In a move that could have significant strategic ramifications for the island republic and possibly the East Mediterranean, the outgoing Biden administration recently authorized Cyprus to buy American military equipment for the first time.

“President Biden issued a Presidential Determination of eligibility for the Republic of Cyprus to receive defense equipment, supplies, and services through the Foreign Military Sales, Excess Defense Articles divestment program, and Title 10 security assistance grant programs,” George Tzogopoulos, a senior fellow at the Centre International de Formation Européenne, told me.

“This means that the Cypriot National Guard will enter a new modernization period,” he said. “But it is difficult to make prognostics concerning future types of armaments it would buy.”

The U.S. embargoed the entire Mediterranean island—which is divided between the Republic of Cyprus in the south and the internationally unrecognized Turkish Republic of Cyprus that controls a third of the island in the north—in 1987 in a bid to prevent an arms race.

Consequently, Cyprus turned to Russia and France for armaments in the 1990s but has recently sought to diversify and has stopped buying Russian arms, focusing on procuring Western and NATO-compatible weaponry. The incumbent government of President Nikos Christodoulides expressed its intent to spend 2 percent of the republic’s GDP on defense when it came into power in 2023. More recently, Christodoulides said Cyprus hopes to become a NATO member.

Washington partially lifted its arms embargo in 2020 under the first Trump administration and completely lifted it under the Biden administration in 2022. Nicosia’s financial reforms and denying Russian warships the use of its ports undoubtedly influenced the decision.

According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute arms transfers database, Cyprus only acquired two American-made Bell 412 utility helicopters in the 1990s for its police force. SIPRI noted these came from the Canadian production line. (Incidentally, Iran bought the Bell 212 helicopter that crashed and killed Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in May 2024 from Bell Textron Canada in the early 1990s.) The SIPRI database also notes that Nicosia acquired three Bell 206Ls from an “uncertain” supplier in 1990.

The U.S. sent a military assessment team to Cyprus this week. Cypriot Government Spokesperson Konstantinos Letvmbiotis said this team will help Cyprus enhance the interoperability of its armed forces with their U.S. and Western counterparts. U.S. Air Force experts are already looking into upgrading Andreas Papandreou Air Force Base so transport aircraft and fighter jets can use it.

Tzogopoulos pointed out that Cyprus is “gradually evolving” into an important U.S. partner in the strategic Eastern Mediterranean. But there is a potential caveat.

“As a new US administration is taking over, however, I would be rather cautious,” Tzogopoulos said. “President Trump will certainly endorse the idea of selling U.S. weapons to the Republic of Cyprus, but the trajectory of U.S.-Turkey relations in the next four years can hardly be anticipated now – as several themes will be on the bilateral agenda.”

“It seems to me that Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan will find it easier to share his objections in Washington DC in the next four years in comparison to the Joe Biden years,” he added.

Trump’s policy towards Turkey, which has 35,000 troops in the TRNC and is the only country that presently recognizes that separatist entity, could impact U.S. policy toward the Republic of Cyprus in the future.

On the other hand, if things do proceed smoothly throughout Trump’s second one-term presidency, it’s unclear what kind of American weapons Cyprus might want. The island’s armored forces, helicopters, and air defense systems are predominantly Russian, but that has begun to change rapidly.

Cyprus held talks with Israel in 2023 over a potential deal for secondhand Israeli Merkava Mark III tanks, which could replace Cyprus’s Russian T-80Us. Furthermore, Nicosia received an advanced Israeli Barak MX air defense missile system, which can hit airborne targets up to 93 miles away, in 2024. That system is much more advanced than any other air defenses the island republic has ever had and could more than adequately replace its older, short-range Russian-made Tor-M1s.

Given the potentially prohibitive costs of sophisticated air defenses for such a small country, it’s presently unclear if Nicosia might want to augment its Barak MX with acquisitions of short to medium-range American systems like the Avenger and NASAMS. Ground-based systems like these are particularly important for Cyprus to defend its airspace since it conspicuously lacks fighter jets.

“From a Cypriot perspective, more helicopters and naval vessels could certainly be on the agenda,” Tzogopoulos said. “But future acquisitions depend on the capacity of the Cypriot National Guard to use weapons and, therefore, on the progress of Cypriot-American military training. So, military education and training will be the springboard to drive the process.”

Cyprus operated a fleet of 11 Russian Mi-35P helicopter gunships from 2001 until 2023 when it sold them off to Serbia.

These helicopters were nearing the end of their service life and could have cost as much as $100 million for Nicosia to keep airworthy for another decade. As Iraq found out with its Russian-built Mi-17 utility helicopters, technical and spare parts support from Moscow has become highly unreliable since the start of the Ukraine war in 2022. Additionally, continuing to cooperate with Russia post-2022 would undermine Nicosia’s objective of replacing its Russian arsenal, which has earned it a lot of goodwill so far.

“The Republic of Cyprus intends to spend more on defense to contribute to new European and American defense initiatives,” Tzogopoulos said. “It is also evident that the country, under President Christodoulides, has decided as much as possible to disengage from Russia.”

“So, the Republic of Cyprus will be in the process of replacing Russian systems, although no specific timeframe can be provided now.”

The present status of the Merkava deal is also unclear. Now that Cyprus can buy American weapons, it’s not wholly inconceivable that it might opt for American M1 Abrams tanks instead if that deal did not progress. Interestingly, France, which has sold Cyprus arms, such as Exocet anti-ship missiles and short-range Mistral air defense, for decades, is reportedly actively seeking a deal to sell Nicosia its Leclerc tank.

“I believe that both Israel and the USA will attempt to sell tanks and other weapons to the Republic of Cyprus,”Tzogopoulos said. “Although the personal relationship between President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu is cordial, their countries will be competitors in selling military equipment to others, including to the Republic of Cyprus.”

“I believe that different vehicles will be included in offers, from heavier to lighter ones.”