Admittedly, the primary utility of fair odds is to identify overlays in the win pool, but occasionally they can point to a more general wagering opportunity in a race such as an extremely vulnerable favorite or a long shot worth keying in wagers.
So it goes with the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth on Saturday at Gulfstream Park, where the road to Kentucky Derby 2025 trucks along with a 50-points-to-the-winner, 1 1/16-mile race and local prep for the Florida Derby (G1).
This is getting to be cliche on this Triple Crown trail, but this is an extremely competitive group with only McKellen at 30-1 on Brian Nadeau’s morning line a true outsider with no chance.
I have Burnham Square as the most likely winner off his performance in the Holy Bull (G3), which came back as one of the fastest races of the year, according to Ragozin Sheets. His trainer Ian Wilkes knows a thing or two about winning the Kentucky Derby, having been a part of Hall of Fame trainer Carl Nafzger’s team for Unbridled in 1990 and Street Sense in 2007.
Todd Pletcher, a two-time Derby winner on his own, has Gate to Wire stretching out off a Swale Stakes win and River Thames trying stakes after winning his first two career starts by a combined 11 1/14 lengths.
Sovereignty makes his 3-year-old debut after breaking his maiden in the Street Sense Stakes four months ago at Churchill Downs. He will have to move forward to contend here, but that’s what good 3-year-olds do.
Neoequos chased fellow Florida-bred Rated By Merit in restricted stakes last year and broke out sprinting in his 3-year-old debut, and he gets Irad Ortiz Jr. for his toughest test to date.
Keep It Easy is similar to Gate to Wire, stretching out off a sprint stakes win. But being by Hard Spun out of an English Channel mare, he should like the added distances.
Any of those besides McKellen make sense as a contender, and they’ll be various prices between 2-1 and 10-1 based on the morning line, with River Thames getting the favorite designation. Perhaps one or two of that sextet will offer mild value, but I am most excited about the only horse I have yet to mention.
Solid Left was marooned in post 12 of 12 on debut at 38.3-1 and did some running early to get within 1 1/2 lengths of the lead before fading to eighth. Returning four weeks later at this track and distance, Solid Left took command turning for home and drew away to win impressively. That was a nice step forward, and we’re gambling that he has another move in him here. But at 20-1 morning line and the clear seventh choice out of eight horses, this is a strong use.
This is the type of race I am most excited to play trifectas because Solid Left is the key. If he does not hit the board, then I am going to lose. A trifecta key box with 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 8 would cost $45. I don’t like that play so need a secondary key. Burnham Square is probably the play in that regard because I have him as the most likely winner, but he is not the favorite. Playing the race for both him and Solid Left to hit the board with one of the other five is just $15. Then we can press accordingly based on board and exacta will-pay clues.
PLEASANTON, Calif. (KGO) -- Hundreds of low-income residents living at the Alameda County Fairgrounds may be forced to move within the next month.This comes aft
Photo: Santa Anita / Benoit Photo El Potente, who served notice with a dominant win in the Grade 3 Thunder Road earlier this month at
Irish trainer John 'Shark' Hanlon can make his comeback to racing from Saturday after having his licence suspended for transporting a dead horse in public view
Photo: Candice Chavez / Eclipse Sportswire Locked, a Grade 1 winner for Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher, will make the cross-countr