Dive Brief:

• In search of deals, 63% of consumers will shop for gifts at discount department stores, according to ICSC’s 2024 Holiday Shopping Intentions survey of 1,009 people. Meanwhile, a third will shop at traditional department stores.  
• On average, shoppers plan to spend $706 on gifts and other holiday items, the most since 2018, according to the survey. Among the top items on shoppers’ list are gift cards (58%); accessories, apparel and jewelry (52%); and toys, games, sporting goods and other hobby items (50%).  
• While nine in 10 consumers said inflation will affect their holiday purchases, 37% of respondents plan to spend more this year. Of the consumers who plan to spend more this year, 42% are doing so because of higher prices, the survey found.

Dive Insight:

The ICSC’s holiday projections illustrate the lingering impact that inflation has had on consumer spending.

While almost half of respondents said they planned to take advantage of discounts and promotions, 68% said searching for discounts and other exclusive deals will incentivize them to shop in-store, up seven percentage points compared to last year, the survey found. Nearly two-thirds (65%) of respondents said available rewards and membership programs will sway their holiday shopping choices. 

“This year has shown a more reserved, yet resilient, consumer as an uncertain economic landscape and sensitivity to higher prices have impacted many households,” ICSC President and CEO Tom McGee said in a statement. “At the same time, falling inflation and steady consumer spending have kept retail sales on solid footing throughout the year, and we anticipate another strong holiday shopping season.”

ICSC’s research also echoes other reports indicating that shoppers will return to stores this holiday season. Most respondents (92%) to ICSC’s survey said they expect to shop for their holiday items in brick-and-mortar stores. Meanwhile, a recent Experian survey found that 47% of holiday shoppers expect to shop in physical stores. 

ICSC forecasts that holiday retail sales will grow between 3% and 3.5% this year. That is similar to other research that predicts that sales will rise for the period overall, particularly between Black Friday and Cyber Monday. The National Retail Federation said it expects retail sales in November and December to rise between 2.5% and 3.5% year over year to reach between $979.5 billion and $989 billion. A recent Bain & Company report projects that U.S. retail sales will increase 5% from Black Friday to Cyber Monday to $75 billion, a milestone for the holiday shopping weekend.