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The Game Matchups Preview series is dedicated to breaking down how the Buffalo Bills match up with their opponent in every game of the 2024 NFL season. This series will look at five key matchups: Bills Pass Offense vs. Opponent Pass Defense, Bills Rush Offense vs. Opponent Rush Defense, Bills Pass Defense vs. Opponent Pass Offense, Bills Rush Defense vs. Opponent Rush Offense, and Bills Special Teams vs. Opponent Special Teams. This entire analysis will conclude with three sections: “Why Buffalo Will Lose,” “Why Buffalo Will Win,” and a score prediction for the game.

Below I present 2024’s ninth edition of this analysis for the Bills Week 9 clash with the Miami Dolphins. Included is my “patented” 👏 scale which ranks the advantage in each matchup from 👏👏👏👏👏 (Massive Advantage) to 👏 (Minimal Advantage).

Josh Allen has been phenomenal this season, to the point where he is now the betting favorite to win NFL MVP. His 17:3 touchdown-to-turnover ratio is the best in the NFL while he ranks fourth in QBR (73.7) and second in QuBeR (73.81). Distribution has been key to this early season success, with 10 players accounting for five or more receptions and eight players pulling in a touchdown. This has made the Bills all the more difficult to defend as opponents have struggled to contain all five potential pass catchers on any given play, ultimately leaving one or multiple options open for Allen. This dynamism has made the Buffalo offense yet again one of the best in the NFL, and on Sunday afternoon, it will be one of its many keys to success.

That success will need to be achieved against a Miami Dolphins team that is reeling and in desperate need of a victory in this game. To achieve that, they will need their pass defense to play above expectations and for Buffalo’s offense to resemble what it did against the Ravens and Texans earlier this season. Relying on their outside corners to wreak havoc would be a sound strategy as both Jalen Ramsey (CB) and Kendall Fuller (CB) are plus players, but injuries have put those roles in flux. With starting nickel corner Kader Kohou likely to miss Sunday’s game his replacement will be second-year player Cam Smith, who plays almost exclusively outside. In these sets, Ramsey typically bumps down into the slot, meaning Buffalo will likely key on No. 5 to determine which part of the defense they will attack. Matters don’t improve much behind their corners as Jevon Holland is also likely to miss Sunday’s game, meaning Miami’s likely starters will be Jordan Poyer and Marcus Maye. While Poyer and Maye were each at one-point All-Pro caliber players, they are now significantly diminished in the late stages of their careers. This should open up the deep ball for the Bills, who can leverage the likes of Keon Coleman and Amari Cooper there while still having plus matchups with Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid underneath.

In the past, Miami could rely on its pass rush to prop up any perceived weaknesses in the secondary, but much like its defensive backs, its defensive line is full of injuries. The Dolphins’ sole elite edge rusher, Jaelan Phillips, suffered another season-ending injury while their best pass-rushing defensive tackle, Zach Sieler, suffered an orbital bone fracture in practice and is unable to take the field anytime soon. This means Miami will need one or more of its linemen to play above expectations or to facilitate a pass rush by leveraging the blitz in order to bring down one of the NFL’s best sack avoiders in Josh Allen. Players like Calais Cambell (DT) and Emmanuel Ogbah (DE) are the most likely candidates to find success here while Chop Robinson (ER) and Tyus Bowser (DE) have the potential to impact this game. Make no mistake though, as far as defensive lines go in their current state, this is one of the lesser units a Bills offensive line led by Dion Dawkins (LT), Connor McGovern (C), and Spencer Brown (RT) will have played this season. Buffalo should dominate here.

ADVANTAGE: Bills 👏👏👏👏

Related: Dolphins vs. Bills: 5 storylines to watch in NFL Week 9

There are four NFL players with 450 or more rushing yards and seven or more rushing touchdowns this season: Derrick Henry, Kyren Williams, David Montgomery, and…James Cook. The Buffalo rusher has been phenomenal this season as a threat on both the ground and through the air as he consistently exposes mismatches for the team to take advantage of. His vision seems to have improved significantly in year three as he has leaned into a patient approach to running the ball that is predicated on his offensive line opening holes for him to run through. And that offensive line has been phenomenal as Aaron Kromer has coached up his five starters as well as pseudo-sixth offensive lineman, Alec Anderson, to be dominant in multiple play styles. For truly the first time in the Josh Allen era, the Bills elite air attack has a dominant ground attack that they can rely on resulting in elite-level complementary football in Buffalo.

In their first matchup this season, Buffalo heavily leaned on the run as it threw the ball just 19 times as opposed to its 26 rushes. More of that could be expected this week; however, if there is a strength of the current iteration of the Dolphins, it’s their ability to slow down the run. Much of this is caused by injuries but it’s also heavily weighted by their two starting linebackers, Jordyn Brooks and David Long. Both Brooks and Long are run-stopping specialists who play downhill with strong intentions of meeting runners at or near the line of scrimmage. This makes misdirection in the run game all the more deadly for the Bills this week as getting the Dolphins’ linebackers into the mud and spilling a run out to the edge seems to be an obvious gameplan that could rely on more than just the Bills running backs.

