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If horse racing allowed prop bets, I would bet Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert to win Kentucky Derby 2025 at 4-1 or better.

Unfortunately, only individual horses are available for wagering via the pari-mutuel market, but there is still opportunity.

In the Grade 2 Risen Star on Saturday at Fair Grounds, four of the 13 entered are among the 39 individual wagering interests for the Kentucky Derby Future Wager that closes Sunday. Baffert is likely to have the individual favorite and two of the top three choices in the KDFW, and Risen Star morning-line favorite East Avenue is the biggest wildcard in those calculations.

I respect champion Citizen Bull and San Vicente (G2) winner Barnes a ton, but we have 25 years of these pools to lean on and it is a safe bet that neither will be a good bet come Sunday afternoon.

Enter the other other Baffert in maiden winner Rodriguez, who was last seen when second behind Citizen Bull in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3) on Feb. 1 at Santa Anita. His numbers are competitive, and there is plenty of upside with this one given just the one stakes try behind the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner. My best-case scenario is for East Avenue to run well on Saturday and take some money because that likely would make Rodriguez attractive.

Another I’m interested in from an I-can-forgive-his-last standpoint is Patch Adams. The Southwest (G3) was a step backward for sure, but the conditions were tricky off a layoff,and his maiden win is still one of the fastest among this crop.

Overall, as discussed with the Paddock Prince David Levitch in the video below, I like this group a lot. This has the feel of a quality, competitive Triple Crown group that will be fun to follow through May 3 at Churchill Downs and beyond.