So far, no one has ever cashed over $1 billion in NBA paychecks. There have been NBA billionaires, such as Michael Jordan and LeBron James, but their earnings are deeply tied to contracts signed off the court, such as with Nike.

One player, who could potentially become the first to actually crack the $1 billion mark exclusively off NBA contracts, is San Antonio’s Victor Wembanyama.

The Frenchman had a historic rookie season, to the point where most are envisioning multiple MVP and Defensive Player Of the Year awards in his future, alongside a couple of championships.

For Wembanyama to reach billionaire status off purely NBA paychecks, we’ll have to make some assumptions.

The first being that the NBA continues its annual 10% salary cap increase into the next collective bargaining agreement. This is by no means a lock, but given that is the projection for next season and onwards, we’ll have to work off that.

Secondly, we have to assume Wembanyama gets the full 35% max deep into his career, when he’s in his mid-30’s. This, too, is not a lock. Diminished play, age, role, roster construction.. all play into what the Spurs, or whichever team he plays for at that time, would be willing to shell out.

Thirdly, we have to assume Wembanyama becomes supermax eligible, meaning his rookie extension base salary will be 30% of the salary cap, instead of 25%. When he enters his eighth year, he’ll be 35% max eligible, as opposed to the traditional 30%.

NOTE: Wembanyama will be eligible for an 8% raise off his base-year compensation.

Finally, there are several ways for Wembanyama and his team to structure his future earnings. He could sign long-term deals, or he could sign short-term deals, the latter of which will see him optimize his income.

In this piece, we’ll assume he and his team times his contracts as to become a free agent after his seventh season, after which he signs shorter deals, as to optimize his earning potential.

Here’s what we know so far. Wembanyama will earn $55.6 million over the course of his rookie contract, taking up his first four seasons.

As he steps into his supermax rookie extension, Wembanyama will have a starting salary of over $56.1 million.

Assuming he signs a 3+1 (three secured years followed by a player option), Wembanyama would earn over $181.8 million during those three years, after which he’ll presumably opt out as he’s just finished his seventh season, and will thus be eligible for the 35% supermax starting in his eighth year.

Remember: The salary cap has increased 10% every single year. By 2030-2031, which marks Wembanyama’s eighth season, the salary cap will sit at just over $249 million. For comparison’s sake, it came in at $141 million this summer.

From here, Wembanyama could optimize his earnings by keeping his contracts short. A three-year deal starting in 2030 will start at over $87.1 million and ultimately pay him more than $282.4 million.

Let’s take a moment, and catch up.

Wembanyama is now through the following three contracts:

Rookie deal: $55.6 million (four years)

Extension: $181.8 million (three years)

Third contract: $282.4 million (three years)

He’s now completed 10 years of NBA service, and has earned over $519.8 million in NBA contracts over the course of his career.

So we’re just over halfway there, and he’s already 10 seasons deep. It would almost appear unlikely by now that he reaches billionaire status.

Except, once again, we have to check in with the salary cap, which now sits at over $331.4 million for the 2033-2034 season.

Wembanyama’s starting salary is now over $116 million, meaning things are about to move quickly.

He could, theoretically, sign 1+1 contracts (one secured, followed by one player option) and opt out every summer, only to reset his own max every year.

NOTE: His 8% raise originates from his base salary, meaning he could earn more by opting out.

Assuming he applies the above strategy, Wembanyama would be looking at the following year-to-year compensation:

2033-2034: $116.0 million

2034-2035: $127.6 million

2035-2036: $140.3 million

2036-2037: $154.4 million

Due to the salary cap’s annual 10% increase, Wembanyama could earn over $538.3 million over a span of just four years, bringing his total career earnings to (roughly) $1.05 billion after the completion of his 14th NBA season, where he’s 34 years old.

Of course, things aren’t necessarily destined to play out this way. Wembanyama could take on longer deals, just for the sake of security, and opting instead of the 8% raise than the year-to-year 35% reset. He also won’t have to opt out after his seventh season, delaying a significant salary bump.

And, finally, he could decide to not seek the full max after age 30 as to optimize salary construction, and making life easier for the Spurs to build a contender around him.

This is purely a thought experiment, built off the current projection of where the cap, and max contracts, end up.

The main takeaway shouldn’t be Wembanyama, and his specific path towards billionaire status, but rather how the size of NBA contracts are bound to accelerate quite considerably in the near future.

Unless noted otherwise, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball-Reference. All salary information via Spotrac. All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.