita Park, Race 9, $4 exacta, #1 with #3, #5, and #7 ($12)

$2 exacta, key Citizen Bull, Emerald Bay, and Getaway Car with McKinzie Street

Santa Anita Park, Race 9, $2 exacta, #3, #5, and #7 with #1 ($6)

NOTE: If McKinzie Street is bet down to under 5-2, I’ll change the exacta wager that keys him on top to an $8 base bet, totaling $24.

Good luck and enjoy the race!

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