That design would also include Buffalo’s quarterback, Josh Allen, who has just two games this season with 40-plus rushing yards. But this game provides the perfect opportunity for Allen to take off and pick up consistent yardage on the ground as Miami’s style of play should open plenty of avenues for one of the league’s best rushers at the position. Keeping Miami’s linebackers on the inside and allowing Allen to escape to the edge means forcing players like Jalen Ramsey and Jordan Poyer to make tackles in space, something each has struggled with this season. Expect Buffalo to try to facilitate this by leveraging not only Cook, but also Ray Davis’ abilities on interior rushes to ultimately expose the outside. Do so and give Allen the ability to check out of a pass and Buffalo could literally run away with this one quickly.

ADVANTAGE: Bills 👏👏

Heading into this season, the national perspective on the Bills was that it would be impossible to overcome the collective loss of Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer, and Tre White. Through eight games they have not only overcome the loss of those players, but they have excelled without them. Credit can be given to Sean McDermott’s system but plenty of credit is also owed to players on the field. Christian Benford and Rasul Douglas remain one of the most under-the-radar corner duos in the NFL, but also possibly one of the league’s best. Their safety pair of Taylor Rapp and Damar Hamlin have also played well above expectations, mitigating deep passes and allowing the defensive backs in front of them to make plays. Lastly, Taron Johnson remains one of the, if not the, best nickel corners in the NFL with his presence on the field having tangible impacts each and every week. Not many teams can lose three All-Pro defensive backs and not miss a beat, but the Bills aren’t one of those teams.

But this week the challenge for that secondary will be very real and, despite historical evidence to the contrary, the Dolphins offense with Tua Tagovailoa at the helm is a dangerous one. In the four games Tagovailoa missed this season, the Dolphins averaged 10 points per game but with him have averaged 19. He is officially the catalyst that allows Mike McDaniel’s scheme to work and gets Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle involved in the offense. This week, expect more of that with passes to running backs being a key factor in the Dolphins offense, as all of De’Von Achane, Raheem Mostert, and Jaylen Wright are more than capable pass catchers and expose a weakness of the Bills defense. Buffalo has a counter, though, the well-documented “take away the first read,” which is something Sean McDermott’s defense has done exceptionally well against the Dolphins. Look for defensive coordinator Bobby Babich to disguise coverages pre-snap and force Tagovailoa to question if his first read is open. If Buffalo is able to cover that, that’s when the issues begin for a Dolphins team that historically has struggled against this Bills defense.

No first read for Tagovailoa also means no quick release. This is where the Dolphins’ greatest offensive weakness comes into play as their offensive line is amongst the worst in the NFL. Terron Armstead is very, very good and essentially shuts down anyone rushing over the left side of the line, but after him, there are real issues for the Dolphins. Both Robert Jones (LG) and Liam Eichenberg (RG) are net negative players who can be exposed by the likes of Ed Oliver and DaQuan Jones. Between them, Aaron Brewer (C) also presents as a question mark as an undersized center who also has the occasional struggle with snapping the ball. Lastly is Austin Jackson (RT), a high-potential player that never came close to his ceiling and has the most difficult matchup for the week for Miami as he is set to go toe to toe with ascending star, Greg Rousseau. Behind this offensive line, getting rid of the ball quickly is paramount and if that can’t consistently happen, Tagovailoa and the Dolphins offense is set to struggle.

ADVANTAGE: Bills 👏👏

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The well-documented greatest weakness of this Bills team is their inability to stop the run. On the season they are giving up 4.8 yards per attempt, which is in the bottom quarter of the league. Opposing rushers have consistently found space while Buffalo’s injuries at linebacker have diminished the ability of the Bills to stop opposing rushers prior to the line to gain. Still, oddly enough, they have their moments of levity, including Week 8 when they held the Seattle Seahawks to just 32 rushing yards while starting two backup linebackers. It’s hard to put a finger on why the issues in this aspect come and go almost at random, but much of that relies on the play of their interior defensive line. Ed Oliver, DaQuan Jones, and Austin Johnson all are quality players who have been inconsistent on the season. That inconsistency worked in their favor against Seattle, however, as that trio dominated, which provides some level of hope that Buffalo has an in-house answer to stopping the run.

