This week, rather than previewing an upcoming race or
spotlighting a contender in action, I’m diving into one of the toughest ranking
dilemmas I’ve faced in recent memory.

Should I elevate Journalism, last weekend’s dazzling winner of the Grade 2 San Felipe, straight to the top of my 3-year-old male
rankings? Or does Citizen Bull, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner, reigning Eclipse champion and dominant victor in his seasonal debut, retain the No. 1 spot? 

Before diving into my thought process, here’s my answer, my
updated 3-year-old male rankings. Just a reminder that these aren’t Kentucky Derby
rankings. I don’t rank horses based on their chances for one race in the middle
of the season. Instead, I take the long view. These rankings are shaped with the
Eclipse Awards in mind, reflecting where my vote would go if the season ended
today.

3-year-old males

1. Citizen Bull. Citizen Bull picked up right where he left off, steamrolling the Robert B. Lewis (G3) in his first start at three. The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner and 2-year-old champ holds firm at the top, despite the typical recency bias that often follows the previous week’s results. It’s easy to get caught up in the moment, but until Citizen Bull loses or takes an unexpected break, this spot is his. His next start likely will come in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) or the Arkansas Derby (G1), where he would have to continue to prove why he deserves to hold onto this top spot.

2. Journalism. His seasonal debut in the San Felipe was so impressive that I briefly considered vaulting him to the top spot. Now 3-for-4 in his career, he’s on a rapid ascent and likely will make his next start in the Santa Anita Derby in April.

3. Barnes. Turned in a strong effort in the San Felipe but ran into a better horse in Journalism. Still, he was more than nine lengths clear of third-place finisher Rodriguez, proving his class. Next stop likely will be the Arkansas Derby.

4. Sovereignty. The Fountain of Youth (G2) was his second graded stakes win in a row. Feel like we are still scratching the surface with this guy.

5. Coal Battle. This guys just keeps winning, this time in the Rebel (G2) at Oaklawn. He is unbeaten in five dirt-track starts, but obviously the 10 panels of the Kentucky Derby will be a question given his pedigree. Will start next in the Arkansas Derby.

Next 7: Burnham Square, Chancer McPatrick, Disco Time, Magnitude,  River Thames, Sandman, Flood Zone

Heading into last weekend, I already was high on
Journalism, so much so that I had him ranked no. 2, higher than you’d find him
on any other major 3-year-old male rankings. My immediate reaction after his
dominant San Felipe win? Maybe he belongs at the top.

But I’ve learned not to make
knee-jerk reactions. I always take 24 to 48 hours after a big race to let the
dust settle before making a call. The post-race hype machine in horse racing is
as predictable as it is loud, and I’ve never been one to get caught up in the
noise. So after weighing all the merits, it was a rather easy decision to leave
Citizen Bull at the top. 

The logic here is straightforward, and if you’ve been
following along over the months and years, it won’t surprise you. Citizen Bull
has owned the top spot since his dominant Breeders’ Cup Juvenile victory,
locked up the Eclipse as last year’s best 2-year-old and already posted an
effortless win this season in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes over the same Santa Anita
track.

Around here, when a longstanding no. 1 horse runs and wins, he or she
doesn’t get demoted just because another below him fired off a flashy
performance. If Citizen Bull were sidelined for an extended stretch, that would
be a different conversation. But he’s not. He’s active, winning and still the
king until proven otherwise. 

Journalism’s future is undeniably bright. His win over
Barnes was sharp, and from a speed-figure standpoint, it’s the fastest two-turn
performance by a 3-year-old male so far in 2025. But if there’s one thing this
sport teaches us, it’s that hype is fleeting.

Just ask Burnham Square. A week
ago, he was the “it” horse after his Holy Bull (G3) win, but I wasn’t sold asdistance
questions loomed. Sure enough, in the Fountain of Youth, he flamed out with an
off-the-board finish. The lesson? Today’s rising star can be tomorrow’s
afterthought. Journalism certainly looks like he can buck that trend. 

Some might be down on Barnes after his loss, but I’m not one
of them. He ran his race, and Journalism simply went and got him. It’s not like
Barnes was stopping in the stretch as he finished over nine lengths clear of Rodriguez who was third. For context, he still posted the
second-fastest two-turn effort by a 3-year-old male this year. So, to his
supporters, don’t abandon ship. He’ll be a major player in his next start,
whether it’s the Santa Anita Derby or Arkansas Derby. 

