Comparing Luka Doncic's and James Harden's Peaks

Comparing Luka Doncic’s and James Harden’s Peaks

Posted by Admin September 16, 2024 NBA

When Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic was becoming an overnight sensation in European basketball, the first player he was typically compared to was former Rockets and Nets and current LA Clippers guard James Harden, which is about the highest level of praise a prospect can get considering Doncic was just 17 years old while Harden was entering his prime with Houston.

The connecting lines drawn were obvious – both were and are isolation-heavy lead guards who rely on playing with pace and are every bit as good at distribution as they are at scoring. They create mismatches out of the pick-and-roll when attacking the basket, and their methods using screens are similar in that they can both either score out of the midrange or throw lobs to cutters or players in the dunker spot.

So which player has the higher peak? It’s hard to say. For one thing, Doncic is still playing at the top of his game, while Harden is on the backside of his career. For comparison’s sake, let’s look at James Harden’s 2018-19 season, which was not his MVP campaign, but arguably his best from a statistical standpoint.

The Rockets lead initiator put up a league-high 36.1 points per game, 7.5 assists, and 6.6 rebounds on 61.6% true shooting. Houston finished 53-29 and lost in the Western Conference Semifinals to the eventual Western Conference Champion Golden State Warriors, who then went on to lose to the Toronto Raptors in the NBA Finals.

The playoff performances for which Harden is often criticized, are, frankly, overblown. He averaged 34.8 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 5.5 assists in this series against the Warriors, with at least 29 points in each of those games.

Luka Doncic’s most impressive season was his most recent, where he put up 33.9 points, 9.2 rebounds, and 9.8 assists on 61.7% true shooting. While comparable, Doncic’s numbers do shine a bit more when it comes to assists and rebounding numbers, whereas Harden’s 36.1 points per game on essentially identical true shooting make him the more impressive scorer.

Statistically, they are very similar. The differences, though not glaring, come when looking at play styles. Prime Harden took more of a downhill driving approach when attacking the rim, using his athleticism to beat opponents off of the dribble and using a very slick handle to do so. Doncic plays with a bit more pace and uses his size, as he weighs 30 more pounds than Harden does, to bully his way to the rim.

The Slovenian is also more effective in the midrange than Harden was in his prime, which is another explanation for his assist numbers being better – his ability to score around the nail area makes defending him from the post so much more difficult because it allows for him to throw lobs to his bigs.

Another element that factors in is the team each player had around him at the time of these seasons – Doncic had a better supporting cast in 2023-24 than Harden did in 2018-19, which explains the discrepancy not just in scoring (advantage Harden) and assists (advantage Doncic). Harden was asked to do more than Doncic because Doncic had the added benefit of Kyrie Irving to offset some of the offensive load.

Overall, it’s difficult to draw a line in the sand between two surefire Hall-of-Fame talents who play with similar intent on the floor. The stat lines can be nitpicked – Harden has a better career three-point percentage (36.4% to 34.7%), Doncic averages more rebounds (8.7 boards to 5.6), and the two have nearly identical peak true shooting rates (61.7% for Doncic this past season to 61.6% for Harden in 2018-19).

At this point, Doncic is not far enough along in his career for a true distinction made, but when looking at the trajectory, it’s hard to argue that Doncic will not end up with more accolades than the highly decorated James Harden. The next steps for Dallas’ superstar guard are to match Harden’s MVP and to win an NBA Title.

Stick with MavericksGameday for more FREE coverage of the Dallas Mavericks throughout the NBA Offseason

Follow MavericksGameday on Twitter and Keenan Womack on Twitter.