It’s time to flip the page and scrub away the residue
of the last two underwhelming seasons in the older dirt male division. Let’s
face it, this division has been in freefall since Flightline obliterated the
field in the 2022 Breeders’ Cup Classic. 

The reasons for the slump? Take your pick. Premature
retirements of promising 3-year-olds, injuries and a general lack of depth
that has left fans longing for the glory days. 

But there’s a glimmer
of hope for 2025. The upcoming season promises the potential return of several standout
3-year-olds from this year, and we might be on the verge of a
renaissance. Of course, in
horse racing, fortunes can turn faster than a sprinter out of the starting
gate. 

Still, as of now, the older dirt male division shows
promise. Perhaps enough that it can reclaim some of its lost
prestige. 

Before diving into what this division might deliver or how it might disappoint next season, let’s take a look at this week’s updated
rankings.

Older dirt males

1. National Treasure. I reluctantly would give the Eclipse Award to this guy based on his record. With two major Grade 1 wins and a near miss in another, his résumé surpasses all other eligible horses, Breeders’ Cup or not. No one else makes sense.

2. Subsanador. I had high hopes for this guy earlier in the season, but like many South America imports, he took his sweet time getting up to speed. The Grade 1 California Crown winner finally was starting to show what he’s made of. He had taken clear steps forward and was a legitimate player in the division but was put on the shelf until next season because of injury.

3. Newgate. He’s been a solid performer in all five of his U.S. races this season. After taking the Santa Anita Handicap (G1) in March, when he defeated Highland Falls, he missed winning the California Crown by a head. Then in the Breeders’ Cup Classic he turned in a commendable effort to finish fourth. He proved he belongs among the top contenders in this division. Won’t run next year as he has been retired.

4. Highland Falls. He never posed a serious threat in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, finishing a dismal ninth and trailing by more than 14 lengths. Before that embarrassment, he did have a moment of glory, winning the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) impressively. Overall his season has been a mixed bag with three wins from seven starts, including a solid showing in the Blame (G3) at Churchill Downs in June. But a good season doesn’t erase that lackluster Classic performance.

5. Hit Show. Crossed the wire third in the Clark (G2) at Churchill, a performance that felt underwhelming for a horse riding a streak of four wins in five starts, including a hat trick of graded-stakes victories.

Next five: Señor Buscador, Full Serrano, Tapit Trice, Arthur’s Ride, Rattle N Roll

Older dirt females

1. Idiomatic. Really a downer when it was announced she would be retired and had to miss the Breeders’ Cup Distaff. In her last start she owned the Spinster (G1) again, making it back-to-back wins. I was more impressed with her in her two losses this season than in her wins, but she still had a rock solid year. She’s going to earn my Eclipse vote in this division, but Adare Manor was right on her heels.

2. Adare Manor. Despite retirement, she will remain in these rankings. In her last start, a Clement L. Hirsch (G1) win, she showed us heart and a new gear. On the far turn it looked like she was in trouble, but then she blew past a solid field to win decisively. She was 3-for-4 this season with two Grade 1 victories, more than anyone else in this division.

3. Raging Sea. As the runner-up in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff and the second choice at the betting window, she did exactly what was expected of her. Before the Distaff she barely edged out a win in the Beldame (G2), but her standout performance this season came when she pulled off an upset over Idiomatic in the Personal Ensign (G1).

4. Randomized. Engaged in an early battle with Idiomatic in the Personal Ensign but faded to finish fifth, more than 15 lengths behind. But she did win the Ogden Phipps (G1) by upsetting Idiomatic earlier this season.

5. Sweet Azteca. Stunningly was off the board at 1-9 odds in the four-horse Chillingworth Stakes (G3) at Santa Anita. Before that she had been dominant this season, winning four of her five starts. Didn’t run in the Breeders’ Cup.

