Which coach in tonight’s Hall of Fame Series has a better chance of being back next season: Villanova’s Kyle Neptune or Virginia’s Ron Sanchez?
Give me Sanchez — especially after Nova dropped its second game in a week to a sub-100 opponent. No disrespect to Saint Joseph’s, but before Neptune took over, the Wildcats had won the Holy War 10 times in a row, and Neptune has lost two of three to the Hawks. No need to preemptively throw more dirt on the grave, but it’s getting late early for Jay Wright’s hand-picked successor.
But enough about that. On to a trend that should excite fans — of both college and pro hoops — everywhere:
“College basketball is as old as ever …”
“Extra season of eligibility …”
“Three starters at least 22 years old …”
Blah, blah, blah. We’re tired of writing about it, and surely you are tired of reading about it. But what is the delicious irony that has emerged in this final season of COVID-19 eligibility? We are witnessing one of the best (and most fun) freshman classes in years.
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That starts at the top with Cooper Flagg. (No, Duke wasn’t wrong to give him the ball in the final 30 seconds with the score tied, even if it didn’t end well.) But of the top-20 recruits in this year’s freshman class, 12 are averaging at least 10 points per game, with half of those — Flagg (Duke), Dylan Harper (Rutgers), Tre Johnson (Texas), Egor Demin (BYU), Asa Newell (Georgia), and Will Riley (Illinois) — leading their teams in scoring. Those aren’t just early beatdowns against random directional schools, either. I expect Johnson, Riley and Harper to be borderline 20-points-per-game players all season, with Johnson (at 25.3 points per game, fifth-most among high-major players) currently leading that trio.
There are six freshmen — Flagg, Thomas Sorber (Georgetown), Liam McNeeley (UConn), Donnie Freeman (Syracuse), Jacob Cofie (Virginia) and Lathan Sommerville (Rutgers) — who rank in the top 50 of all high-major players in defensive rebounding, and that doesn’t include Newell, whose five offensive boards per game are fifth-best among high-major players. And if we’re talking assists, Demin and Kasparas Jakucionis (Illinois) are both top-five among high-major players in assists per game, with 7.7 each.
So NBA scouts and general managers are understandably drooling at the loads of first-year talent across the country. It’s early, but after a few “down” seasons of freshman talent, we could be looking at an all-time season for the freshmen.
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Duke asked Cooper Flagg to go win the game. Despite result, he’ll be asked again and again
Illinois fans in the comments, I hear you. I’m here to rectify any perceived slights toward your players, by mentioning a few more of my favorite first-years thus far:
Riley: Riley’s debut — a 31-point supernova of scoring that Eastern Illinois did not deserve — was one of the best this season, and the fact that he did so as a reclassified freshman makes his scoring chops only that much more impressive. Per Synergy, he’s in the 96th percentile of spot-up shooting, despite having only 8 points against Oakland this week. If the 6-foot-8 wing moves back a little from the midrange — where he has made only one of six attempts — we could be talking about one of the best shooters in the Big Ten.
Jakucionis: Rather than try to describe how elite of a passer the 6-6 Lithuanian is, let me just show you:
Kasparas Jakučionis with 11 points, 7 assists, 5 boards in his debut. His line wasn’t as spectacular as Riley’s (31-7-3), but the rim pressure and court vision were outstanding. Easy to see why he can be a 2025 lotto pick. Get ready for lots of no-look passes. Full highlights: pic.twitter.com/KHLQk2sL8P
— Ricky O’Donnell (@SBN_Ricky) November 5, 2024
That is not normal. There’s good reason Jakucionis is being hailed as a potential lottery pick. With his size and vision, even if the scoring isn’t consistent, there’s so much he does as a table-setter. He didn’t have a made shot against Oakland but still chipped in six rebounds and three assists. He could lead the nation in no-look passes. Fun!
Tahaad Pettiford, Auburn: After not scoring in his debut, the five-star recruit and one of the top-ranked signees in Auburn history shredded Houston’s vaunted defense in his second college game, with a 21-3-3 stat line (including five made 3-pointers) that undersells his impact. The 6-1 guard fits Bruce Pearl’s M.O. as a little bit of a wild card, but clearly, the good outweighs the negative, especially since the Tigers’ roster is so stacked. Especially after #PlaneGate, Pettiford’s role should continue to grow.
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Auburn outlasts Houston one day after altercation grounds team plane
Dylan Harper, Rutgers: With fellow top-three recruit Ace Bailey yet to make his season debut, the spotlight in New Jersey has been solely on Harper, and he has delivered. At 6-6 and 215 pounds, Harper has pro-ready size (and did a year ago, to be honest), and he’s not shy about using it. Despite questions about his athleticism, Harper is shooting 80 percent at the rim, per CBB Analytics, and that is well above the Division I average of 63 percent. Coach Steve Pikiell said he expects Bailey to play Friday versus Monmouth.
Thomas Sorber, Georgetown: You’re forgiven if Georgetown hasn’t been on your radar, but Sorber should be. The top-50 recruit was named the Big East Rookie of the Week after scoring 20 points and grabbing 13 rebounds in his debut versus Lehigh and following that up with 25 and nine against Fairfield. The 6-10, 255-pounder has some stretch potential long term — he’s 1-of-4 from deep this season — but is an immediate difference-maker in the post. He leads the Hoyas in scoring and rebounding, and if he’s similarly lethal Saturday versus Notre Dame, the deserved attention should follow.
