The inside track to the NFC East crown is on the line tonight when the Washington Commanders visit the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field for Thursday Night Football.

Washington’s explosive offense has taken the league by storm, but my Commanders vs. Eagles predictions expect Philly to take the bite out of Jayden Daniels & Co.

Here are my NFL picks for the Commanders vs. Eagles, with kickoff at 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime.

Commanders vs Eagles TNF prediction

Who will win?

The Eagles opened as a -198 moneyline favorite and while the outright odds climbed as high as -210, we’re seeing Philadelphia settle in at -200. That carries an implied win probability just shy of 67%.

I like what we’re seeing from Vic Fangio’s defense in Philly and his tricky schemes are extremely tough to decipher, especially on a short week of film study. Fangio is 22-10 SU against rookie quarterbacks during his career as a head coach or defensive coordinator and young Jayden Daniels has his work cut out for him traveling to the Linc in primetime.

I like the Eagles to win outright, with a final score of 24-17.

My best bet
Commanders team total Under 22.5 (-104 at FanDuel)

My analysis
The Washington Commanders have scored at least 23 points in seven of their last eight games, but this explosive attack was held in check for the most part during last Sunday’s loss to the Steelers.

Washington still put up 27 points, but that tally was helped along by a botched fake punt from Pittsburgh that gift-wrapped a touchdown along with two turnovers from the Steelers. Overall, the Commanders came away with just 242 yards on offense — eighth fewest among all Week 10 teams.

This Thursday Night Football matchup puts Washington up against another strong defense, with the Philadelphia Eagles flexing their muscle on that side of the ball in recent weeks. 

The Eagles have gotten over the learning curve when it comes to new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio’s tricky schemes, ranking No. 1 in EPA allowed per play and as well as success rate per snap since Week 7. Philadelphia has been especially stingy against the pass, boasting top marks in EPA allowed per dropback as well as success rate against per pass. 

Fangio’s disguised pass coverage is incredibly difficult to decipher, even for the most experienced QBs. But now we have a rookie in Commanders’ quarterback Jayden Daniels getting a crash course on Fangio, playing on the road in the hostile Linc with only a few days to study.

Philadelphia seems like a perfect foil for Daniels and Kliff Kingsbury’s downfield attack. Not only do the Eagles keep you guessing, but they’re creating pass pressure with just the front four, allowing linebackers to drop into coverage. 

On top of that, Philly doesn’t give up anything deep and allows the third-fewest passing plays of 20 or more yards — something the Commanders are dependent on. The Eagles keep everything in front of them and snuff out any receptions, leaking the third-fewest yards after the catch as well.

Offensively, Philadelphia can even play defense when it has the football. The Eagles’ ground game is among the best in the land, chewing up almost five yards per carry and dominating possession (fourth in TOP) — especially over the last three weeks, with their third down conversions spiking. 

Washington’s defense is dreadful and getting bodied for 4.8 yards per carry, ranked 24th in success rate allowed per run, 25th in EPA allowed per carry, and 25th in run stop win rate at ESPN.

Last weekend, the Steelers ran 43 times for 140 yards and ate up more than 36 minutes of possession. The Eagles present a much stronger ground game than Pittsburgh and will put this game in sand with a methodical pace Thursday night.

Commanders vs Eagles TNF same-game parlay

Commanders team total Under 22.5 

Jalen Hurts anytime touchdown

Eagles moneyline

The Commanders were lucky to score 27 points last week and Fangio’s defense will give Daniels fits on the short week.

The tush that gets the push is always a live touchdown option. Hurts has eight rushing touchdowns in the past five games.

The half-point hook on the spread could be asking a lot in a tight divisional matchup, so I’ll keep it clean and take Philly to win outright at home.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

More Thursday Night Football picks from Covers

Commanders vs Eagles odds

Commanders vs Eagles live odds

Commanders vs Eagles opening odds

• Spread: Washington +3.5 (-110) | Philadelphia -3.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Washington +150 | Philadelphia -180
• Over/Under: Over 49.5 (-110) | Under 49.5 (-110)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel

Commanders vs Eagles spread and Over/Under analysis

• Philadelphia opened as a 3.5-point home favorite on Sunday night, and early money took the underdog with the half-point hook. That dropped the spread to a field goal, and play came in on the Eagles -3.
• Since then, we’ve seen this line jump back and forth between those numbers, with books seeing buyback after each adjustment.
• The Over/Under total hit the board at 49.5 points and has dropped as low as 48 O/U at some shops. Unders are typically a more popular bet on Thursday nights. 
• According to FanDuel betting insights, this is one of the most evenly split primetime matches, with bets and overall money almost evenly split. 

Commanders vs Eagles betting trend to know

For his career as a head coach or defensive coordinator, Vic Fangio is 22-10 SU vs. rookie quarterbacks. Find more NFL betting trends for Commanders vs. Eagles.

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