Next five: Scylla, Honor D Lady, Shotgun Hottie, Flying Connection, Desert Dawn

3-year-old males

1. Sierra Leone. He finally seized his moment in style at the Breeders’ Cup, decisively winning the Classic against Fierceness and Forever Young. The claim that Sierra Leone got lucky thanks to a hot early pace is just wrong. Every speed metric confirmed he ran the best race. Sierra Leone covered extra ground, and the other early frontrunners held on for second, third and fourth. That’s running the best race. I don’t see any reason that shouldn’t win the Eclipse. Could run in the Pegasus World Cup Invitational (G1) next with the Saudi Cup (G1) on tap as well.

2. Fierceness. He put in a stellar performance in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, running close to the quick early pace before holding strong to finish a game runner-up to Sierra Leone. Many believe his two Grade 1 victories should be enough to clinch the Eclipse in this division, but I’m not ready to hand it over. The debate between these top two is far from over. Expect serious pondering in the weeks to come. Isn’t expected to return until the spring at the earliest.

3. Dornoch. Had no excuses in the Travers (G1) as he sat off the slow early fractions set by Batten Down. Still, he did win the Belmont Stakes and Haskell (G1). Out of the Eclipse race because of his premature retirement, he is in my top three and would be on my Eclipse ballot if the season ended today.

4. Forever Young. Surprisingly, Forever Young found himself near the blistering pace of the Breeders’ Cup Classic, far from his usual late-running style. Although he lacked his trademark late kick, he still finished third, beaten by less than three lengths. It’s clear he’s among the elite in this division. Pointing for the Saudi and Dubai races.

5. Seize the Grey. Never got to the lead in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, and he subsequently finished eighth, beaten by 7 1/2 lengths. The Preakness winner previously scored a big win in the Pennsylvania Derby (G1) and will finish the season with a record of 9: 4-0-1. Won’t run next year as he has been retired.

Next five: Mystik Dan, Stronghold, Domestic Product, Locked, Catching Freedom

3-year-old fillies

1. Thorpedo Anna. With Idiomatic and Awesome Result out of the Breeders’ Cup Distaff, she coasted to victory over the weakest field in the event’s 41 runnings. Although I applaud her impressive 2024 season, let’s keep some perspective here. She faced a historically weak 3-year-old fillies division, but she beat who was lined up against her. Now with the lack of a dominant horse in other divisions, she will win horse of the year. Sure, she might be the best we’ve seen in the last five years, since Monomoy Girl to be exact. But calling her an all-time great among 3-year-old fillies is just hype.

2. Power Squeeze. Could do no batter than seventh in the Cotillion (G1), beaten by nearly 10 lengths by Thorpedo Anna in September. Before that she was an impressive winner of the Alabama (G1), in which she narrowly defeated Candied by a head. She has won three graded stakes this season.

3. Candied. Ran a good third in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff, finishing as expected as she was the third betting choice. In the Spinster, she finished a solid third behind Idiomatic. That came on the heels of runner-up finishes in two straight Grade 1 races. She was second to Thorpedo Anna in the Coaching Club American Oaks and followed that with a runner-up in the Alabama. She also took home the Lady’s Secret at Monmouth before that. She has consistently knocked on the door

4. Sugar Fish. Fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff, she was beaten by a little over six lengths. Before that she scored a big win in the Zenyatta (G2), becoming the first in her division to defeat older rivals in a meaningful race. Earlier she scored an open-lengths win in the Summertime Oaks (G2).

5. Gun Song. Narrowly lost another one, this time in the Mother Goose (G2) last out to Tarifa. Before that she nearly pulled off a major upset in the Cotillion when she rallied after being passed by her rival to nearly come back and score the win. She has only one graded-stakes win this year but prepped for the Cotillion with a listed-stakes score and looks to be better now with age.

Next five: Tarifa, Ways and Means, Leslie’s Rose, Nothing Like You, Hope Road

Turf males

1. Johannes. Ran great in the Breeders’ Cup Mile, finishing ahead of everyone except More Than Looks. No other has done enough to unseat him from this spot, so as of now he will get my no. 1 vote for the Eclipse in this division. Before the Mile he scored in the City of Hope Mile (G2) at Santa Anita for his fourth graded-stakes win of the season.

