The First Lady at Keeneland this weekend is the final Grade
1 chance for female turf runners before the Breeders’ Cup, and it’s shaping up
to be a pivotal one. Leading the charge is Whitebeam, whom I rank at no. 1 in the
division. She last was seen capturing the Diana (G1) at Saratoga against arguably the
toughest field of the year.

With the division still up for grabs, a second Grade 1 win
would give this Caravaggio filly a little breathing room in the Eclipse race.
But she’s got 10 challengers to deal with,
including Chili Flag and Gina Romantica.

I’ll dive into Whitebeam’s case and where this wide-open
division could be headed with just five weeks until the Breeders’ Cup, but
first, let’s take a look at this week’s updated rankings.

Older dirt males

1. National Treasure. Who else deserves the spot? Yes, he lost his second straight race in the California Crown (G1) last weekend, coming up a head short to Subsanador. But he’s the only horse in this division with multiple Grade 1 wins this season. If he runs in and wins the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, the Eclipse is his, no matter what happens elsewhere. That said, my confidence in him has definitely dipped. If he falls short in the Breeders’ Cup, there are plenty below him who could snatch the Eclipse with a win in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

2. Highland Falls. Last time out he delivered one of the most impressive performances we’ve seen in this division all season, winning the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1). It wasn’t just the win but how he achieved it. From the start he took the race to Arthur’s Ride, engaging in a spirited early battle. Highland Falls pulled ahead around the far turn and never looked back, crossing the finish line with an open-lengths win. Although his final quarter was notably slow, it remains the biggest win of his nine-race career. This season he has won half of his six starts, including the Blame (G3) at Churchill Downs in June.

3. Subsanador. I had high hopes for this guy earlier in the season and he was even ranked, but like many South American imports, he took his sweet time getting up to speed here. The California Crown winner is trained by Richard Mandella, who’s had success with these types before, including  Sandpit, Malek, Siphon and Gentlemen. Subsanador is finally starting to show what he’s made of. He’s taken clear steps forward and is now a legitimate player in what’s shaping up to be a packed Breeders’ Cup Classic field.

4. Pyrenees. A model of consistency, he’s 3-for-5 this season with two runner-up finishes in Grade 1s, the Stephen Foster and most recently the Jockey Club Gold Cup.

5. Tapit Trice. Slim pickings, but this week I’m going with Tapit Trice. Why? He won the Woodward (G2) last weekend, beating Skippylongstocking. Neither of them are what I’d consider Grade 1 material, but a win’s a win, right? At least Tapit Trice managed to win a somewhat relevant race, taking down Skippylongstocking and, for what it’s worth, Crupi.

Next 5: Señor Buscador, Arthur’s Ride, Mixto, Skippylongstocking, Newgate

Older dirt females

1. Idiomatic. Even though she lost by a head to Raging Sea in the Personal Ensign (G1) at Saratoga, Idiomatic impressed me more in that defeat than in any of her prior wins. After a relentless duel with Randomized, she pulled ahead turning for home only to get nipped at the wire. But make no mistake. Idiomatic’s still on top. Next stop, the Spinster (G1) this weekend at Keeneland, where she will have no excuses against what appears to be an overmatched field.

2. Adare Manor. News of her retirement broke Thursday, so her Eclipse hopes end prematurely. She will remain in these rankings for now. In her last start, a Clement L. Hirsch (G1) win, she showed us something new. Heart and a whole new gear. On the far turn it looked like she was in trouble, but then she blew past a solid field to win decisively. She was 3-for-4 this season with two Grade 1 victories, more than anyone else in this division.

3. Raging Sea. Scored an upset win in the Personal Ensign, using her late run to edge Idiomatic at the wire. She quietly has won three graded stakes this season and adds her name to the short list of horses in this division who can end the season on top. She will run in the Beldame (G2) this weekend, where she too will have no excuses against what appears to be an overmatched field.

4. Randomized. Engaged in an early battle with Idiomatic in the Personal Ensign but couldn’t keep up and faded to finish fifth, more than 15 lengths behind. But she did win the Ogden Phipps (G1) by upsetting Idiomatic earlier this season and will have another chance this fall.

5. Sweet Azteca. Scored another easy and dominant win in the Rancho Bernardo (G3) last out. Her connections are aiming for the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint, where she will be a formidable contender on her home track. She is 5-for-6 in her career and will run again this weekend in the Chillingworth Stakes (G3)at Santa Anita.

Next 5: Scylla, Honor D Lady, Shotgun Hottie, Flying Connection, Desert Dawn

3-year-old males

1. Fierceness. He went into the Travers (G1) with a lot of question marks but answered them loud and clear, digging deep in the stretch to fend off Thorpedo Anna for a gutsy, popular win. He’s back on top of the division, and he’ll train up to the Breeders’ Cup Classic, where he’ll face a tougher field and probably won’t get such a cozy pace setup.