Climbing to No. 4 this week is another colt I’ve been high
on, Sovereignty. Like Journalism, he made his 3-year-old debut last weekend and
didn’t disappoint, running down River Thames in the Fountain of Youth (G2).
Although his win wasn’t as flashy on the speed-figure scale, he was relentless in
the stretch when reeling in River Thames. To be fair, River Thames is not
Barnes. I believe River Thames is distance-challenged and was backing up in
the Fountain of Youth stretch. River Thames wasn’t ranked last week but made
the cut this week, barely, at no. 10.

This weekend, I’m particularly intrigued by the return of no. 7-ranked Chancer McPatrick. The dual Grade 1 winner from last year makes his seasonal debut in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3), and I’m eager to see how he stacks up.

Older dirt males

1. White Abarrio. After a year away from the throne, he’s back on top with a vengeance after his dominant victory in the Pegasus World Cup (G1). Will skip Saudi Arabia and stay in the U.S. to race for the remainder of the season, with the Ghostzapper (G3) on March 29 at Gulfstream his next start.

2. Locked. Delivered a powerhouse performance in the Santa Anita Handicap (G1), earning his first Grade 1 victory since his juvenile season. Before that, he kicked off the year with a distant runner-up finish to White Abarrio in the Pegasus, but his Big ‘Cap romp showed that maybe he can be a major player in this division.

3. Sierra Leone. He drops to this spot because running matters, and White Abarrio has shown up and delivered. Sierra Leone brought his A game in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, putting Fierceness and Forever Young away with authority. He earned that Eclipse, but now he will miss what was an expected run in the Saudi Cup (G1). That might be a blessing in disguise. Look for him to return in the Oaklawn Handicap (G2) in April and then move on to the Stephen Foster (G1) at Churchill in June.

4. Fierceness. He ran a strong second in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, backing up two earlier Grade 1 wins that sparked Eclipse debate with Sierra Leone. Likely sidelined until spring, with no guarantee he returns to the track. In fact, I would be surprised if he did.

5. Hit Show. No excuses for his third-place finish in the Big ‘Cap, where he was beaten by more than 12 lengths. He’s simply a notch below the top tier of this division right now.

Next five: Express Train, Subsanador, Full Serrano, Mindframe, Hall of Fame

Older dirt females

1. Thorpedo Anna. With Idiomatic and Awesome Result out of the Breeders’ Cup Distaff, she cruised to victory over a weak field in her last out. Although her 2024 season was impressive, she faced a historically weak 3-year-old filly division. She deservedly won horse of the year, but the hyperbole is somewhat over the top. She starts this season as an easy choice to lead this division and runs this weekend in the Azeri (G2) at Oaklawn. 

2. Raging Sea. Runner-up in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff, she delivered as expected. Her 2024 highlight was upsetting Idiomatic in the Personal Ensign (G1). She starts this season far back of the leader and is now back on the work tab.

3. Power Squeeze. She didn’t embarrass herself against the males in the Pegasus World Cup, but she clearly didn’t belong as she finished eighth, beaten by 11 lengths. She won three graded stakes in 2024 and ended her season with a runner-up finish in the Rampart Stakes at Gulfstream.

4. Candied. She was third in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff and the Spinster (G1) after Grade 1 runner-up finishes to Thorpedo Anna in the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) and Alabama (G1). She’s consistently close, but her only win from six starts last season came in the Lady’s Secret at Monmouth.

5. Gun Song. She narrowly lost to Tarifa in the Mother Goose (G2) and almost upset the Cotillion (G1) after a strong rally before that. I expect her to contend in this division this season. Back working, she could make her seasonal debut at Keeneland.

Next five: Sugar Fish, Randomized, Cavalieri, Tarifa, Soul of an Angel

3-year-old fillies

1. Good Cheer. Faced only three others in her season debut in the recent Rachel Alexandra (G2) at Fair Grounds but won as expected by more than six lengths. Will make her next start in the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) or Keeneland’s Ashland Stakes (G1)

2. Immersive. Aside from Thorpedo Anna’s Distaff, no one on the dirt impressed more than this gal at the Breeders’ Cup. Like Thorpedo, she was a lock for the Eclipse. With a 4-for-4 record and three Grade 1s under her belt, she’s off to great start to her career. On the shelf for a while and will drop from this spot soon.

3. Quietside. This gal placed in two Grade 1 races last year at age 2 and was sort of forgotten at the windows in the Honeybee (G3), scoring the win at 10-1 odds. Has yet to finish off the board in six starts.

4. Tenma. She beat only two others last out in a six-length win in the Las Virgenes (G3), and before that she scored a win in the Starlet (G2) in her final start at age 2.

5. Non Compliant. Unbeaten in two starts, she made easy work of her first graded-stakes test in the Oak Leaf (G2) at Santa Anita, cruising past five rivals for the win. As a daughter of Tiz the Law, she already has pedigree on her side. Missed the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies.