2. Carl Spackler. He never really got on track in the Mile. Finishing sixth, beaten by a little over two lengths, he didn’t run badly at all, so he maintains this spot based on his résumé this season. Before the Breeders’ Cup he notched his second straight Grade 1 win in the Turf Mile at Keeneland.

3. Far Bridge. Never really got on track in the Breeders’ Cup Turf, finishing ninth but beaten by only five lengths. Before that he was on a two-race winning streak. After a slow start to his season, Far Bridge won the Joe Hirsch (G1) and Sword Dancer (G1).

4. More Than Looks. He won’t be ranked no. 1 here with one win in 2024. It was a big win, but he had only two other starts this season and was runner-up to Carl Spackler in both. Now retired, he falls short of my top three on the Eclipse ballot.

5. Cogburn. After going 3-for-3 this season, he dropped the ball in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint, finishing a lackluster fifth. Given that, he likely deserves an even bigger drop.

Next five: Measured Time, Master of the Seas, Gold Phoenix, Silver Knott, Nation’s Pride

Turf females

1. Moira. A fan-favorite win in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf finally gave her a Grade 1 win after six attempts. But now what? This division is a mess with no filly truly dominating all year. Does she deserve this Eclipse? I’m not sold yet. In the 45-year history of this award, only four have taken it with only one Grade 1 win.

2. Didia. Bounced back strongly from two recent letdowns to nearly steal the Breeders’ Cup Mile, finishing a close third, just a half-length off the winner. The Just a Game (G1) winner from Belmont Stakes weekend reclaimed her spot in the top five, where she has belonged for most of the season. Will run next in the Pegasus Filly & Mare Turf (G2) in January.

3. Gina Romantica. Ran well last out in the Matriarch (G1) at Del Mar, dropping a neck decision to Sacred Wish. Before that she was super impressive in the First Lady (G1) at Keeneland, defeating Chili Flag and Whitebeam for her second win in that race in as many years. Gina has made a habit of showing up at Keeneland, winning a Grade 1 there three years in a row. She is now retired.

4. War Like Goddess. Came up short again in a Breeders’ Cup race, this time finishing fifth behind Moira in the Filly & Mare Turf, beaten by a little over two lengths. Before that effort she ran very well in the Joe Hirsch against the males when runner-up to Far Bridge. She ran well in her previous four starts this season but managed to win only once. Had an outstanding career and is now retired.

5. Whitebeam. She couldn’t have picked a worse time to throw in a clunker, finishing ninth in the First Lady when the spotlight was on her. That performance knocked her out of the no. 1 spot. This summer she was on top of the world after winning the Diana (G1) against the deepest field of female turf horses we’ve seen this year. Before that she was runner-up in two graded stakes, so it’s not like she’s been off her game. But that First Lady flop? I didn’t see that coming.

Next five: Anisette, Sacred Wish, Chili Flag, Beauté Cachée, Beautiful Love.

Male sprinters

1. The Chosen Vron. Remains at the top despite his upset loss in the Pat O’Brien (G2), in which he finished a close runner-up to Raging Torrent. It was his first defeat in six starts this season. By today’s standards his record is remarkable with 19 wins from 25 starts and only two finishes off the board. Eighteen of those wins have come in stakes races. Missed the Breeders’ Cup but is 5-for-6 this year with all his wins in stakes, including the Bing Crosby (G1). Gets my vote for the Eclipse in this division.

2. Straight No Chaser. Scored a big win in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint in just his third start of 2024. But he doesn’t vault to no. 1 in these rankings. His only other win of the season was the Santa Anita Sprint Championship (G2), and his only other start this season was an off-the-board finish at Aqueduct in the Runhappy (G3).

