For the gambling degenerates, here are our Divisional Round NFL picks. To note, the team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I’ll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.

Texans at Chiefs (-8.5): Whenever the Chiefs have gotten a first round bye during the Patrick Mahomes era, they always seem to get a super easy first playoff opponent in the Divisional Round:

• 2018 Colts (10-6, +89 point differential)
• 2019 Texans (10-6, -9 point differential)
• 2020: Browns (11-5, -11 point differential)
• 2022: Jaguars (9-8, +54 point differential)
• 2024: Texans (10-7, even point differential)

I mean, that’s part of the advantage of getting a first round bye, so it’s deserved, but man have they had easy paths to AFC Championship Games… again, as a result of having successful regular seasons.

Anyway, give me Andy Reid coming off of a bye against this bad Texans offense. The Chiefs will be playing in their 7th straight AFC Championship Game next weekend after they take care of business on Saturday.

Commanders at Lions (-9.5): The Lions are the better team, they have sort a “team of destiny” vibe going for them this season, and they’re going to be playing in front of an insanely loud crowd on Saturday night. I’m picking them to win, of course. 

But what in the world is this 9.5-point spread? That is way too high. The Lions have won by double-digit points in 8 of their 17 games this season, which is impressive, but still fewer than half of their games. Meanwhile, the Commanders only lost one game by double-digit points this season, and that was way back in Week 1.

This is going to be a competitive game. The Commanders are going to score on this depleted Lions defense. The Lions are just going to score more against this flawed Commanders defense. This matchup has the potential to be the most entertaining of the weekend, at least if you like games with a lot of points.

Rams at Eagles (-6): In their Week 12 blowout win over the Rams in L.A., the Eagles scored 37 points, racked up 481 yards, and didn’t turn the ball over. Defensively, the Eagles allowed two long Rams drives to start the game — one ending in a fumble and the other ending in a touchdown — but adjusted thereafter and held the Rams’ offense in check the rest of the game. 

The Rams finished 26th in regular season defensive DVOA, however, if you don’t include a Week 18 loss to the Seahawks during which they rested starters, the Rams have allowed single-digit points in each of their last four games. So, they have been better on that side of the ball lately, though they haven’t faced any offenses anywhere near as talented as the Eagles’.

Weather forecasts are showing that there could be 4-5 inches of snowfall during the afternoon on Sunday with wind gusts of up to 20 MPH. It could be a difficult day to throw the football. That’s advantage Eagles, who have the clearly superior rushing attack. As we showed in our Friday mailbag, here are the Eagles’ and Rams’ rushing yard differentials (regular season + playoffs):

Yes, the Rams are playing better of late, but there’s no need to overthink this one. The Eagles are more talented, they wrecked this team a couple months ago, and the weather favors their style of play.

Ravens (-1.5) at Bills: This is the best game of the weekend, and the NFL saved it for last on the docket. I’ve been of the opinion for the entirety of the season that the Bills are extraordinarily underrated, and yet again, this 1.5-point spread reflects that. The Ravens have more star power, but the Bills have the better team and they’re 8-0 at home this season.