Last week, I gave the Grade 2 Risen Star at Fair Grounds a
quick once-over and sounded the alarm on the favorite, East Avenue. This time,
the Rebel Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn takes center stage as one of just three graded
stakes in the U.S. this weekend. 

Although there’s no glaring fade like last week, one horse is
shaping up to be an obvious underlay. Meanwhile, another in the field is just
as good, if not better, and will be sitting at a far juicier price at the
windows.

Here’s how the 3-year-old male rankings stack up heading
into the Rebel. This race has firepower. Four of my top 15 are in
the gate, doubling the count from last week’s Risen Star, which featured only two. The road to the Kentucky Derby is heating up, and the Rebel will be
the next big test to sort the contenders from the pretenders.

3-year-old males

1. Citizen Bull. Dominant once again, this time in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3) at Santa Anita. The reigning Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and 2-year-old champ will stay in California for his next start, likely in the San Felipe (G2) in early March or the Santa Anita Derby (G1) in April.

2. Journalism. This son of Curlin looked very good defeating a solid field last out in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2). He was 2-for-3 last season. Will make his 2025 debut in the San Felipe (G2) in March at Santa Anita.

3. Barnes. Already has won a graded stakes this season, last out in the San Vicente (G2) at Santa Anita. This highly regarded son of Into Mischief could run next in the San Felipe, where he would face Journalism.

4. Chancer McPatrick. Off the board in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but he had a very good 2-year-old season. Those first three starts were impressive, with two Grade 1 wins that made him a standout early on. Could kick off his season in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) on March 8, with the Blue Grass (G1) in April as the next target.

5. Burnham Square. Was impressive in the Holy Bull (G3) at Gulfstream for his second win in a row, but it wasn’t impressive speed-figure-wise. I like this horse, but Kentucky Derby distance concerns me.

Next 10: Sovereignty, Captain Cool, Disco Time, Speed King, Coal Battle, Magnitude, Sandman, Tiztastic, Rodriguez, Rated by Merit

When sizing up the Rebel field, the clear underlay is
Sandman. Ranked no. 12, the Southwest (G3) runner-up has plenty of backers, largely because many
believe his poor break from the gate cost him the race. On the surface, the hype makes
sense. He’s a son of Tapit with a solid closing kick. But how many times have we
seen a horse with a rough trip get hammered at the windows next time out, only
to disappoint? Sandman is a closer by nature. In all three of his races before
the Southwest, he was in the back half of the field, twice running from last or
next to last.

This feels like a textbook case of horse-racing overreaction, not
to be confused with horse racing hyperbole, which is an art form all on its
own.

Then there’s Tiztastic, a son of Tiz the Law, trained by Steve Asmussen, who just pulled off an upset in the Risen Star with Magnitude. Tiztastic, ranked no. 13, has split two meetings with Sandman. And like his rival, he had his share of trouble in the Southwest, steadying on the far turn before finishing strongly right behind him. But while Sandman likely will take plenty of money in the Rebel, Tiztastic could be lurking at a juicy 10-1 or more. With Magnitude sidelined, maybe it’s Tiztastic’s turn to put Asmussen back in the Kentucky Derby conversation.

The Southwest winner, Speed King, is flying under the radar, which is odd, considering he’s done little wrong with two wins in three starts. But breaking from post 11 with plenty of speed inside, including the quick-footed Innovator, won’t make things easy for him.

Coal Battle, no. 10 in the rankings, comes from modest connections. Trainer Lonnie Briley, at 72, has sent only two horses to graded stakes, and Coal Battle will be his third. But Coal Battle has quietly built an unbeaten record on dirt and already owns a win over Speed King in the Springboard Mile. I like Coal Battle here too.

Then there’s the California duo, Madakat Road and Bullard, both of whom are well-regarded but unranked. A strong showing? Plausible. A win by either would be somewhat of a surprise, but their performance will serve as a measuring stick for Citizen Bull, who easily handled both last time out.

Older dirt males

1. White Abarrio. Not sure what led to his resurgence in this division, but I’ll leave those questions for another day. After a year away from the throne, he’s back on top with a vengeance after his dominant Pegasus World Cup (G1) victory. Will skip Saudi Arabia and stay in the U.S. to race for the remainder of the season, with the Ghostzapper (G3) in March at Gulfstream his next start followed by the Met Mile (G1) in June.