3. Mullikin. Ran well when runner-up to Locked last out in the Cigar Mile (G2), and that effort was coming off of a third in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint where he was beaten by three lengths. In August he scored his first Grade 1 victory in the Forego at Saratoga after his first graded-stakes win in the Nerud (G2) at Aqueduct in July. Overall this 4-year-old colt by Violence is 5-for-10 in his career. 

4. Gun Pilot. Fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint, he was just a head behind Mullikin, to whom he was runner-up in the Forego one race prior and was third as the favorite in the True North (G2) on Belmont Stakes weekend. Earlier this season he notched his first stakes win in the Churchill Downs Stakes (G1).

5. Nakatomi. Disappointed in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint as he never really got going, finishing sixth. He had a nice win when defeating Skelly in the Vanderbilt (G1) at Saratoga earlier this season. Before that he ran third in both of his starts.

Next five: Federal Judge, Raging Torrent, Domestic Product, Post Time, Skelly

Female sprinters

1. Soul of an Angel. Closed like a rocket to capture the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint. Could that give her Eclipse? It’s hard not to be impressed by a mare who threw it down 10 times this year against the best in her own division and among older dirt females. She proved her versatility with a sprint win in the Princess Rooney (G3) and a mile score in the Ruffian (G2) earlier this season, when she topped Randomized. She’s earned her stripes, and right now she’s my Eclipse pick in a division begging for a standout. Will run once more this season, in the Rampart Stakes on Dec. 26 at Gulfstream.

2. Society. Runner-up in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint as the favorite, she came up just short, losing by a half-length. She scored her first win of 2024 in a big one a race before, defeating Vahva and Scylla in the Ballerina (G1). In her only other start this season she was third to Vahva in the Chicago (G3).

3. Vahva. Biggest disappointment of the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint was this gal as she finished eighth. Before that she was third behind Society in the Ballerina. But she stays ranked here because of her earlier successes. She delivered an impressive win in the Chicago (G3) at Churchill Downs, running down Society in the stretch. Earlier she defeated Alva Starr in the Derby City Distaff (G1) with a two-length victory after finishing runner-up to the same rival in the Madison (G1) at Keeneland in April.

4. Sweet Azteca. Was stunningly off the board at 1-9 odds in the four-horse Chillingworth (G3) at Santa Anita. Before that she had been dominant this season, winning four of her five starts. When she is on her game she is among the best in this division.

5. Ways and Means. Found the waters a bit too deep in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint, where she checked in fifth. Last out she scored a win against older in the Gallant Bloom (G2). Before that she had an impressive win in the Test (G1) for her first stakes win.

Next five: Scylla, Spirit Wind, Pleasant, One Magic Philly, Zeitlos

2-year-old males

1. Citizen Bull. Very impressive in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, in which he never really was threatened and cruised to a gate-to-wire win. That’s two consecutive Grade 1s on the front end after his impressive American Pharoah (G1) score. With a 3-for-4 record he’s locked in as the Eclipse winner for his division. No debate needed.

2. Gaming. Followed his stablemate Citizen Bull around the oval in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile to finish a clear runner-up, more than three lengths clear of the others. The Del Mar Futurity (G1) winner is 2-for-3 this season and will run again this weekend in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2).

3. Chancer McPatrick. Off the board in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, he stays near the top here. Those first three starts were impressive, with two Grade 1 wins that made him a standout early on.

4. East Avenue. He blew the break in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, and for a horse who clearly needs the lead, that was game over. But champions don’t get excuses for missed break. They adapt and still make a race of it. He didn’t, winding up ninth. Before that he looked strong, going gate to wire in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) for his second straight win.

5. Rated by Merit. He hasn’t exactly squared off against the division’s elite, but this Florida-bred phenom has been nothing short of dominant, posting speed figures that rival the best in this division. He swept the FTBOA Florida Sire Stakes at Gulfstream, stretching out to two turns for the first time last out and delivered his most impressive performance yet. He is 4-for-4 in his career.