2. Dornoch. Really had no excuses in the Travers as he sat off the slow early fractions set by Batten Down. Still, he did win the Belmont (G1) and Haskell (G1). Out of the Eclipse race now because of his premature retirement, he will stay in my rankings for now because he is in the top three and would be on my Eclipse ballot of the season ended today.

3. Seize the Grey. The Preakness winner snapped his two-race losing streak with a big win in the Pennsylvania Derby (G1), putting him back in the Eclipse conversation. This son of Arrogate now controls his own Eclipse destiny. Just win the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Forget the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. His connections will lean Classic, and if he delivers, the Eclipse will be rightfully his.

4. Sierra Leone. Arguably the most consistent horse in this division, Sierra Leone once again fell short in a big race. Still he performed as well as could be expected in the Travers, especially given the circumstances. Unlike Fierceness and Thorpedo Anna, he just doesn’t have that tactical speed, which put him at a disadvantage with the slow pace. He’s clearly a top-two or top-three contender in this division. I still believe he’ll come through on a big day, and if he catches a favorable pace in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, he could surprise.

5. Forever Young. He looked sharp winning the Japan Dirt Classic, his first race since getting robbed in the Kentucky Derby when he was fouled multiple times in the stretch. Now 5-for-6 in his career, only those two noses in the Kentucky Derby keep him from being unbeaten in his career. This guy’s my pick for the Breeders’ Cup Classic, no question.

Next 5: Mystik Dan, Stronghold, Dragoon Guard, Muth, Catching Freedom

3-year-old fillies

1. Thorpedo Anna. She prevailed in the Cotillion at Parx by a diminishing neck, but a win is a win. It was her fourth Grade 1 victory this season. Before the Cotillion she exceeded all expectations by raising her game to finish a strong runner-up in the Travers. The Cotillion saw Thorpedo Anna regress substantially speed-figure-wise from her previous race, calling into question the validity of some of the figures assigned in the Travers. She will have a tough task ahead of her in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff at Del Mar on Nov. 2.

2. Power Squeeze. Could do no batter than seventh in the Cotillion, beaten by nearly 10 lengths by Thorpedo Anna. Previously she was an impressive winner of the Alabama (G1), where she narrowly defeated Candied by a head. She has won three graded stakes this season.

3. Sugar Fish. Huge win in the Zenyatta (G2) last out becoming the first in her division to defeat older in a meaningful race. Earlier in the summer she scored a open-lengths win in the Summertime Oaks (G2). Will move on to the Breeders’ Cup Distaff.

4. Candied. Two straight strong runner-up finishes in Grade 1 events. The Alabama came a few weeks after her runner-up to Thorpedo Anna in the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1). Before that she won the Lady’s Secret at Monmouth Park. Will take on older this weekend in the Spinster (G1)

5. Gun Song. Nearly pulled off a major upset in the Cotillion when she rallied after being passed by her rival to nearly come back and score the win. She has just one graded-stakes win this year but prepped for the Cotillion with a listed-stakes score and looks to be better now with age.

Next 5: Ways and Means, Tarifa, Leslie’s Rose, Nothing Like You, Hope Road

Turf males

1. Johannes. Scored another big win last out in the City of Hope Mile (G2) at Santa Anita for his fourth graded-stakes win of the season. With a 7-for-10 career record, he’s cemented himself at the top spot here and will be among the favorites in the Breeders’ Cup Mile.

2. Far Bridge. After a slow start to this season, Far Bridge is heating up at the right time. His win in the Joe Hirsch last out was his second straight Grade 1 win of the season. Now 3-for-6 on the season, he is very much in this Eclipse race.

3. Cogburn. He made a strong return in the Turf Sprint (G2) at Kentucky Downs with another impressive victory. He remains undefeated, now 3-for-3 this season. Although it’s tough for a turf sprinter to claim an Eclipse Award, Stormy Liberal managed it in 2018 when the division lacked a standout. Can Cogburn do the same this year?

4. Measured Time. Made his return to the races in the Sword Dancer (G1) but was upset and finished as the runner-up to Far Bridge. In his only other U.S. start this season he dominated the Manhattan on Belmont Stakes day, marking his first Grade 1 win.

5. Master of The Seas. He won the Maker’s Mark Mile (G1) impressively in his last outing, bringing his total to three Grade 1 victories in his last four starts in North America. After his win in April his connections opted to bench him. They planned to start him in the Fourstardave (G1), but he was scratched because of a foot bruise. This is why you run when you can, and it underscores the importance of seizing opportunities when they arise. Continues to drop with inactivity.