And stopping the run will be a must against the Dolphins, as their explosive offense might be at its best when the ball is on the ground. De’Von Achane, Raheem Mostert, and Jaylen Wright are all home-run hitters who excel in the misdirection of the Dolphins’ offense. In Miami’s first matchup with the Bills this season, they were without Mostert, meaning the workload shifted heavily to Achane, who accounted for 22 rushes and 96 yards while Wright contributed five rushes for four yards. The addition of Mostert this week means the ability to keep legs fresh in Miami’s backfield increases significantly, something of major concern for the Bills. Buffalo is going to need a big game from Dorian Williams and hope the same from Baylon Spector or possibly Terrel Bernard, if he returns from injury this week. One big run from this trio is something Buffalo can survive but multiple big ones could quickly swing the tide of this game.

There are also other avenues to success for Miami’s rushing offense, which happens to include their quarterback. In his first game back from injury, Tagovailoa picked up a big 13-yard gain against the Cardinals, suggesting he is playing without fear of yet another concussion. Expect him to keep his eyes forward and scramble for first downs this week, if necessary, as doing so would help to mitigate the Bills’ impending pass rush. Further, Miami is set to pull out all the stops in this “must-win” game which means Buffalo must be wary of trick plays and/or handoffs to non-conventional players. This includes sweeps to Tyreek Hill and/or Jaylen Waddle as Miami attempts to get the ball into their playmaker’s hands in whatever way possible. Miami can win this game, but to do so must dominate on the ground; they have the players to do that.

ADVANTAGE: Dolphins 👏👏👏

Tyler Bass has a success rate of 100% on his last 12 kicks. Granted, each of those 12 kicks has come from 32 yards and in. It’s still a step in the right direction, but until Bass consistently connects from further, he will remain a liability. In the other kicking role, Sam Martin has been fantastic for Buffalo with an impressive 41.9% Inside the 20 rate and a Net Punt north of 40. Last for the Bills special teams is Brandon Codrington, who has been phenomenal for the Bills on both punt and kick return, while Ray Davis has also begun to return a few kicks for Buffalo.

For Miami, Jason Sanders should be treated in a similar fashion to Tyler Bass. In his case, he is 13/13 on kicks inside of 40 yards but 6/10 on kicks from 40+. That last couple of seasons have seen a massive drop in Sanders’ deep kick rate, but the one-time first-team All-Pro (2020) clearly has the talent to kick his way out of it. Meanwhile, Jake Bailey, who was also a first-team All-Pro in 2020, has been great this season and in all actuality better than Sam Martin. His 46.2% Inside the 20 rate has been a massive help to a Dolphins team that has had to rely on him to flip the field more than anyone would have expected. As for the Dolphins’ return game, it is currently in a bit of flux with Braxton Berrios’ season-ending ACL tear. That means you could see players like Dee Eskridge or Malik Washington handle return duties, and potentially even more concerning, De’Von Achane or Tyreek Hill could get even more touches if used in the return game.

ADVANTAGE: Dolphins 👏

Related: Bills’ Khalil Shakir reveals how he became Josh Allen’s preferred target

Miami’s back is against the wall and its season is on the line in a make-or-definitely-break kind of game. The Dolphins need their offense to show up in a big way here, and Tua Tagovailoa provides them the spark to do just that. If the quarterback can get into a rhythm early and get the ball to players like Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, it could spell a big day for the offense. Add to that Miami’s abilities as a running offense, and despite how good Buffalo’s defense has been, the mismatches Miami can create could be a problem.

On the other side of the ball, it is all about turnovers for the Dolphins. They don’t need one, they need multiple this week and now that Josh Allen has thrown his first interception of the season, it’s possible the floodgates could open. Do that and find a way to slow down the Bills’ abilities on the ground, and a defense that does have some stars may just find a way to steal a big game in Buffalo for the Dolphins.

Miami almost never beats Buffalo and Josh Allen almost always dominates Miami. This is one of those games that feels trappy-esque just because of the desperation that is exuding from the Dolphins, but Allen and the Bills have felt that desperation from them before, and in all those games have come out victorious. Allen could be in line for a massive game this week as there are mismatches galore through the air for Buffalo, due in large part to injuries for Miami. Meanwhile, the ground game is there to be had due to injuries in the trenches, meaning Buffalo has a clear path to complementary football, and therefore a clear path to victory.

On the defensive front, the threat of Tagovailoa and the Dolphins’ offense is very real, but it’s a threat the Bills have time and time again had an answer for. Bobby Babich and Sean McDermott are going to take away Tagovailoa’s first read in whatever way they can while simultaneously sending extra blitzers to rattle Miami’s quarterback and help handle the rushing attack of the Dolphins. It’s one of those games where the coaching advantage is largely in Buffalo’s favor, and in a spot where Miami needs every advantage it can get, is a major concern.

Desperation can breed excellence, but in this game, desperation more likely will result in disaster. Miami’s back is against the wall and the team appears to be crumbling from the inside out, and now it has to go to Buffalo and play a team that has its number physically and mentally? Yeah, this seems like a no-brainer; Buffalo wins big by multiple scores, all but ending the Dolphins’ season and in the process taking yet another step towards a fifth-consecutive AFC East title.

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