Next five: Jonathan’s Way, Getaway Car, Ferocious, Showcase, First Resort

2-year-old fillies

1. Immersive. Aside from Thorpedo Anna’s Distaff, no one on the dirt impressed more than this gal at the Breeders’ Cup. Like Thorpedo, she’s a lock for the Eclipse. With a 4-for-4 record and three Grade 1s under her belt, she’s off to great start to her career.

2. Scottish Lassie. Fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, she was over nine lengths clear of the others. Before that she blew away the Frizette (G1) field by nine lengths.

3. Quickick. Third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, this daughter of McKinzie finished runner-up behind Immersive in the Alcibiades (G1) one start earlier.

4. Non Compliant. Unbeaten in two starts, she made easy work of her first graded-stakes test in the Oak Leaf (G2) at Santa Anita, cruising past five rivals for the win. As a daughter of Tiz the Law she already has pedigree on her side. Missed the Breeders’ Cup.

5. Vodka With a Twist. Was well beaten last out in the Starlet (G2) when finishing third. Perhaps her Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies runner-up finish took a bit more out of her than her connections had thought, so she will get a mulligan and drop only a couple of spot here. Seven starts at age 2 at this level is unheard of nowadays. She’s now 2-for-7, and although she hasn’t snagged a win in her last four outings, she’s been knocking on the door. Consistent, but still waiting to land the big one.

Next five: Quietside, Tenma, La Cara, Tenma, Nooni

A Revival for older dirt males?

Last weekend tossed a lifeline to fans of the older dirt
male division. Locked, a 3-year-old who had only one race in the last 13 months stormed back into the spotlight with a dazzling win in the Cigar Mile (G2) at
Aqueduct. Not only did he take down a solid field of older males, he also
made a bold statement. He’s ready to roll with the big boys in what finally could be a competitive older dirt male division in 2025. 

But in this game,
optimism has a way of getting blindsided by reality. Case in point, Fierceness. He recently underwent an
elective hind ankle procedure that knocks him out of January’s Pegasus, and that’s a tough
blow for fans hoping to see him kick off 2025 with a bang. His connections plan
to turn him out for 60 days, with the Met Mile (G1) in June penciled in as his first
major target. 

The silver lining? He hasn’t been retired, at least not yet. If all goes
well, he’s on track for a four-race campaign culminating in the Breeders’ Cup
Classic. Four races are better than none, but of all the
returning 3-year-olds for 2025, Fierceness is the one I’m most nervous about.
Fingers crossed, but I’m keeping my expectations firmly in check. 

Fierceness’s top rival for the 3-year-old Eclipse, Sierra
Leone, has the Saudi Cup in February on his schedule and potentially the
Pegasus World Cup in January. Don’t be shocked if he makes the full cup tour, Pegasus, Saudi and Dubai, before reappearing on U.S. soil
in late summer. 

But here’s where it gets interesting: Sierra Leone could
collide with Japan superstar Forever Young. Fresh off an impressive 2024,
Forever Young is pointing to a Middle East campaign as well, with plans to
circle back to Del Mar for another shot at the Breeders’ Cup Classic. 

Meanwhile, Kentucky Derby champ Mystik Dan is staging his
comeback in December’s Malibu Stakes (G1) at Santa Anita, a race that also will feature Santa Anita Derby winner Stronghold. Both are aiming for a 2025 return,
as are other notable 3-year-olds such as Haskell and Belmont runner-up Mindframe
and Louisiana Derby (G2) winner Catching Freedom. 

And then there’s Locked. After a breakout win in last year’s
Breeders’ Futurity (G1) and a solid third behind Fierceness in the Breeders’
Cup Juvenile, big things were expected this year. Instead, Locked didn’t
surface until October, cruising in an optional claimer before posting that
impressive in win in the Cigar Mile. Now he’s aiming for the Pegasus World Cup
in January. 

So yes, the older dirt male division has been bleak, but
with this talent pool returning, it’s fair to dream a little. Just don’t forget,
this game can humble even the boldest hopes in a heartbeat.