2. Sierra Leone. He drops to this spot because running matters, and White Abarrio has shown up and delivered. Sierra Leone brought his A game in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, putting Fierceness and Forever Young away with authority. Spare me the “lucky trip” talk. The numbers back up his win. He covered extra ground while the early speed held and still proved best. He earned that Eclipse, but now he will miss what was an expected run in the Saudi Cup (G1). That might may be a blessing in disguise. Look for him to return in the Oaklawn Handicap (G2) in April and then move on to the Stephen Foster (G1) at Churchill in June.

3. Fierceness. He ran a strong second in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, backing up two earlier Grade 1 wins that sparked Eclipse debate with Sierra Leone. Likely sidelined until spring, with no guarantee he returns to the track. In fact, I would be surprised if he did.

4. Locked. Kicked off his season with a distant runner-up finish to White Abarrio in the Pegasus. Missed most of his 3-year-old season after being one of the top 2-year-olds of 2023 when he won the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) and was third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile to Fierceness. Will start next in the Santa Anita Handicap (G1) next month.

5. Hit Show. Started his season right with a win last out in the Louisiana Stakes (G3). This guy has won graded stakes in four of his last five starts.

Next five: Subsanador, Full Serrano, Highland Falls, Rattle N Roll, Hall of Fame

Older dirt females

1. Thorpedo Anna. With Idiomatic and Awesome Result out of the Breeders’ Cup Distaff, she cruised to victory over a weak field. Although her 2024 season was impressive, she faced a historically weak 3-year-old filly division. She deservedly won horse of the year, but the hyperbole is somewhat over the top. She starts this season as an easy choice to lead this division and should run next in the Azeri (G2) at Oaklawn on March 8.

2. Raging Sea. Runner-up in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff, she delivered as expected. Her 2024 highlight was upsetting Idiomatic in the Personal Ensign (G1). She starts this season far back of the leader and is now back on the work tab.

3. Power Squeeze. She didn’t embarrass herself against the males in the Pegasus World Cup, but she clearly didn’t belong as she finished eighth, beaten by 11 lengths. She won three graded stakes in 2024 and ended her season with a runner-up finish in the Rampart Stakes at Gulfstream.

4. Candied. She was third in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff and the Spinster (G1) after Grade 1 runner-up finishes to Thorpedo Anna in the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) and Alabama (G1). She’s consistently close, but her only win from six starts last season came in the Lady’s Secret at Monmouth.

5. Gun Song. She narrowly lost to Tarifa in the Mother Goose (G2) and almost upset the Cotillion (G1) after a strong rally before that. I expect her to contend in this division this season. Back working, she could make her seasonal debut at Keeneland.

Next five: Sugar Fish, Randomized, Cavalieri, Tarifa, Soul of an Angel, Kopion

3-year-old fillies

1. Good Cheer. Faced only three others in her season debut in the recent Rachel Alexandra (G2) at Fair Grounds but won as expected by over six lengths. Will make her next start in the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) or Keeneland’s Ashland Stakes (G1)

2. Immersive. Aside from Thorpedo Anna’s Distaff, no one on the dirt impressed more than this gal at the Breeders’ Cup. Like Thorpedo, she was a lock for the Eclipse. With a 4-for-4 record and three Grade 1s under her belt, she’s off to great start to her career. On the shelf now for a while and will drop from this spot soon.

3. Muhimma. Was 3-for-3 as a 2-year-old, winning the Demoiselle Stakes (G2). Should be a major player in this division and will start this weekend in the Honeybee (G2) at Oaklawn.

4. Tenma. She beat only two others last out in a six-length win in the Las Virgenes (G3) and prior to that she scored a win in the Starlet (G2) in her final start at age 2. 

5. Non Compliant. Unbeaten in two starts, she made easy work of her first graded-stakes test in the Oak Leaf (G2) at Santa Anita, cruising past five rivals for the win. As a daughter of Tiz the Law, she already has pedigree on her side. Missed the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies.

