When the Way-Too-Early rankings were rolled out last week, ESPN placed Georgia at No. 5. ESPN statistics junkie Bill Connelly set out to project how the next College Football Playoff might unfold. Based on the ESPN rankings, Georgia would be the No. 7 seed and host No. 10 South Carolina in the first round, with the winner taking on No. 2 Texas in the quarterfinals, presumably at the Sugar Bowl. Connelly chose to take a different route for his projections, using what he termed “old-school heuristics.”

Connelly applied this rule for the winner of the SEC Championship, which is not guaranteed a seed but is likely to be one of the four-highest ranked conference champions:

It has to be won by either Kirby Smart (2017, 2022, 2024) or a coach who has proved he can beat Kirby Smart (2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2023). Since Georgia’s initial breakthrough under Smart, the only teams that have won the SEC are either Georgia or a team coached by someone — either Nick Saban (Alabama) or Ed Orgeron (LSU) — who had beaten Smart’s Georgia in a previous season. 

Connelly mentions that the only team ranked higher than Georgia in the Way-Too-Early list is Texas, with Steve Sarkisian going 0-2 against Smart last season. The three SEC head coaches who have beaten Smart are Kalen DeBoer (Alabama), Lane Kiffin (Ole Miss), and Hugh Freeze (Auburn). Connelly went with Georgia.

 Like each of the other three contenders, the Dawgs will have a new starting quarterback in 2025, but on average the quarterback position seems to mean a bit less when Georgia is involved. The Dawgs threw for only 136 yards in the 2024 SEC championship game, after all, and still won. So Georgia grinds out Smart’s fourth SEC title.

The Dawgs are awarded the No. 1 seed, defeat Michigan in the Sugar Bowl quarterfinals, Alabama in the Peach Bowl semifinals, and fall to No. 2 Penn State in the CFP National Championship.

Hey, if Will Howard can win a national title, so can Drew Allar. Especially with new defensive coordinator Jim Knowles in Penn State’s corner.

Georgia is coming off an 11-3 season, winning the SEC Championship, and losing in the College Football Playoff quarterfinal at the Sugar Bowl. As far as starters departing, as of now, Georgia loses quarterback Carson Beck, running back Trevor Etienne, wide receivers Arian Smith and Dominic Lovett, offensive linemen Xavier Truss, Dylan Fairchild, Jared Wilson, and Tate Ratledge on offense. On defense, they lose defensive tackle Nazir Stackhouse, defensive end Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins, linebackers Jalon Walker and Chaz Chambliss, cornerback Julian Humphrey, and safeties Malaki Starks and Dan Jackson.

Georgia is set to open the 2025 season on Aug. 30 at home against Marshall. The top 25 matchups on Georgia’s schedule based on the 247Sports way-too-early Top 25 are at No. 9 Tennessee on Sept. 13, vs No. 8 Alabama on Sept. 27, vs No. 20 Auburn on Oct. 11, vs No. 19 Ole Miss on Oct. 18, vs No. 13 Florida in Jacksonville on Nov. 1, and vs No. 1 Texas on Nov. 15.