Next 5: Silver Knott, Carl Spackler, Nation’s Pride, Goliad, Win for the Money

Turf females

1. Whitebeam. She claims the top spot after Didia and Anisette lost at Del Mar. Last month she won the Diana against the strongest field of female turf horses this season. Before that she was runner-up in two graded stakes this year. Her next race is this weekend in the First Lady at Keeneland, where a win would solidify her place here.

2. War Like Goddess. Ran very well in the Joe Hirsch against the males when runner-up to Far Bridge. She hasn’t really slowed down even though she is now a 7-year-old. She has run well in all four of her starts this season, but has managed to win only once. Still, she deserves to reside at this spot.

3. Anisette. She was disappointing in her last start, finishing third in the Mabee Stakes (G2) and missing her chance to claim the top spot in the division. Before that she cruised to an easy victory against an outclassed field in the Yellow Ribbon (G2) at Del Mar. She’s 2-for-3 this season with her other win coming in the Gamely (G1) at Santa Anita on Memorial Day. Her connections have decided to train Anisette up to a start in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf.

4. Didia. She’s coming off two disappointing performances, finishing off the board in the Diana last month and the Mabee Stakes two weeks ago. But earlier she impressed with a dominant win over a tough field in the New York (G1) and kicked off her campaign with a victory in the Pegasus World Cup Filly & Mare Turf Invitational (G2) in January.

5. Chili Flag. Disappointed in the Diana, finishing ninth after winning three in a row going in. The Just a Game (G1) winner on Belmont Stakes weekend still deserves to reside in the top five. She also also run in the First Lady and looks to rebound after that Diana effort.

Next 5: Moira, Beaute Cachee, Idea Generation, Full Count Felicia, McKulick

Male sprinters

1. The Chosen Vron. Remains at the top despite his upset loss in the Pat O’Brien (G2), where he finished a close runner-up to Raging Torrent. It was his first defeat in six starts this season. By today’s standards his record is remarkable, with 19 wins from 25 starts and only two finishes off the board. Eighteen of those wins have come in stakes races. Will train up to the Breeders’ Cup Sprint.

2. Mullikin. Like Elite Power a few years ago, this horse has emerged as a late-season star. He scored his first Grade 1 victory in the Forego at Saratoga after his first graded-stakes win in the Nerud (G2) at Aqueduct in July. Overall this 4-year-old colt by Violence is 5-for-9 in his career.

3. Nakatomi. Scored a nice win when defeating Skelly in the Vanderbilt (G1) last out at Saratoga for his first victory of 2024. Previously he had run third in both of his starts. Makes his first start since that Vanderbilt this weekend in the Phoenix (G2) at Keeneland.

4. Gun Pilot. Finished as runner-up to Millikin in the Forego last time out and was third as the favorite in the True North (G2) on Belmont Stakes weekend. Earlier he notched his first stakes win in the Churchill Downs Stakes (G1).

5. Skelly. Runner-up to Nakatomi in the Vanderbilt two back and runner-up again in a listed stakes at Churchill Downs two weeks ago. He’s on a three-race losing streak, all second-place finishes. Despite the string of silver medals, I still think he’s a top-five player in this division.

Next 5: Raging Torrent, Straight No Chaser, Domestic Product, Prince of Monaco, Mufasa.

Female sprinters

1. Vahva. Disappointed as the favorite in the Ballerina (G1), finishing third behind Society. Before that she delivered an impressive win in the Chicago (G3) at Churchill Downs, running down Society in the stretch. Earlier she defeated Alva Starr in the Derby City Distaff (G1) with a comfortable two-length victory after finishing runner-up to the same rival in the Madison (G1) at Keeneland in April.

2. Sweet Azteca. She moves up to this spot, although she arguably deserves the no. 1 ranking. She delivered another impressive victory in  dominating the Rancho Bernardo (G3) at Del Mar and consistently has posted some of the fastest speed figures in this division. With three consecutive graded-stakes wins, she’s 5-for-6 in her career. Will run again this weekend in the Chillingworth Stakes at Santa Anita.

3. Society. Scored her first win of 2024 in a big one, defeating Vahva and Scylla in the Ballerina. In her only other start this season she was third to Vahva in the Chicago (G3).

4. Way and Means. Another win, this time against older in the Gallant Bloom (G2). Before this latest win she scored an impressive win in the Test (G1) for her first stakes win. Appears to be a major player in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint.

5. Scylla. Runner-up in the Ballerina last out to Society after running in two-turn races. Has won two graded stakes this season.

Next 5: Spirit Wind, Accede, Clearly Unhinged, Soul of an Angel, Almostgone Rocket.

Can Whitebeam solidify her top spot?