New Orleans

As if 14 races with a pair of Pick 5s, a quartet of Pick 4s and a dozen pick 3s were not enough, Fair Grounds made its pair of pick 5s a trio with the addition of a sequence on races 5-9.

“The Risen Star card over the last few years has been loaded with tremendous quality, and this year’s is no different,” Churchill Downs Inc. Vice President of Racing Gary Palmisano Jr. said. “Looking forward not only to seeing who steps up in the key Road to the Derby and Oaks races but also if any maidens stamp their names as contenders as well.” 

The middle pick 5 joins the early one for races 1-5 and the late one, all stakes, for races 10-14. It features a three maiden races plus a pair of competitive turf events. There are 12 first-time starters among the three maiden races, so the Horse Racing Nation First-Time Power Ratings report is essential reading when plotting your attack.

Horse Racing Nation‘s Prospect Watch gives some pedigree clues on the well-bred horses running throughout the Risen Star day card Saturday.

Where the First-Time Power Ratings report comes in is adding in trainer, additional sire and workout info to come up with a rating between one and five stars. At the current Fair Grounds meet that began in November, five-star horses have won 27.5% of races with a 17% return on investment. Four-star horses are winning 14% with a 1% ROI. One-star horses are 0-for-20.

Race 6 is a six-furlong maiden special weight for 3-year-old fillies. Ahavah is is the 3-1 morning-line favorite and merits respect with a five-star rating. Unwavering Trust also sports five stars and is a must-use given she will be a longer price. Pronghorn has only four stars but, given the lofty price, is a must use for me. Daring Madison is the best of those who have run, but the first-time starters look so well meant here, I’ll let her beat me at a shortish price.

Race 7 carries the same conditions but for males and lacks any five-star talent. That emboldens me to take a shot with a horse who has run in Great Moment, who adds blinkers and Flavien Prat for trainer Greg Foley. His first two races were not great, but the seasonal debut last out was a big step forward. It was the type of move that, as a developing 3-year-old, gives you some optimism that he can improve again at a big price.

Race 9 closes the middle Pick 5 and starts the $1 non-jackpot Pick 6. It also is void of a five-star debut horse, but Coffee Talk merits respect with his four stars. The debut going 1 1/16 miles is interesting but should not be an issue given he is by Medaglia d’Oro out of a Tapit mare. Yinzer also is a must-use for me as a a gate-to-wire threat. A repeat of his last won’t win this, but that was a sloppy, sealed surface, and his race two back can win this.

Here is my suggested ticket for the Pick 5 for races 5-9. It costs $108.

5, 11, 12 with 1, 7, 8 with 1, 8, 9, 10 with 1, 2, 8 with 3, 5.