Robert Hinton, Harvard: Last year it was Malik Mack — coincidentally, now at Georgetown with Sober — who burst onto the scene for the Crimson, but this year, it’s Hinton, a borderline top-100 recruit. I get people not wanting to watch a 1-3 Ivy League team, but Hinton, a 6-5 California native, should stash his game tape away for when transfer portal season comes. He’s being asked to do a lot (probably more than is fair), but he’s battling: His 5.5 fouls drawn per game are in the 97th percentile nationally, per CBB Analytics.
Michigan State: MSU’s defense made life difficult for every Kansas player not named Hunter Dickinson. That’ll be pivotal given this team’s shooting woes. I had flashbacks Tuesday to last season’s Champions Classic when the Spartans couldn’t hit anything versus Duke. Xavier Booker is not the 3-point marksman he thinks he is, and Tom Izzo needs to get him cutting for easier baskets, as my (much smarter) colleague CJ Moore explained in his recent film room. I feel better about the Spartans despite the loss, and definitely would not hate to see them play UConn in the Maui Invitational semifinals.
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What the film says about all four teams at the Champions Classic
Kansas: I know MSU didn’t double or trap him, but if that’s what Dickinson looks like with a not-full-strength ankle, he and Ryan Kalkbrenner will be competing for the title of “Best Big” all season. (Sometimes it feels like Dickinson is trying too hard to be a villain, but, whatever. I dig the petty celebrations.) I said during the UNC-Kansas game that Zeke Mayo gave off Remy Martin vibes, but he’s more essential than Martin was to Kansas’ 2022 title team. It’s him — not Rylan Griffen, who I thought generally played well Tuesday, or AJ Storr, who needs to get out of his head — who looks like the Jayhawks’ best perimeter player.
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The No. 1 team is a one-man show right now. Is he a security blanket or a crutch?
Kentucky: This hot take has been percolating on social media, but I’m 100 percent in: Kentucky does not win versus Duke on Tuesday if it has last year’s coach. Imagine how refreshing it must have been for Cats fans to see someone make actual in-game adjustments that contributed to a come-from-behind win. Otega Oweh is a grown man, and UK’s age overall — it’s the fifth most experienced team in America, per KenPom — is something I didn’t give enough credence to in the preseason. I’m not sold on the Cats’ point guard play, but the role definition early is promising.
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Mark Pope pushes all the right buttons in Kentucky’s rally past Duke
Duke: It can simultaneously be true that Jon Scheyer was right to give Flagg the ball with 26.5 seconds left and the score tied and that Scheyer did his star freshman no favors with that final play call. No eye candy? No ball-screens? Not even a single pass? I get that Tyrese Proctor and Caleb Foster hadn’t inspired a ton of confidence in the second half, but a coach can’t ask a 17-year-old to break down wall after wall after wall. Duke’s going to be fine — especially since it shouldn’t shoot that poorly, 17.4 percent from 3, often (if ever again) — but Flagg can’t be the only player who makes a shot in the final 10 minutes.
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Men’s college basketball Top 25: Auburn, Kansas and other first impressions
No. 2 Alabama at No. 13 Purdue (7 p.m. ET, Friday, Peacock). Half of last season’s Final Four, on one of its campuses, in mid-November? Yes, please.
Both teams have been … interesting. Alabama’s offense hasn’t been as dominant as it appeared on paper this offseason. (Shocker.) There are two big reasons:
Alabama is shooting just 30.1 percent from 3 — which is 234th nationally, per KenPom — with basically only All-America guard Mark Sears (who has gone 6-of-14 from deep) being a consistent deep threat. That should change, eventually. Alabama’s analytical, 3s-and-layups offense invites a wide shot variance, but Latrell Wrightsell Jr. (44.7 percent from 3 last season, 31.8 percent this season) will be better. It’ll help when USF transfer Chris Youngblood returns from an ankle injury. He made at least 40 percent of his 3s the past three seasons.
But the second reason is that Alabama, which has been in the top 11 nationally in tempo every season under Nate Oats, hasn’t been great in transition. In fact, per Synergy, Alabama’s transition offense is easily its least efficient form of offense, as the Tide are averaging only 0.875 points per possession in such scenarios, which ranks in the 16th percentile nationally.
As for Purdue, its first year after Zach Edey has gone about as expected, with Braden Smith making his full star turn and Trey Kaufman-Renn largely filling Edey’s shoes as the primary post scorer. In averaging 15 points, 9.3 assists, and 6.3 rebounds per game, Smith ranks seventh in KenPom’s (way-too-early) Player of the Year rankings. Meanwhile, TKR is shooting 83.3 percent at the rim, per CBB Analytics, and his passing makes Kaufman-Renn and 7-2 sophomore Will Berg one of the country’s most interesting frontcourts. Sadly, 7-4 freshman Daniel Jacobsen — seriously, where does Matt Painter keep finding these big men? — is likely out for the year with a broken tibia.
Stylistically, the teams couldn’t be further apart. That, plus two of the game’s best coaches, makes this a must-watch. I kind of side with Purdue in this one. You can all mock me in a few hours.
(Top photo of Will Riley: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)
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