Next five: Muhimma, Scottish Lassie, Quickick, Eclatant, La Cara

Turf males

1. Spirit of St Louis. Solid win in the Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1), where he won his first graded stakes. Now a winner of 10 of his 14 starts, this guy should be a major player in this division for the remainder of 2025.

2. Johannes. Kept his hot streak going with a win in the San Gabriel (G2) last December, capping off a stellar 2024 campaign with five graded-stakes victories from six starts. His only loss came as a runner-up to More Than Looks in the Breeders’ Cup Mile. Unfortunately, he’s sidelined with an injury and will drop from the rankings in the coming weeks.

3. Carl Spackler. He finished sixth in the Breeders’ Cup Mile, just over two lengths back, but had a solid season last year with two Grade 1 wins.

4. Far Bridge. He finished ninth in the Breeders’ Cup Turf, beaten by five lengths, but had a strong two-race win streak prior, scoring in the Joe Hirsch (G1) and Sword Dancer (G1). Back in 2025.

5. Integration. Very good runner-up finish to the top one in the Pegasus Turf, where he came up a neck short.

Next five: Nation’s Pride, Formidable Man, Dashman, Motorious, Mi Hermano Ramon

Turf females

1. She Feels Pretty. Starts the season on top here after capping off her 3-year-old season with back-to-back Grade 1 wins in the Queen Elizabeth at Keeneland and the American Oaks at Santa Anita. If she doesn’t run this month she drops out of these rankings.

2. Be Your Best. Captured the Pegasus Filly & Mare Turf (G2) for her third straight graded-stakes victory, proving she’s in the best form of her 18-race career. With three of her five career wins coming in her last three starts, she’s on a roll now.

3. Sacred Wish. Turned in a strong runner-up effort in the Pegasus Filly & Mare Turf, falling a neck short to Be Your Best. Last season’s Matriarch (G1) winner has been a consistent player, hitting the board in three other graded stakes in 2024.

4. Raqiya. Fifth in the Pegasus Filly & Mare Turf, she won the Goldikova (G3) prior to that in her first start in this country.

5. AG Bullet. Third last out in the Matriarch, and before that she was third in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint.

Next five: Kathynmarissa, Special Wan, Liguria, Beach Bomb, Nanda Dea

Male sprinters

1. Straight No Chaser. The reigning Breeders’ Cup Sprint champion kicked off 2025 in style, taking the Riyadh Dirt Sprint (G2) in Saudi Arabia. Next stop: Dubai for the Golden Shaheen (G1) in April.

2. Mullikin. Finished second in the Cigar Mile (G2) behind Locked after a third in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. He earned his first Grade 1 win in the Forego and first graded win in the Nerud (G2). The 4-year-old colt is 5-for-10 in his career and will be back in 2025.

3. The Chosen Vron. Despite a close second in the Pat O’Brien (G2), his first loss in six starts last season, his record remains impressive, 19 wins from 25 starts, 18 in stakes. Missed the Breeders’ Cup but went 5-for-6 last year, including the Bing Crosby (G1). Will be back in 2025.

4. Raging Torrent. Scored a strong victory in the Malibu last time out, marking his first Grade 1 win. Finished 4-for-7 last season, and his connections are eyeing the Godolphin Mile (G2) in early April

5. Bentornato. Scratched from the Malibu last December, he previously finished runner-up in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint and won the Gallant Bob (G2) last September. On the sidelines now with an injury.

Next five: Nakatomi, Mufasa, Federal Judge, Book’em Danno, Tejano Twist

Female sprinters

1. Kopion. Back-to-back dominant wins in the La Brea (G1) and Santa Monica (G2), both with speed figures no one in this division was able to muster last year. She’s the one to beat in this division. Although she’ll miss the anticipated Beholder Mile (G1), it might turn out to be a blessing in disguise. Her connections are now keeping her focused on sprints, with the Madison (G1) at Keeneland in April as her next target.

2. Soul of an Angel. Her connections have chosen wisely to skip Saudi Arabia and keep this gal sprinting. This is welcome news. She will run next in the Madison (G1) at Keeneland in April, where she will face Kopion.

3. Mystic Lake. Won the Inside Information (G2) in her seasonal debut and last year won five sprint stakes.

4. Hope Road. Second best to the top one in the Santa Monica last out, won two stakes last season.

5. Spirit Wind. Was very good last season, winning three stakes, the highlight being the Honorable Miss (G2) at Saratoga.

Next five: Richi, Scylla, Pleasant, Emery, Jody’s Pride