Doha picks: Medvedev vs. Auger-Aliassime, De Minaur vs. Rublev

Daniil Medvedev and Andrey Rublev are hoping to round into form at the ATP 500 in Doha, where they have reached the quarterfinals. Medvedev meets Felix Auger-Aliassime on Thursday, while Rublev faces Alex de Minaur.

Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. (4) Daniil Medvedev

Medvedev and Auger-Aliassime will be squaring off for the ninth time in their careers when they clash in the Qatar ExxonMobil Open quarterfinals on Thursday. The head-to-head series is being dominated 7-1 by Medvedev, who is 7-0 on hard courts (6-0 outdoors). Unsurprisingly, Auger-Aliassime took advantage of a clay-court surface to win their most recent meeting at the 2024 Paris Olympics (6-3, 7-6(5) in the round of 16).

Medvedev will have to do a lot more than beat Karen Khachanov and Zizou Bergs to prove that his slump is over, but early returns in Doha are very encouraging. Khachanov was the defending champion and an in-form Bergs managed only three games on Wednesday. Auger-Aliassime scraped past Quentin Halys in a third-set tiebreaker before getting a walkover from Hamad Medjedovic. The 23rd-ranked Canadian is playing well, but he would be more of a threat to Medvedev either indoors or on clay.

Pick: Medvedev in 3

(5) Andrey Rublev vs. (2) Alex de Minaur

Like his fellow Russian, Rublev is looking to pick up momentum on the heels of a slow start in 2025. The 10th-ranked Russian was a modest 4-4 this season heading into Doha but has picked up straight-set defeats of Alexander Bublik and Nuno Borges. Rublev is now 13-5 all time at this tournament with one title (2020).

Unfortunately for the fifth seed, De Minaur presents a much worse matchup. Bublik is hopelessly out of form and Borges is a counter-puncher who lets Rublev do what he wants to do–which is dictate. De Minaur is also a counter-puncher, of course, but he plays much closer the baseline than Borges and can take time away from Rublev. That is part of the reason why the eighth-ranked Australian leads the head-to-head series 4-3. It’s also worth noting that a scorching-hot De Minaur is 14-2 for his 2025 campaign following routine wins in Doha over Roman Safiullin and Botic van de Zandschulp. The second seed is simply the better, more consistent player right now and should be in line for more success against Rublev.

Pick: De Minaur in 3