Upsets have been the norm this week in Doha, where Andrey Rublev is the highest-seeded player remaining at No. 5. Rublev will face Felix Auger-Aliassime, while Jiri Lehecka is coming off a win over Carlos Alcaraz and will meet Jack Draper.

Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. (5) Andrey Rublev 

Rublev and Auger-Aliassime will be squaring off for the seventh time in their careers when they battle on Friday for a spot in the final of the Qatar ExxonMobil Open. The head-to-head series stands at 5-1 in favor of Rublev, who prevailed twice in 2024–both times 7-5 in the third set (first in Rotterdam and again in the final of the Madrid Masters).

What began as a difficult week for Auger-Aliassime has turned into a walk in the park. Since outlasting Quentin Halys in a third-set tiebreaker, the 23rd-ranked Canadian has gotten a walkover from Hamad Medjedovic and a retirement from Daniil Medvedev following their first set on Thursday (Auger-Aliassime won it 6-3). Previously struggling, Rublev has been impressive so far in Doha. The 10th-ranked Russian erased Alexander Bublik and Nuno Borges in straight sets before beating a red-hot Alex de Minaur 6-1, 3-6, 7-6(8) in the quarters. A slight edge goes to Rublev, who is now 14-5 lifetime at this event with one title (2020). But don’t be fooled by the head-to-head history; all of their matchups have been incredibly competitive. In fact, their most lopsided scoreline is 7-5, 7-6(4).

Pick: Rublev in 3

Jiri Lehecka vs. (8) Jack Draper

Lehecka was already in incredible form this season, and then he reached even greater heights by upsetting Carlos Alcaraz 6-3, 3-6, 6-4 on Thursday. That result was preceded by straight-set defeats of Grigor Dimitrov and Fabian Marozsan, giving the 25th-ranked Czech a 13-2 record for his 2025 campaign–including a title in Brisbane.

Up next for Lehecka is a third showdown against Draper. They split a pair of meetings in 2024, with Lehecka triumphing 4-6, 6-4, 6-3 in the Adelaide final before Draper got the job done 7-5, 6-2 on the indoor hard courts of Paris. The 16th-ranked Brit is also playing awesome tennis right now, sporting a 6-1 record for the year that features Doha wins over Alexei Popyrin, Christopher O’Connell, and Matteo Berrettini. Draper was the much better the whole way against Berrettini, needing three sets only because he went 0-for-6 on break points in the first set. Like the lefty, Lehecka has dealt with plenty of injuries during his career and he did not look to be in complete physical comfort following his victory over Alcaraz. Draper has a good chance to win this match–and the entire tournament.

Pick: Draper in 3