Next five: Scottish Lassie, Quickick, Quietside, La Cara, Eclatant.

Turf males

1. Spirit of St Louis. Solid win in the Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1), where he won his first graded stakes. Now a winner of 10 of his 14 starts, this guy should be a major player in this division for the remainder of 2025.

2. Johannes. Won another race last out, this time the San Gabriel (G2). He finished 2024 with five graded-stakes wins from six starts. His only loss was a second in the Breeders’ Cup Mile behind More Than Looks. Now sidelined with an injury.

3. Carl Spackler. He finished sixth in the Breeders’ Cup Mile, just over two lengths back, but had a solid season last year with two Grade 1 wins.

4. Far Bridge. He finished ninth in the Breeders’ Cup Turf, beaten by five lengths, but had a strong two-race win streak prior, scoring in the Joe Hirsch (G1) and Sword Dancer (G1). Back in 2025.

5. Integration. Very good runner-up finish to the top one in the Pegasus Turf, where he came up a neck short.

Next five: Dashman, Nation’s Pride, Gold Phoenix, Motorious, Mi Hermano Ramon

Turf females

1. She Feels Pretty. Starts the season on top here after capping off her 3-year-old season with back-to-back Grade 1 wins in the Queen Elizabeth at Keeneland and the American Oaks at Santa Anita.

2. Be Your Best. Captured the Pegasus Filly & Mare Turf (G2) for her third straight graded-stakes victory, proving she’s in the best form of her 18-race career. With three of her five career wins coming in her last three starts, she’s on a roll now.

3. Sacred Wish. Turned in a strong runner-up effort in the Pegasus Filly & Mare Turf, falling a neck short to Be Your Best. Last season’s Matriarch (G1) winner has been a consistent player, hitting the board in three other graded stakes in 2024.

4. Raqiya. Fifth in the Pegasus Filly & Mare Turf, she won the Goldikova (G3) prior to that in her first start in this country.

5. AG Bullet. Third last out in the Matriarch, and before that she was third in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint.

Next four: Kathynmarissa, Star of Mystery, Prerequisite, Ocean Club

Male sprinters

1. Straight No Chaser. Won the Breeders’ Cup Sprint in his third start of 2024. His only other win was the Santa Anita Sprint Championship (G2), with an off-the-board finish in the Runhappy (G3). He starts the season here on top and will run this weekend in the Riyadh Dirt Sprint (G2) in Saudi Arabia.

2. Mullikin. Finished second in the Cigar Mile (G2) behind Locked after a third in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. He earned his first Grade 1 win in the Forego and first graded win in the Nerud (G2). The 4-year-old colt is 5-for-10 in his career and will be back in 2025.

3. The Chosen Vron. Despite a close second in the Pat O’Brien (G2), his first loss in six starts last season, his record remains impressive, 19 wins from 25 starts, 18 in stakes. Missed the Breeders’ Cup but went 5-for-6 last year, including the Bing Crosby (G1). Will be back in 2025.

4. Raging Torrent. Nice winner of the Malibu last out for his first Grade 1 win. Was 4-for-7 last season. Connections are targeting the Godolphin Mile (G2) in early April.

5. Bentornato. Scratched from the Malibu, he previously finished runner-up in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint and won the Gallant Bob (G2) last September.

Next five: Nakatomi, Mufasa, Federal Judge, Book’em Danno, Tejano Twist

Female sprinters

1. Kopion. Back-to-back dominant wins in the La Brea (G1) and Santa Monica, both with speed figures no one in this division was able to muster last year. She’s the one to beat in this division.

2. Soul of an Angel. Her connections have chosen wisely to skip Saudi Arabia and keep this gal sprinting. This is welcome news. She will run next in the Madison (G1) at Keeneland in April.

3. Mystic Lake. Won the Inside Information (G2) in her seasonal debut and last year won five sprint stakes.

4. Hope Road. Second best to the top one in the Santa Monica last out, won two stakes last season.

5. Spirit Wind. Was very good last season winning three stakes, the highlight being the Honorable Miss (G2) at Saratoga.

Next five: Richi, Scylla, Pleasant, Emery, Jody’s Pride